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  • Sell Aussie Dollar On Broken Fundamentals [View article]
    I live I. Australia and I couldn't agree more with Richard. The OZ economy is clearly losing the premium of the commodity prices regardless if China slows down significantly or not. The miners stocks are a great evidence where they are trading at Multi years low. The economy of Australia is nothing without mining. In the height of the mining boom, the government was still running a deficit in a country heavily dependent on mining. They're talking of a surplus plan, which is something only a fool will believe.

    The US has printed their way out of recession and this is already priced in. The OZ $ commanded a premium because it was the only game in town for reserves. The cycle is reversing now and when all the real negatives are priced in, it is will be selling at a discount rather than a premium. Typically, it was a currency linked to Gold because of the risk factor, so expect corrections that mirror what we've seen in the Gold market and commodities in general.
    Jul 4 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If SAP's Hana is a success, we estimate its [database] market share rising to between 15-20% from its current low single digits. This inevitably will [impact] Oracle’s market share, but more importantly we believe it could affect the margin structure of the industry," says Berenberg's Daud Khan, explaining his 2-notch downgrade of Oracle (ORCL -2.3%) to Sell. Khan notes some Hana users are still paying maintenance fees to Oracle due to contracts, which won't last forever. The downgrade comes shortly after SAP stated it now has 1,500+ Hana customers, up from 1,300+ at the end of Q1. SAP is targeting €650M-€700M in 2013 Hana revenue - that's up from 2012's €392M, but well below Oracle's database revenue. [View news story]
    Comparing Hana with Oracle is like comparing Coke to Red Bull. One is a broad market product and the other is a Niche product. Hana will no doubt grow in the SAP installed base and the more interesting figures will be outside SAPs installed base and into the broader market. This will be mainly due to SAP sales force coverage compared to Oracle and not due to product supremacy.
    Jun 6 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment