Osterix

Total Rating:
0 / -3

4 Comments

    • Tue Nov 18th 00:34 AM | Rating: 0 -3
      Commented on:
      General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?
      James: You convinced me. I am going to short GE. Why dont you short
      GE? According to the Disclosure, you have no position in GE. Why would you do all that research and then not act on it? It was particulary informative when you explained how GE manipulates reserves at the end of each quarter to hit its guidance. I thought I knew a lot but that was new to me. I bet GE is not the only one who pulls that stunt. What a bunch of suckers these analysts are who make a big deal out of corporate guidances. Just another Wall Street scam to fleece the suckers. I can see GE hitting 10 or below. Where is AIG right now?

      To gabe b.- How can you say GE is a "well diversified company?" In 2007 42% of its business was in lending and 30.7% was in infrastructure sales which is highly dependent on sales to developing countries which are highly unstable as a market. That is a total of 72.7% in just two business categories which currently have a very high level of risk. You either have an unusual definition of "diversified"... or a very subtle sense of humor that is beyond my comprehension.
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    • Sun Oct 26th 22:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Cheap Crude: A Flash in the (Oil) Pan
      Michael,
      1) I have a different reading on the energy situation which I suggest you consider very seriously.
      2) The prices of the oil companies could drop another 50% in the next six to nine months. If I were in your shoes, i would sell all my oil stocks and put half the money in TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) and start buying long term Puts (Leaps) in the major oil companies-XOM, CVX,COP.
      3) I also suggest you go to Wikepedia and look up John Maynard Keynes and Keynesian Economic Theory.
      4) According to George Soros, about three months ago, most of the increase in oil price and commodities in general over the past year were do to speculation. He said this was a bubble that would burst. He was right. I am a big fan of Soros. When I grow up I want to be just like him.
      5) There was a double effect. Demand for oil was rapidly increasing in Chinal and Inda, two of the most populous and fastest growing economies in the world. Now both the economies of China and India are slowing. Oil demand is also slowing in Europe and the US the other two
      biggest consumers of oil in the world. This large drop in demand will last at least two or three years. After that, as you noted, production in Russia, Mexico, etc.(also dont forget Venezuela and some analysts believe Saudi Arabia is quickly approaching the limit of what it can produce) is going to drop. According to the WSJ Mexico will cease to be an oil exporter within five years. It is only after this peak oil effect starts to kick in will oil prices start to rise. I have seen estimates in the WSJ that oil will stabilize at around $50. I would not be surprised if it
      stagnates at even lower prices for the next two or three years. This is a grim scenario, but if it is accurate anyone owning oil stocks is going to take a bath worse than what they have already taken.
      6) Like you, i believe in Peak Oil Theory. However based on my belief in Keynesian Economic Theory, I think that for the next two, three of even four years, demand will decrease faster than production, until some of the major producers run out of oil to export. -- Oster

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    • Tue Oct 14th 17:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      General Discussion on ZBB
      To wncwildbill, I am very interested in the cost feasibility of Li battery technology. I am involved at a practical applications level. I agree with JP that the cost of Li tech alone apart from other negatives make them impractical. Somone I work with is very optimistic about the Li-titanate ox technology. I still stick with the argument of high cost. It seems to me that no matter how good the LiTiOx tech is, one now has the problem of finding cheap Titanium as well as cheap Li. I am keeping an open mind on the subject. I have to- if the decision is made to go PEV for my project, I will work to make pure battery power work, but I really dont think anyone is going to pull the bunny rabbit out of the hat for vehicle batteries.


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    • Sun Sep 28th 18:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Stock Markets: The Deleveraging Process Continues
      Re Paultaut
      1) As I understand it, CDS's can involve any type of debt. that is why it is so huge a number because it is not just mortgages.
      2) I agree with you that things are moving to fast to deal with. We do need more time.
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