Jan Rogozinski

Oil Price: $100 Before $150 - But $200 Before $50

Dear Cam Hui:

I suppose folk write for SA because it helps publicize their website or has some other benefit. But I often wonder if the aggravation is wrote the benefits. Certainly I have no intention of ever doing so and then putting up with abuse from folk spouting rude gibberish.

Americans are brought up with the undying conviction that they were born knowing everything that it is possible to know.

One result of this is that they never read books or do research, and they thus die in total ignorance of every subject.

Another is that politicians can get away with saying, as McBush does, we can balance the fed budget by saving 30 billion a year in "earmarks" while simultaneously increasing war and military spending by 500 billion to 2 trillion a year. Duh.

Another result is that they send these rude and hostile emails to the authors of essays on subjects they know nothing about.

The Deflation/Inflation/Stagnation Debate

Housing prices were grossly inflated (or watered, as they used to say in the stock market.)

It was the bubble of all bubbles. So why should anyone want to stop housing pieces from falling back to where they were in 2000? It's not possible so to do, but why would anyone want to do something so dumb.

Folk are losing money because they were greedy. Bears can make money, bulls can make money; in the not so long run, pigs lose and deserve to lose.

The problem is that Americans are dumb enough to think that the House they live in is an "investment." Anyone that has taken either accounting 101 or economics 101 knows that all housing costs, including the initial purchase price and mortgage payments, always are 100% an expense, never an investment. In addition, housing is a totally messed up market. At least with stocks one can sell them at any time. So one can get out with a smaller lose.

White Noise Around Strong Current Negative Trends

Degrees largely are irrelevant and don't matter. With grade inflation, it's almost impossible to flunk out.

Check his record. That's what counts. See if he has an archive on his blog. If so, read some of the older posts, and see if they proved prescient. That takes work. But you get nothing for noting..