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ajax133

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  • Gilead Buying Vertex? What's The Use? [View article]
    Less pricing pressure in Oncology from PBM's than with NASH
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Buying Vertex? What's The Use? [View article]
    Continued: always talks , at every conference I attended, about bulking up their Oncology Franchise. What makes sense to me would either acquire INCY, which is synergistic to their Blood Tumor drug,
    or ICPT, which could enable them to have a strong presence in NASH
    I would prefer INCY, or PBYI as there will beess pricing pressure on
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Buying Vertex? What's The Use? [View article]
    I agree with the majority of opinions that GILD
    should make an acquisition, but definitely not VRTX. GILD
    Apr 22, 2015. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene: A Pre-Earnings Discussion Based On Recent News [View article]
    DoctoRx: excellent article . That said I would like add two additional concerns I have about CELG. 1- They have the most Fx exposure , about 30% in the sector. That could cause a slight miss, though knowing their former CFO Jackie, I would never bet against the stock. With a market correction the stock could fall to it's 200 day moving average of $ 105 and change.
    My second concern is the overhang of the ACT patent
    suit. I believe this great Co may be bought a lot cheaper. I love the stock though it might be prudent to lighten up a bit.
    Apr 17, 2015. 02:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Gilead Now, HCV Franchise Is On Sale And The Pipeline Comes For Free [View article]
    Platty: I have no idea what your comment means. All I know is
    that they took a fatal disease and in 10 years turned it into a
    chronic manageable condition. You are obviously not getting
    my point. winning the AID's war (and we're on Wall Street not Sub
    Saharan Africa), means that they dominated GSK, MRK, BMY, ETC and
    have the largest share of the global market. They repeatedly come
    up with the best new treatment, and successfully switch patients to the next new thing (TAF). That's the definition of winning the global AID's
    wars.
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Gilead Now, HCV Franchise Is On Sale And The Pipeline Comes For Free [View article]
    Taking an historical look, GILD has been there and done that since the late 90's . They've successfully won the global AID's wars and will continue to dominate with TAF . They supply Africa with AID's drugs for cost and have made a footprint in our Sector. I used to believe an Oxymoron was someone who shorted Occidental Petroleum at $4.00 / sh, but I may revise that to include any one who is betting against GILD. I can only imagine the execution forcing The Sell Side to raise the PE to 15-16. Reality is that we're sitting on a $205 stock and just like back in 09-10 when the Street thought the AID's franchise was headed off a cliff. They were smack dab wrong. Iwould bet on the jockey ( Mgmt is their strong suit.) every time.
    Apr 7, 2015. 12:19 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intercept Pharma updates key milestones [View news story]
    GILD's buying Phenex probably took some BO premium from ICPT.
    If and when GILD becomes a competitor they will dominate the NASH
    Space, or if needed take out ICPT, only if the Co is further de-risked.
    Jan 12, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arrowhead up on rumor of Gilead interest [View news story]
    JMO : GILD needs ARWR like a 3rd armpit in August in the Sahara.
    My choice would be to shore up their Oncology Franchise. INCY
    would be a likely suspect.
    Dec 30, 2014. 02:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is The Devil? Will Gilead Fall Or Soar In 2015? [View article]
    Sweet retribution. I can easily see a scenario where a competitor
    comes out with a competitive TNF Alpha, does an exclusive deal
    with ESRX, that takes Humira (ABBV) , a very expensive treatment
    for Rheumatoid Arthritis, off their formulary. Humira is very costly,
    and as a treatment for a Chronic Disease, is a continuing drain on
    ESRX, both top and bottom line. On another matter, BIO and PHRMA,
    the Industry's Organizations, negotiated hard and tough in 2009
    with the Government to block Obama Care ,( Government ) and
    have included in the ACA a statement that prevents Negotiating
    Drug Pricing. In return, BIO & PHRMA agreed to give $80B in rebates
    (Kickbacks) to help fund Obama Care over the next decade. After this
    hard fought win, to see a Price War breakout internally in our Sectors,
    is a very sad day.
    Dec 24, 2014. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi Versus Abbvie Combination: Analysis Of Abbvie Combination Impact On Sovaldi Market Share [View article]
    IMHO, BIO and PHRMA, two of the strongest lobbies in DC representing the Biotechnology Industry Organization, and PHRMA, the Pharmaceutical Industry
    Organization went overtime in negotiating a rebate structure to help fund Obama Care. They pledged $80B over the next decade in the form of rebates, (Kickbacks)
    for a pledge , actually written into the ACA, for the Govt not to negotiate drug pricing. Do you think the Industry Organizations are going to allow Abbott to start
    a price war by having ABBV slash the price of their HCV regimen , Really ?
    One other important bit of history. GILD has been there and done that. They not
    only survived the AIDS Wars of the late 90's, against MRK, BMY, GSK etc and wound up dominating the space. Their Mgmt Team is arguably the best in
    all of Drug Development.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of Gilead's Harvoni, And Competitive Considerations [View article]
    Another excellent article and review of ABBV's new entrant in the HepC
    space. GILD has always dominated the space they are in, and Harvoni is
    unlikely to change that factoid. Your review of the potential AE's and
    increase Pill burden of Norvir, solidify your thesis. Well done.
    Oct 15, 2014. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Hitch Your Wagon To This Biotech Juggernaut Before It Really Takes Off [View article]
    Thanks for a really accurate, article that certainly was a pleasure to read.
    There is one caveat that relates to the PE of 24. Deutsche Bank, The
    ISI group and Leerink Swann, all top flight Biotech centric Investment
    Banks have the PE at 10, up recently from 9. Can you please explain the
    discrepancy. One other point on "Technicals". The NBI closed below it's
    major support of 2800 today. GILD's major support is at 104 IMHO, but
    I concur with your other metrics. With economic concerns in the Eurozone,
    ISIS, and the possibility of having to put boots on the ground, I suspect
    GILD, as well as the rest of the Biotech's will trade with the overall market.
    Oct 7, 2014. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: Consolidation Before The Next Step Up [View article]
    Excellent article. Well done. One comment: If you recall when Obama Care
    was being debated on Capitol Hill, The Bio-Pharm IO's agreed to pay the
    Govt $80B over the next decade. This was ratcheted up to $120B during
    a threat to close down the Govt because of the Debt Crisis. Part of the deal
    was that both Houses of Congress agreed to take Negotiating Drug Pricing
    off the table, in return for these increased rebates (aka Kickbacks). Should
    the Govt try to negotiate pricing, or threaten to lower prices of say Sof/Led ,
    the new soon to be approved single oral Hep C pill of GILD, I suspect they
    would be rebuffed by their prior agreement with both BIO and PHRMA IO. I
    doubt "Obamanation" could afford the cessation of these important "Kickbacks"
    Oct 6, 2014. 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of TAF To Gilead [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Yes, you are correct. In point of fact
    my actual number is $4.15 EPS by Q4 2016. The next big thing
    for GILD is their Hep B drug which seems to be rapidly moving
    through the regulatory hurdles. I believe it will probably be
    bigger than Hep C. There are far more patients in North America,
    and it is far from the silent disease, that Hep C is. ROW is also
    "Huge". The " term patent cliff " came about when GILD was
    stuck in a very narrow trading range in 2011-2012, as a way
    the Sell Side explained away the overhang stemming from
    the HIV franchise patent expiry in 2017-18. I concur that it is
    a somewhat exaggerated use of words. I'd appreciate your
    comment on the current PE market as opposed to the old tried
    and true DCF model, which is obviously not working, How do
    you view the expansion of PE's going forward. I personally believe
    the expansion of PE's should factor in the increase in productivity
    of the sector. That Biotechnology has finally matured with revenues
    and earnings, rather than the Hype of promise, during the 2000-2001 bubble, should be acknowledged.
    Thank you in advance.
    Oct 4, 2014. 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of TAF To Gilead [View article]
    Congrats ! You really nailed the importance of TAF, and alluded
    to other combos containing TAF that will be forthcoming. This solidifies
    the third leg of GILD's Three Legged Stool. IMO this will remove
    the HIV patent cliff. Since the DCF model no longer works as we
    are in a PE market, the Sell Side will have to include late stage
    Pipeline products, (PH II (with proof of safety and efficacy) and
    with great justification, expand PE multiples to 18-20. My model
    assumes GILD will do $15-$16 /sh in late 2016. My PT has now
    been raised to $325-$350 /sh.
    Oct 3, 2014. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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