Jan Rogozinski

http://Rogozinski.us

15 Comments

    • Who We Should Blame for This Crisis [view article]
      The ultimate problem Americans' rejection of the truth that there are no grays; everything is black and white. Every statement one makes either is true or not true; there is nothing in between. As Aristotle said, David Merkel either exists, or he does not exist. There is no third alternative.

      Thus Americans believe that every statement is as good as any other. No only do they not seek the truth; they cannot believe anyone anywhere seeks the truth.

      Given this cynical laziness, there is no monetary or spiritual reward for attacking lies and crazy statements made by nuts like Greenspan. So no one ever does.

      A good example is Bush 3 trillion dollar silly little adventure in Iraq. As soon a he proposed something so obviously crazy as invading Iraq, everyone should have agreed that he is either a moron, insane, lying, or all of the above.

      By not paying for the war, Bush doubled the deficit and destroyed the currency. Which played a large role in causing our current problems.

      Everyone who knows anything about the subject understands that the two paragraphs immediately above are 100% true. Yet the media keeps thinking there are two sides to the story. Ya gotta be "fair and balanced." But error has no rights.

      Thus, unless and until parents and teachers stat rt clear to students that there is such a thing as reality and that there is only one reality at any time, this crash will be followed by another.

      One thing that can be done in November is to throw out the Republicans. I have never voted for a Democrat for President before, but now we all must vote Democrat at every level.. The Republicans in Congress have know the war is crazy, but they never stopped funding it. They must be punished.       Oct 10 08:46 AM
    • John Hussman: Depression Fear Mongering 'Ridiculous' [view article]
      No "Pent-up Demand", Roosevelt solemny promised the voters to keep the US out of all "foreign wars." Of course he was lying. What he actually meant was that he was going to enter WWII, and once the US was in, the war would no longer bye 'foreign."
      Oct 06 10:44 PM
    • Dollar Goes Down Along with Bailout Plan [view article]
      So many nasty, smarmy comments about how much the commentator is enjoying the pain of those that are losing their home Becca the commentator is so much more intelligent, virtuous, and holy than everyone else; and he is is proud that he has never in his life made any mistake. What truly extraordinary arrogance..

      Well what should one expect? The one thing all Americans have in common is that the sole reason they or their ancestors came here--leaving family, Friends, Carree, and the village their ancestors had lived in for ten thousand years--to become filthy rich without working. (The only exception is Blacks, but only those whose ancestors came here before 1807, when the slave trade ended; Blacks and "Hispanics" coming to the US since 1865 are just as greedy, often more greedy as whites.)

      Americans have in their genes total selfishness. Well you guys deserve what you get.
      Sep 30 08:23 AM
    • The Election's Impact on the Market [view article]
      Re Sherman's post. The markets are forward-looking. All of the successful investors in history (vs day traders) look our a year or more.

      Any announcement that oil companies would be allowed to drill for oil would cause to lower options and thus lower current gas prices. If the oil producers actually found a lot of oil reserves (which no one can know until they drill), current prices for gas and heating oil would very significantly drop.

      Obama's statement that drilling off-shore and in Alaska will not lower prices "today" thus testifies to his total ignorance of economics.

      Indeed, Obama to be ignorant about all of reality, economic and otherwise. Note that although he has an advanced degree, he never has done research about anything and never has published any magazine article or book dealing with a subject other than himself.       Sep 01 08:42 AM
    • Oil Price: $100 Before $150 - But $200 Before $50 [view article]
      Dear Cam Hui:

      I suppose folk write for SA because it helps publicize their website or has some other benefit. But I often wonder if the aggravation is wrote the benefits. Certainly I have no intention of ever doing so and then putting up with abuse from folk spouting rude gibberish.

      Americans are brought up with the undying conviction that they were born knowing everything that it is possible to know.

      One result of this is that they never read books or do research, and they thus die in total ignorance of every subject.

      Another is that politicians can get away with saying, as McBush does, we can balance the fed budget by saving 30 billion a year in "earmarks" while simultaneously increasing war and military spending by 500 billion to 2 trillion a year. Duh.

      Another result is that they send these rude and hostile emails to the authors of essays on subjects they know nothing about.


      Jul 13 08:46 AM
    • Commodity Driven Role Reversal [view article]
      Why is everyone afraid to say that oil prices have gone up because of the colonial occupation in Iraq. Which was financed by borrowing.

      Why does everyone let McCain and the other Republicans get away with calling the Democrats big spenders. War is the most expensive thing there is. Saving 20, 30 100 billion a year in "earmarks" woudl be penny pinching with no benefit no effect, as long as the colonial adventure continues cosing 100 billion a month, which then is borrowed..       Jul 04 06:08 PM
    • The Deflation/Inflation/Stagnation Debate [view article]
      Housing prices were grossly inflated (or watered, as they used to say in the stock market.)

      It was the bubble of all bubbles. So why should anyone want to stop housing pieces from falling back to where they were in 2000? It's not possible so to do, but why would anyone want to do something so dumb.

      Folk are losing money because they were greedy. Bears can make money, bulls can make money; in the not so long run, pigs lose and deserve to lose.

      The problem is that Americans are dumb enough to think that the House they live in is an "investment."... Anyone that has taken either accounting 101 or economics 101 knows that all housing costs, including the initial purchase price and mortgage payments, always are 100% an expense, never an investment. In addition, housing is a totally messed up market. At least with stocks one can sell them at any time. So one can get out with a smaller lose.





      Jun 29 05:19 PM
    • White Noise Around Strong Current Negative Trends [view article]
      Degrees largely are irrelevant and don't matter. With grade inflation, it's almost impossible to flunk out.

      Check his record. That's what counts. See if he has an archive on his blog. If so, read some of the older posts, and see if they proved prescient. That takes work. But you get nothing for noting..       Apr 30 08:11 AM
    • Oil Surge, Weak Data Pare Dollar Gains [view article]
      Sorry my finger slipped.
      However, the bush league keep making threats against Iran. It was insane and dumb to commit aggression against Iraq. Which took a lot of supply out of the market. It may well be that bush is insane and stupid enough to commit aggression against Iran, which would take oil past $300 a barrel That possibility is a reason to keep some money in oil futures.       Apr 26 02:28 PM
    • Oil Surge, Weak Data Pare Dollar Gains [view article]
      aamerican's observation is accurate. I sold my oil ETFs becuae I can't tell whether oil is in a bubble or not. It's true that the world is running out of oil, but I suspect the recent jumb past 100 is mostly speculation.

      HOWEVERRmoil futures       Apr 26 02:25 PM
    • The Global Agricultural Boom: No Bubbles Here [view article]
      The shortage of food is quite real and will be with us for some years to come. Whether the real shortage is solely responsible for the surge in ag prices, I don't know.

      For those rare few that want to know something about a subject before they opine, this weeks Economist has an excellent article on the entire ag sitution. I guess it would also be OK for soeoene to read it after they've opnined.       Apr 20 05:03 PM
    • It's Time to Focus on the Value of the Dollar [view article]
      Dear Husker Bob:

      Keynes taught that the government should be a countervailing balance. That is the government should run a surplus in good times, so that it can run at a deficit in bad times. He is correct.

      The problem is that Bush ran a deficit in good times by doing away with taxes on the very wealthy while pouring 2 or 3 trillion into his unnecessary Iraq war.
      So now that we are in bad times, the government can't run as big a deficit as needed.

      Keynes was correct. Bush is a moron.       Apr 17 08:22 PM
    • Morningstar's 'Vastly Superior' ETF Research? [view article]
      For years, I was fooled by Morningstar. I didn't buy oil at $50 a barrel because Mstar "analysts" said it was grossly overpriced and would soon fall back to a more normal level of $15 a barrel.

      over all, , there is something very wrong with their entire method of viewing risk. One example. There's a fund called Permanent Portfolio, which has never had a down or negative year since about 1980. And which over time has had (unlike savings accounts or CDs) positive returns much higher than than the inflation rate. . Nevertheless, they rate it as "very risky." That's just nuts. The reality is that the fund is safer than a CD or a US treasury bond. So how could it be risky.

      I finally have decided that they confuse short term volatility with long term risk. So if a stock or fund fluctuates in value as it's return is rising, they think it is risky-- even when the overall trend always is higher, year after year. Meanwhile, they think a stock or fund is without risk if it goes along rising .00000000010% a year over time but without it's price fluctauating. in teh short term..

      My advice. Use their abundance of data. But totally ignore their so-called analyses.       Mar 13 10:53 PM
    • The John McCain Market Selloff [view article]
      It all depend on how short-term the market outlook is.

      The US now spends about $1,000,000,000,000 a year on wars and preparing for wars (euphemistically and dishonestly called "national defense") The deficit has doubled under Bush.

      McCain says he is is determined to increased military spending--both to fund aggression against more countries and also to keep the war on the Iraqi people going for a hundred years. And he also says he wants even more tax cuts for the very rich.

      So, if McCain wins, the deficit will double again, or even triple or quadruple.


      Given that if McCain wins, the dollar will be worth 5 Euros or less, any feigner would be nuts to buy US stocks or bonds. So the prospect of a McCain presidency removes a large number of buyers from the market. It's simple question of supply and demand.       Mar 09 08:49 AM
    • 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar Will Weaken Further [view article]
      In your list of causes of the dollar's decline, you missed the fact that Bush literally has doubled the government's deficit. Through his stupid continuing war on the Iraqi people (the enemy government surrendered many years ago) and his tax cuts for the very rich.

      Bush's deficits contribute to the dollar's decline through simple supply and demand economics. How many more treasury bonds will China eat, how many can China eat?

      Moreover, the weak dollar is in a vicious cycle. A foreigner in a foreign country (as apposed to the 20+ foreigners who illegally live in the USA would be a chump to buy US stocks and bonds with his own currency. (Buying physical assets as the foreign sovereign government investment funds do makes real sense, on the other hand).

      McCain is proposing more wars and more tax cuts and thus even higher government deficits. If he wins, the dollar will go to 5 Euros and oil to $400 a barrel..       Mar 09 08:39 AM
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