Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Sam_oz's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chinese Exports And The Australian Dollar [View article]
    Money can move fast, so no one would invest anywhere unless they had to!

    If you make wine for example, investing in Australia is not such a bad idea. If you're getting commodities from the ground, you cannot do it from China obviously, but can export the ore to china and re-import steel. The point is some industries work and some don't. The high minimum wage and unions combined have destroyed Australia's competitiveness in many industries unfortunately.

    When you combine the labour market issues with the monetary policy, Australia had a disaster for industry. The world was printing money and interest rates across all the major currencies were are record law level while the A$ paid 3-5% at that time and the currency just appreciated and appreciated further deteriorating Australia's global competitiveness.

    The government doesn't have a strategy. Is it going to look after the business so that the business can make profits, pay higher taxes and pay employees at the proportions they see fit (Pure Capital). Or, is it going to impose higher wages and put labour interest as top priority (Social). They were happy to collect higher payroll tax and it was substantial because below 18K (36K for family), the tax rate is zero in Australia, therefore, they want to see everyone making more than 40K (80K for full time couple).

    Well, business had higher costs down the supply chain ending up with smaller profits for them and lower taxes to the government. Without money businesses cannot look after their people, which was the whole motive of higher wages!

    So, the government ended up subsidising manufacturing and imposed hidden import restrictions (OZ specifications!) to make them competitive. Well, the bigger population is paying higher prices and will demand higher wages! Where does this Vicious circle end? Australia badly needs a strong leader and need to stop having these stupid shadow government where the winning party need to listen to the losing party and all their shadow ministers! No one can run a strategy like this. Too many politics and too much effort to get even the small things done.
    May 8, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Deal [View article]
    If Greece leave the Euro or not, the problem will not be fixed! The reason Greece is in a mess is because it is living beyond its means. Greeks need to start paying tax for the government to keep spending! Greeks need to improve productivity and competitiveness, and Greeks need to reduce spending on defence. The interest rates on the Euro are zero!

    There is no better times for reforms. Exiting the Euro is not a solution as putting monetary policy in the hands of the Greek government is only going to end up in a bigger mess of money printing it's way out beyond what the EU is doing which is a lot of money printing to start with!
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Aussie Dollar On Broken Fundamentals [View article]
    I live I. Australia and I couldn't agree more with Richard. The OZ economy is clearly losing the premium of the commodity prices regardless if China slows down significantly or not. The miners stocks are a great evidence where they are trading at Multi years low. The economy of Australia is nothing without mining. In the height of the mining boom, the government was still running a deficit in a country heavily dependent on mining. They're talking of a surplus plan, which is something only a fool will believe.

    The US has printed their way out of recession and this is already priced in. The OZ $ commanded a premium because it was the only game in town for reserves. The cycle is reversing now and when all the real negatives are priced in, it is will be selling at a discount rather than a premium. Typically, it was a currency linked to Gold because of the risk factor, so expect corrections that mirror what we've seen in the Gold market and commodities in general.
    Jul 4, 2013. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If SAP's Hana is a success, we estimate its [database] market share rising to between 15-20% from its current low single digits. This inevitably will [impact] Oracle’s market share, but more importantly we believe it could affect the margin structure of the industry," says Berenberg's Daud Khan, explaining his 2-notch downgrade of Oracle (ORCL -2.3%) to Sell. Khan notes some Hana users are still paying maintenance fees to Oracle due to contracts, which won't last forever. The downgrade comes shortly after SAP stated it now has 1,500+ Hana customers, up from 1,300+ at the end of Q1. SAP is targeting €650M-€700M in 2013 Hana revenue - that's up from 2012's €392M, but well below Oracle's database revenue. [View news story]
    Comparing Hana with Oracle is like comparing Coke to Red Bull. One is a broad market product and the other is a Niche product. Hana will no doubt grow in the SAP installed base and the more interesting figures will be outside SAPs installed base and into the broader market. This will be mainly due to SAP sales force coverage compared to Oracle and not due to product supremacy.
    Jun 6, 2013. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment