Jan Rogozinski

Oh, So Now There Are No Green Shoots?

Every blogger at this Seeking Alpha website is enjoying scaring themselves by predicting the end of the world.

Surely, Mr Nussbaum, that means the market is set to go straight up. Market sentiment has been a contrary indicator for years..

We Can't Rely on the Fed to Prevent Inflation

"At some point, the leash will break, inflation will skyrocket, and the next bubble will burst."

Perhaps true. There was a lot of volatility but essentially no inflation over the long term under the gold standard from about 800 to World War I. Since then the major currencies have lost something like 95% of their pre-World War I value.
The trend is unlikely to change.

However, as of today, Your "at some point" looks to be years away. We're in a great Depression, and prices are falling.

Anyone who takes steps agings inflation today is like someone who puts on long johns and a heavy coat today because he fears freezing temperatures . If one lives in NY, London, or Paris, there will be below 32 F temperatures at some point, but not for months to come.

The Free Market Votes: Still No Change We Can Believe In

Your theory that the "free market' is the most accurate evaluator of value and is truly contra-factual. It is down right ludicrous to say that un regualted "free markets" are effective at producing wealth..

We are in the current depression because hundreds of thousands (a least) of bankers and brokers and CEOs, and CFOs (many paid millions of a dollars a year because they were considered "geniuses") bought crappy worthless bonds and derivatives; and millions on "main street" bought houses for 200% to 600% of their historical price.

In real life, half of investors are thieves and liars, and the other half are fools. On main street, all car-dealers, realtors, lawyers, etc are theives, and the average home buyer clearly is a fool.

I agree that it is stupid to bail out the banks. They ought to be allowed to go bankrupt and the top 100 officers at each bank should be jailed at Guantanamo and "water-boarded" for failing their fiduciary duties to their stock and bond holders.

However, the last 30 years have shown that we need to bring back all the governmental regulations like Glass-Steagal that the Bushies abrogated. And if the government cannot finger out how to adequately regulate a certain class of derivatives, then it should be made a crime to sell that class of derivatives.

HSBC (HBC) plans to cease U.S. personal loans and mortgages, but will continue to provide credit cards. (WSJ)

Dear Surfer:

Folk that complain because their neighbors are getting help are truly loathsome and disgusting and down-right ugly.

No one can know whether those getting help are "over-leveraged."

But what can one expect from someone that flunked out of fourth grade. (1) Learn the difference between "there" and "their." (2) neighbor . . . . not managing their money properly." "Neighbor" is singular; "their" is plural. If you were literate, you would know that a pronoun must agree with the proceeding noun in number and case." (3) You misspell "leverage."

Lordly, three really gross mistakes in one sentence. Your conceit definitely is over-leveraged.

The Money Supply and the Stock Market

The world is more complicate that you seem to think.

It's true that increasing money supply has led to bubbles. But note that the last stock market bubble was in 2001 with tech stocks. The next time Greenspan flooded the money supply, folks flipped houses, instead of stocks.

Secondly, one only gets these kinds of bubbles when one has an extremely unequal society, as we do in the US. At present the top 1% own most of the country. And the bottle 40% are scrapping to buy food. At the same time, the rich in the USA pay very low taxes because the tax rates are extremely regressive. [Hint. I'm talking about all the taxes folk pay, including FICA, sales taxes, property taxes, taxes on electricity usage, water usage, telephone usage, etc., etc. There is no one in the USA who does not pay taxes, Adan the poor pay a higher percentage of their income than the rich.]

Thus when the money supply grows, the money goes only to the top 5% who already have bought everything they want. When one is being paid 500 million a year and one already has seven homes and three yachts and 12 automobiles, there is nothing to spend the money on. So it goes into bubbles.

Because of our inequality the USA is a country of bubbles, blown by the very rich. But remember the stock market is not the only thing the very rich can bubble. Who knows? The next bubble may be in "art" again or even rare comic books.

Executive Pay Restrictions Will Deplete Wall Street's 'Elevator Assets'

Those criticizing the $500,000 limit are insane, demented and the most arrogant crooks that ever have lived
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(1) The senior staff of these companies absolutely failed. They destroyed their companies and drove them into bankruptcy. They deserve to be put in Guantanamo and tortured daily for the rest of their years. Yet they have the chutzpah to complain about a mere pay cut.

(2) They drove their companies into bankruptcy precisely because they were insanely overpaid. If someone is paid 500,000 a year, he might think in 10 year terms. But when CEOs CFOs etc are paid 20,000,000 to 800,000,000 a year, they don't need to think Moe than a year or two ahead. After a year or two they are so rich, it doesn't matter if the company goes bankrupt; they can spend the rest of their disgusting lives in debauchery.

(3) HOWEVER, it would be better if share-holders cut their pay and not the government. Set a rule that no executive in any industry can earn more than 5,000,000 a year unless the overage is approved by 2/3 of stockholders and 2/3 of bondholders in a proxy statement.

If anyone demands more than 5,000,000 a year, one knows he doesn't intend to stay at that company for long. But there may be exceptions. Let the stockholders and bondholders decide.. That would be capitalism, which now is extinct and replaced by thug CEOs and bribed compensation committees.,

Five Most Promising Emerging Market ETFs for 2009

In the market, one must consider both reality and investors' fantasies.
(1) Some brain-dead folk think that huge government deficits, 0% interest rates, and vast increases in the amount of paper money AUTOMATICALLY lead to inflation. They don't. Consider the 2000's. Greenspan kept interest rates at 1% year after year. Bush combined $3 or 4 trillion worth of silly aggressive wars with ending taxes for the rich, doubling the deficit every year. Meanwhile the Fed happily monetized Bush's deficits.
SO, DO WE NOW HAVE INFLATION?? OR DO WE HAVE DEFLATION?

(2) However, brain-dead folk still think we will inflation "some beautiful day" and their silliness moves markets. Hence, for example, the run up in gold. So one might well have bought gold, even though one knew it is, as far as reality goes, a dumb investment.

Omnipotent Property Depression: History's Ominous Precedent

This reminds me of Abelson in Barrons, who has been predicting a depression every week for many years. This year he was right. A stopped clock, as they say, is right twice a day in the US and once a day in Europe.

What I don't get is this. (a) The great rise in housing prices was a Ponzi scheme and a bubble. Real Estate prices now are returning to a price set by normal supply and demand. Why is that bad for the economy?
(2) The problem is that real estate agents have convinced Americans to believe stupidly that their home is an investment. Graham-Dodd type analysis shows that the place one lives in never is an invest men; it always is 100% an expense. 95% of folk have mortgages they can afford to pay. Those that are sane will ignore totally that the notional value of their home has declined; they simply will live in the house and keep warm in the winter and be happy.
(3) In almost all cases those that sell stocks now will sell at a loss and probably at the bottom.
(4) If the Depressions gets so bad that every company goes bankrupt, including companies such as Exxon and Johnson and Johnson, and stocks are worthless, then all money in cash or banks will be useless. Gold also would be useless. Since no one would be making anything to purchase. So if one believes this crazy crap, then one ought to commit suicide now.

Punishing the Savers

Console yourself with this thought. According to the Jewish, Christian, and Muslim religious traditions (which together are followed by most folk in the world), taking or receiving interest on a totally risk-free "investment" is the deadly sin of usury. (Basically the idea is your demanding payment while doing nothing at all is the worst possible kind of gluttony.)

For further information there is a Muslim mutual fund called Amana, which follows the Jewish/Christian/Musli... rules, and which has done well during the last year compared to other funds.

For 2000 years the three traditions have considered usury to be much the same as sodomy. (Because your interest is the reward for a sterile investment in the same way that anal-genital intercourse is sterile and does not produce children.). So if they aren't paying you your "interest," that means that you temporarily are somewhat less of a pervert than usual.

When Will the Housing Market Bottom?

One can think of houses in two ways--as a place to live, and as an investment.

(1) Considered as an investment, house prices have a long way down before they stabilize at what they were in 2000 or 2002 or at a lower price than that.

It was all a bubble based on economic reality. After all, the NASDAQ still is way below what it was in 2000 during that other bubble.

(2) The housing market probably is the most imperfect market there is. Unlike stocks or bonds (or ETFs and mutual funds), one cannot sell whenever one wants to.
With financial markets, one can get out when one is down, say 10%. With housing, one usually can't. And the market may never come back to what one paid. Think of Detroit, for example or any other rust belt town, where home values have disappeared.

Since homes are a lousy investment, there must be some psychological and emotional need that is satisfied by real property. I guess it is that one can go and touch the House. But then so can arsonists and termites.

I'm not saying, never buy a house to live in. Americans are so incredibly rude, that living in an apartment or a condo sucks. The more space between one self and one's "neighbors," the better. But the house one lives in is entirely an expense and never a investment. And houses other than the one one lives in are a truly lousy investment.

GM: Bankruptcy Is No Longer an Option

Dear Richmond:

You really should not use words, the meaning of which you do not understand.

The word "Socialism" has a very precise meaning. It means that all aspects of the economy are owned and controlled by the government. The author nowhere advocates Socialism.

For you, the word has no meaning, other than "Duh! I don't like that." Which makes your comment gibberish.

Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor?

I sure won't read anything by Perry again. As others have pointed out, the workers work, and they make something. The $5,000 an hour self-proclaimed geniuses at AIG, Morgan Stanley, Citi, neither work nor make anything. All they do is lose billions.

But that's not the point. The point is bankruptcy will end the car manufacturers in the US. Including many of the Jape plants that pay slave wages. (The good guys and the Japes have many of the same suppliers.) No one will buy a car from a bankrupt company that might not be around to make parts for repairs.

The day they declare bankruptcy, the Dow will be down 2,000 points. Soon after, unemployment will go to 30 percent between the auto workers, auto suppliers, and all the people they support with there purchases. The crash in consumer confidence will drive it to 40 or 50 percent. At the end the Dow will be down to 20.

Ultimately, the US govt deficit will be so large, that the US govt will have to default. You see, dumb-dumb, folk without jobs--and auto retirees whose pensions have stopped-- dint' pay income taxes, folks without income don't Pu any thing, so they don't pay sales taxes. Without income, they won't be able to pay property taxes.

it's not a question of "fairness." It's a question of the US surviving. Anyone that opposes giving the auto companies whatever they need to keep going--anyone that does so has an IQ in negative numbers.

The Chickens of Irresponsibility Come Home to Roost Under Obama's Reign

It's the enormous pink spot tend elephant in the room that no one notices because every eon is blind.

The trillion dollars or more that the US spends every year to maintain its military empire, with 700 bases in 110 countries (or something like that) and 18 separate spy agencies.

Whiteout even counting the spy agencies (some of which have secret, hidden budgets, the US already spends much more on the military than all the other countries in the world (including Russia and China) combined.

This has been going on since Kennedy got the US into the Vietnam War. So that's 48 years! With spending on the empire accelerating every year since Reagan.

The Republicans keep saying, "we believe in small government," while constantly increasing military spending and thus constantly swelling the size of the government. And Obama is going to be just as bad-- except that he isn't a hypocrite like the Republicans. I've read that he wants to add another 100,000 soldiers to the existing number.

Spending money on the military is like piling up 100 dollar bills and setting them on fire. Military spending is useless and contributes nothing to our welfare. The stuff we buy either is stored up until it rusts, or it is used and thus destroyed in the case of bombs, or consumed the case of ammunition.

But it gets even worse when all the trillions of dollars spent on the empire since Reagan in 1980 has been borrowed. Thus increasing interest payments very year.

Imagine where we would be if all the unneeded military spending over that last 50 years had been used to build infrastructure here at home. Or alternatively used to cut taxes by 50% while paying off the national debt.

Is the Commodities Bull Really Over?

Every American is taught from birth that she or he was born knowing everything, and that therefore there is no reason for her or him to investigate to find evidence Adan then analyze it.

For example, folk that say things like "There will be bounces, but the bull is dead."

Since you give no explanation for your opinion and no facts at all, and since we have no idea how skilled an investor you are, no sane person anywhere cares what you say.

My gut feeling is that the guy is dead on. I might explain that by, for example, noting that oil probably will go up over the long run because changing to "alternative" energy would l cost trillions upon trillions--for example, to use wind power effectively we would need a vastly superior energy grid to transmit power from where the wind blows to where it isn't blowing and usually doesn't blow.

But why should I bother citing facts when everyone else commenting to statements on this web site never cites facts. Based on the quality of the audience, I would never blog here on a lot of other blogs. What a waste of their time.
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Who We Should Blame for This Crisis

The ultimate problem Americans' rejection of the truth that there are no grays; everything is black and white. Every statement one makes either is true or not true; there is nothing in between. As Aristotle said, David Merkel either exists, or he does not exist. There is no third alternative.

Thus Americans believe that every statement is as good as any other. No only do they not seek the truth; they cannot believe anyone anywhere seeks the truth.

Given this cynical laziness, there is no monetary or spiritual reward for attacking lies and crazy statements made by nuts like Greenspan. So no one ever does.

A good example is Bush 3 trillion dollar silly little adventure in Iraq. As soon a he proposed something so obviously crazy as invading Iraq, everyone should have agreed that he is either a moron, insane, lying, or all of the above.

By not paying for the war, Bush doubled the deficit and destroyed the currency. Which played a large role in causing our current problems.

Everyone who knows anything about the subject understands that the two paragraphs immediately above are 100% true. Yet the media keeps thinking there are two sides to the story. Ya gotta be "fair and balanced." But error has no rights.

Thus, unless and until parents and teachers stat rt clear to students that there is such a thing as reality and that there is only one reality at any time, this crash will be followed by another.

One thing that can be done in November is to throw out the Republicans. I have never voted for a Democrat for President before, but now we all must vote Democrat at every level.. The Republicans in Congress have know the war is crazy, but they never stopped funding it. They must be punished.