Osterix

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

Don: We are operating on two opposite assumptions that can not be reconciled. Is there or is there not a shortage of Li for the future needs of the world automotive industry. We will have to leave this argument to the geologists and chemical engineers.


On Jun 01 02:55 PM Don Harmon wrote:

> Osterix - There are volumes written about this so-called Lithium
> shortage and nobody has convinced me yet that this is even worth
> debating further. If you do your homework you will soon realize there
> are no definitive studies that prove one way or the other that this
> fear is rational.
>
> I won't go into the data - it's abundantly available by Googling
> the topic.
>
> Don Harmon

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

Don: I need to expand on my above comment. You are selling Li batteries to a specialty market. Buses, delivery trucks, etc. Production volumes for this type market is tiny compared to the automobile market. John is talking about mostly the future for the automobile market as far as I can tell. You are comparing apples and oranges. What works for your current market and will probably always work no matter how expensive Lithium becomes will not work for the future automobile market. The costs of commercial vehicles are ammortized over 10 to 20 years. Therefore the initial cost of a Li battery is not as important in that application. A sharp cost increase in Li batteries will hurt automobile sales badly in comparison. At some point no one will want to pay the price for automobiles based on Li battery technology. This is apparent already with the Chevy Volt. Its expected price is already north of 40 thousand. What sane person would spend 40 plus thousand for that engineering pig's breakfast? Compare that with the decision to buy an electric hybrid bus. Two completely different situations.


On Jun 01 02:28 PM Osterix wrote:

> Don: You seem to miss the main point. Chemists call Lithium a rare
> earth element because it is "rare". This subtle concept escapes you
> for some reason. It is irrelevent whether Li battery technology is
> wonderful or horrible. There is not enough Lithium on the planet
> earth to supply batteries for millions of hybrid and all-ellectric
> vehicles that are anticipated in the years to come.
>
> On Jun 01 11:59 AM Don Harmon wrote:

Why Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Will Dominate HEV Markets

Don: You seem to miss the main point. Chemists call Lithium a rare earth element because it is "rare". This subtle concept escapes you for some reason. It is irrelevent whether Li battery technology is wonderful or horrible. There is not enough Lithium on the planet earth to supply batteries for millions of hybrid and all-ellectric vehicles that are anticipated in the years to come.

On Jun 01 11:59 AM Don Harmon wrote:

> John Petersen wrote:
>
> Don Harmon, why is it that you can call LiFePO4 immature when I'm
> skeptical about the potential for future economies of scale but it's
> offensive if Jack calls the technology immature?
>
> John, I believe if you re-read my posts you will see it was Jack
> who refererred to Lithium-ion as a "non-existent" technology and
> further rated it as "immature" rather than advanced ?
>
> So, I have no basis to answer your question. Jack later admits that
> Lithium- ion chemistry is not 30 years - but 50 years "non-existent"....go
> figure.
>
> Don Harmon

Alternative Energy Storage Needs to Take Baby Steps Before It Can Run

To: John P. - I question your figures that an EV automobile with a 40 mile
range would require a battery of 10 Kwh. Ten Kw equals only 14 h.p.
I cant imagine an automobile no matter how small being powered for 40 miles with a 14 h.p. motor at normal driving speeds. Am I missing something or did you miscalculate, or did I miscalculate. I calculate that the minimum size battery would be 30 to 40 Kwh for a small car. I am actually working on a project so this is not an academic exercise for me.