Osterix

Cooper: Turnaround Coming for Natural Gas

I am very interested in the Canadian Tar Sands (oil sands) with respect to how they fit into the total US energy picture. I would like to know if you have any additional info or just opinions about the following points: 1) I know that the producers say their cost is about $30 a bbl, but that is oil from existing capital plant. What I have not seen anywhere is what would be the production cost from an expansion project that started from scratch tomorrow. I suspect it would be more than $80 a bbl. 2) Aside from the actual production cost, in Canada there is a lot of political pressure building against the Tar Sands because of the environmental damage involved in production. This could lead to a freeze or decline in production, or increased costs from new environmental standards.


On Nov 14 11:12 AM jerrydd wrote:

>
> I've seen evidence NG is being sold under production costs in most
> of the NG shale plays which would make them not a good investment.
> They took the financial statements and compared them to output and
> production costs were $5-8/mmbtu and now selling for $4/mmbtu by
> overstating reserves vs actual historical output. Not good!
>
> Other details is the old rigs were dropped because the new ones produced
> far more NG than the old ones/$. Obviously production has increased.
>
>
> With the getting stronger El Nino the winter is likely to be warm.
> Lucky for us in Fla, Gulf it cuts hurricanes too.
>
> Oil sands production costs is close to $30/bbl according to the producers,
> not $80. But they are limited to what they can produce so not a market
> mover.

More GM-Magna Fallout: What Russia Will Have to Learn

To: Leo I have been following the Opel soap opera since day one because I am interested in Magna. I think you are seeing sinister plots and conspiracies where there is just a simple situation. 1) The Russians want to own a piece of a western auto manufacturer so they can have access to first class technology. 2) Magna is owned by one man who has always wanted to be a full auto manufacture instead of a parts supplier. 3) The German government was willing to put up over a billion in loan guarantees to keep jobs in Germany and the Magna/Russian deal would have kept the most jobs in Germany. 4) It was GM who queered the deal at the last minute. The Germans were shocked and furious. A lot more than Putin. GM pulled out at the last minute without warning because with the US goverment bailout it no longer had to sell Opel, and as noted by another commenter, GM needs the technology that Opel has. It may make crummy cars but its engine and other technologies are ahead of anything in Detroit. Osterix

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

The popups that your computer has viruses, etc. are spyware. If you have anti-spyware then one or more spyware infections have gotten past your security. I have ant-spyware but one got in two weeks ago and I still have not been able to get it removed by my security company. It is sophisticated enough that I need to use a higher level service that I have to pay for. There is also anti-popup softfware. Even if you have it there is the question of how good it is and how sophisticated the popups are.

On Aug 19 04:35 PM Cabdriver wrote:

> Its disconcerting that I had to reload/start over this page 3+ times
> because of advertising/popup/lies about the state of my machine.
> I just signed up yesterday, was refered to this article by updown.com,
> & some advertiser has to play games with me. I hope this doesn't
> continue lest I resign just as quick.
>
> Back to the article, interesting, but not one mention of the "Big"
> players; the Fed & that Prince [Aliweed I think, at$4 if memory
> serves, is still abuck below what he bought at the last time we went
> through this with the banking sector aka S&L "crisis"]. As a
> relative newbie to the market, I'll consider all the info provided
> in addition to the history. As for "cheerleaders", well those of
> us that are "retired" understand the motivations of fellow retirees,
> like the other banks [I'm looking at you PNC] there was a big opportunity
> to profit when "others were losing their heads", I welcome any time
> I can double my money either by folding it in half or siding with
> the Fed for a short term. Is "C" another, I'm too conservative &
> I don't think anyone has a handle yet on what the short term fixes
> will "yeild", though I am very curious how folks intend to "repair"
> Citi 1st before I'll focus on the charts/price/ect. If anyone has
> more info on the overhaul, I hope they bring it out into the open.

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

Don: We are operating on two opposite assumptions that can not be reconciled. Is there or is there not a shortage of Li for the future needs of the world automotive industry. We will have to leave this argument to the geologists and chemical engineers.


On Jun 01 02:55 PM Don Harmon wrote:

> Osterix - There are volumes written about this so-called Lithium
> shortage and nobody has convinced me yet that this is even worth
> debating further. If you do your homework you will soon realize there
> are no definitive studies that prove one way or the other that this
> fear is rational.
>
> I won't go into the data - it's abundantly available by Googling
> the topic.
>
> Don Harmon

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

Don: I need to expand on my above comment. You are selling Li batteries to a specialty market. Buses, delivery trucks, etc. Production volumes for this type market is tiny compared to the automobile market. John is talking about mostly the future for the automobile market as far as I can tell. You are comparing apples and oranges. What works for your current market and will probably always work no matter how expensive Lithium becomes will not work for the future automobile market. The costs of commercial vehicles are ammortized over 10 to 20 years. Therefore the initial cost of a Li battery is not as important in that application. A sharp cost increase in Li batteries will hurt automobile sales badly in comparison. At some point no one will want to pay the price for automobiles based on Li battery technology. This is apparent already with the Chevy Volt. Its expected price is already north of 40 thousand. What sane person would spend 40 plus thousand for that engineering pig's breakfast? Compare that with the decision to buy an electric hybrid bus. Two completely different situations.


On Jun 01 02:28 PM Osterix wrote:

> Don: You seem to miss the main point. Chemists call Lithium a rare
> earth element because it is "rare". This subtle concept escapes you
> for some reason. It is irrelevent whether Li battery technology is
> wonderful or horrible. There is not enough Lithium on the planet
> earth to supply batteries for millions of hybrid and all-ellectric
> vehicles that are anticipated in the years to come.
>
> On Jun 01 11:59 AM Don Harmon wrote:

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

Don: You seem to miss the main point. Chemists call Lithium a rare earth element because it is "rare". This subtle concept escapes you for some reason. It is irrelevent whether Li battery technology is wonderful or horrible. There is not enough Lithium on the planet earth to supply batteries for millions of hybrid and all-ellectric vehicles that are anticipated in the years to come.

On Jun 01 11:59 AM Don Harmon wrote:

> John Petersen wrote:
>
> Don Harmon, why is it that you can call LiFePO4 immature when I'm
> skeptical about the potential for future economies of scale but it's
> offensive if Jack calls the technology immature?
>
> John, I believe if you re-read my posts you will see it was Jack
> who refererred to Lithium-ion as a "non-existent" technology and
> further rated it as "immature" rather than advanced ?
>
> So, I have no basis to answer your question. Jack later admits that
> Lithium- ion chemistry is not 30 years - but 50 years "non-existent"....go
> figure.
>
> Don Harmon

Freedom of Information Act Disclosure Busts Paulson, Geithner, Bair

You should at least give Cicero credit.


On May 14 07:45 AM User 54476 wrote:

> O di immortales! Ubinam gentium sumus! Quam rem publicam habemus?
> in qua urbe vivimus? Hic, hic sunt in nostro numero, patres conscripti,
> in hoc orbis terrae sanctissimo gravissimoque consilio, qui de nostro
> omnium interitu, qui de hujus urbis atque adeo de orbis terrarum
> exitio cogitent.

How Chrysler's Bankruptcy Plan Threatens Our Markets

Vitaliy,
Generally you are very knowledgeable. I was therefore suprised when you said above that you were not interested in politics. The old fashioned name for Economics was Political Economy. It is impossible to separate macroeconomics from politics. Any political decision has an economic impact and vice versa. I suggest you read some books by John Kenneth Galbraith. At a minimum "The New Industrial State" and "The Affluent Society" This will expose you to the Institutional School of Economics view of the world.
With respect to the Chrysler situation- The normal rules of bankruptcy are intended to apply to normal situations. The collapse of Chrysler could trigger a collapse of the American auto industry which could trigger the collapse of the entire US economy. This is a crisis. The US economy is so hugely dependent on the auto industry that millions of workers are directly or indirectly dependent on it. One reason we are unique compared to other developed countries is we have no mass transit system nationally. Someone recently observed that America has a mass transit sytem that Bulgaria would be ashamed of. The Obama administration realizes this is a crisis and is in a justfiable panic. I cannot understand people like the many commenters who rant and rave about the end of the rule of law, the coming of dictatorship, the end of the free-market system, etc., when we are on the edge of a nationwide economic meltdown. Don't take my word for it, look up the statistics on what percent of the US GDP is directly or indirectly involved with the auto industry. Bear in mind that it is not just the Big Three that are at risk. The huge network of parts suppliers also supply the Transplant foreign producers. There is already a financial crisis with suppliers. They have been filing for bankruptcy in increasing numbers for the past year at least. If they are pulled down by Chrysler and GM they will stop supplying the transplants who will have to shut down their factories until they can figure out how to deal with the new situation.

Real Estate: Rentals and Sales Prices Out of Sync

I could not figure out the chart. It did not make sense. Then I read your post. Now I feel better.
The numbers are in fact incorrect. Thanks


On Apr 30 12:29 PM evergreen16 wrote:

> This article is complete BS. According to the chart above, the House
> prices already fell entire 2% from the top.
> Now, in reality, the drop is already more than these 21%, and prices
> have returned below 2003 levels. Looks like it's time to come up
> with some new charts! Because if you correct the House price curve,
> it will show you, that rents are already higher? Why don't you take
> it home as an assignment and show us some real data where rents stand!

National Debt: A Chinese Stress Test

I believe the proposed Treasury Underwritten Restructured Debt program will remove many worthless bank assets from their books without affecting the real economy.


On Apr 26 04:09 PM samba wrote:

> Will it be chinese owned? I thought that as of january they have
> almost completely stopped increasing the amount of dollar debt they
> own and are looking for a way out of the rest.
>
> I think most of the debt will be US government owned, through QE
> and other back channels such as TARP, Talf and Turd (or whatever
> the next one is called).
>
> When they write of this debt, which it ofcourse makes sense to do,
> e.g by back door nationalisation of Citigroup, it is inflationary,
> as the 150bil the government has given it stays in the pockets of
> the citigroup counterparties, however all the government has in return
> is a crap company, which isnt worth 150bil
>
> so each dollar will lose a bit of its purchasing power, if this happens
> a lot, as it did in the 30's where monetary base increased by 100%
> over 10 years, then can that be considered hyperinflation

Bar Continues to Drop Dangerously on What the U.S. Will Accept as Collateral

To: Carlos,
This is not original. I think part of the explanation is that bond investors are basically pessimists and equity investors are basically optimists. The BI's start out looking for things that will go wrong. The EI's assume that things will go well. The result is that BI's wind up making a more realistic analysis of an economic situation than EI's. The BI makes a defensive investment. He just wants his capital back plus promised interest. The EI wants growth of his capital and is willing to give up the expectation of certainty in exchange for the hope of future gain of an unknown size that is large enough to justify the risk he is taking. Many studies have shown that humans consistently underestimate risk when making investments. This tends to confirm that EI's are not as realistic in their decision making.


On Apr 19 11:21 PM Carlos Lam wrote:

> Tyler, excellent article yet again!
>
> I'm particularly interested in the unemployment forecasts predicted
> by bond spreads. I just don't understand how or why bonds would be
> more predictive of economic trends than equities. An equity investor
> is predicting that a company's product/service will generate income
> and that its management will be able to marshal resources to minimize
> costs and produce growth. A bond investor is basically predicting
> that a company will not become insolvent.
>
> It seems to me that the equity investor will have had to "dig deeper"
> into the company than the bond investor and, therefore, should know
> more about the company. Yet, time and again, the bond market seems
> almost prescient. Can anyone explain this?

Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation

Vitaliy: Your article has strengthened my resolve. I have been short XOM for some time. Sometimes I have doubts, but I think now I will hang in and see what happens in the next six months. If you are stupid for thinking XOM is a commodity play, then there are two of us because that is exactly how I see XOM. What I find fascinating about SA is the opinions in the comments are all over the map. No wonder market price movements are random and irrational.

Alternative Energy Storage Needs to Take Baby Steps Before It Can Run

To: John P. - I question your figures that an EV automobile with a 40 mile
range would require a battery of 10 Kwh. Ten Kw equals only 14 h.p.
I cant imagine an automobile no matter how small being powered for 40 miles with a 14 h.p. motor at normal driving speeds. Am I missing something or did you miscalculate, or did I miscalculate. I calculate that the minimum size battery would be 30 to 40 Kwh for a small car. I am actually working on a project so this is not an academic exercise for me.

Bernanke's Quant Fund

Andy,

It is very clear, the money is now with the angels in heaven. It is no longer in this world with us. The angels can now spend it but we here on earth can not.

Globalization, Greed and Outsourcing: Nothing More Than a Huge Trap

Francis,

I gather CLH can't afford to subscribe to the Wall Street Journal or he doesnt bother to read it. Maybe its because he has trouble with words of more than one sylllable like our current president.

I am a big fan of Galbraith. I enjoy your articles. I am a believer in the Continental European theories of economics. I am familiar with "Colbertisme" and the ideas of Mueller and List. I commented at another article that I believe the Chinese economy is beginning to implode. What you wrote is a general consensus of what is happening in China by most analysts and observers. I recommend the on-line Christian Science Monitor for anyone interested in in-depth news coverage to supplement the normal NY Times and Washington Post.

To Thunderlight: What do you want for free? Editing too?

To Roger Knights: As someone who has studied four foreign languages I would like to point out that is is extremely difficult to be perfectly idiomatic in a foreign language no matter how well you know it.
I assume Francis is Belgian. Therefore his native language is Dutch or French, not English.