Seeking Alpha

Tactical Techni...'s  Instablog

Tactical Technician
Send Message
I like TA, and I especially like it when I'm right.
View Tactical Technician's Instablogs on:
  • Gold Breaks Down From Rising Wedge

    How much longer can we expect gold's struggles to continue?

    I personally don't think the bottom is in.

    More on that, later.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Dec 30 4:58 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Bottom Fishers And Gold: Patience Is A Virtue

    If the trend is our friend, I continually wonder why so many people try to buck it where precious metals and mining stocks are concerned.

    I admit, it would be great to write a post declaring the ultimate bottom is in for precious metals, and be right. Unfortunately, I would have to share my victory with hundreds (if not thousands) of other writers who -- on any particular day -- say the exact same thing. Of course, many of those writers have been saying that for more than two years, so we could eliminate them for blind-sided repetition.

    Gold is not the easiest game in town where technical forecasting is concerned, if only because outside factors play such an important role in its direction. Still, when there is so much technical evidence pointing towards more downside, I don't quite understand why so many people continue trying to time its bottom. I really think, if there was some way to measure it, we would see record numbers of people who have been "bottom fishing" gold and silver all the way down to their present levels.

    Why? Because so many are led to believe precious metals cannot fall any further. This happens at every important juncture on a severe decline (which is not to be mistaken with a pull back).

    We have all seen and read some very influential technical analysts over the past couple of years (whether it is someone trained in the art of MACD crossovers; Elliott Wave Theory; trend line or horizontal support; head and shoulders; and whatever other system so many of us use). The bottom line is none of it has worked, at least not where a true bottom comes in to play. We still haven't found our true bottom (unless someone has come up with something today worth taking a good look at).

    I remain convinced of the numbers in the following chart:

    (click to enlarge)

    In other words, the chart is telling me that $1124.70 is the minimum downside for gold, as it presently stands.

    The chart also tells me if the number above is breached for any significant length of time, $815.30 is where gold will ultimately reach.

    This is my analysis, and I could be wrong. I am not recommending you short gold, but at the same time, you should prepare yourselves for a worst-case scenario as to its direction, which is decidedly down.

    (click to enlarge)

    I can hear the arguments already: Look at the support, not only horizontally, but also on those two trend lines.

    Okay, but have we not been seeing enough trend lines and enough horizontal support broken, already?

    Of course we have. If that weren't true, we wouldn't be where we are now, would we?

    Let's take a look at the trend line breakdowns:

    (click to enlarge)

    How many trend line breakdowns does a person need to see before realizing playing them has only been successful on a small percentage of occasions?

    (click to enlarge)

    This is not an exercise in telling you not to buy gold, but I really don't care about the Fed, Bitcoins, QE 2, JP Morgan, or the Comex.

    Patience might be your greatest virtue if you want to invest in precious metals.

    Tags: GLD, GDX
    Dec 20 8:02 PM | Link | Comment!
  • A Quick Look At The Dow

    The Dow collided with a fourteen year old trend line a couple of weeks back, and has struggled to maintain the upward momentum it had achieved going back to early October.

    (click to enlarge)

    Even still, on a daily chart, there is really nothing here that would flash a green light to the short-the-market crowd.

    Bottom feeders looking for a bounce might want to start exploring that possibility on charts with tightened time constraints if the Dow dips as low as 15675.18. It may flush a little further than that, as it is a little too obvious (ie a double bottom).

    (click to enlarge)

    There is one other scenario to consider in the above chart: the institutional traders may have chosen to front-run the double bottom. That's for them to know and us to find out.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SPY over the next 72 hours.

    Dec 15 4:24 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.