deuxsous's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/124562/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/162528-consider-gold-s-price-increase-as-a-currency-event?source=feed#comment-686300 686300 Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:00:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147822-the-dollar-shall-inherit-the-earth?source=feed#comment-581121 581121 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:41:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147822-the-dollar-shall-inherit-the-earth?source=feed#comment-580704 580704 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:43:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143962-as-an-investment-gold-s-just-a-brick?source=feed#comment-554081 554081
Gold is insurance for one's cash currency, not an investment per se.The chart shows that cash from 1800 has become totally worthless while gold has retained its value.

screencast.com/t/Rz1n4...]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:31:40 -0400
Gold is insurance for one's cash currency, not an investment per se.The chart shows that cash from 1800 has become totally worthless while gold has retained its value.

screencast.com/t/Rz1n4...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139495-gold-stocks-look-cheap-bmo?source=feed#comment-518776 518776
All paper assets are rallying since early March and GDX is a paper asset too. Paper assets have their time and place, but the metal is the real thing.

screencast.com/t/DpJHk...]]> Tue, 26 May 2009 18:59:13 -0400
All paper assets are rallying since early March and GDX is a paper asset too. Paper assets have their time and place, but the metal is the real thing.

screencast.com/t/DpJHk...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139226-gold-analysts-not-expecting-inflation-this-year?source=feed#comment-515469 515469 Sat, 23 May 2009 12:11:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137557-rising-long-term-interest-rates-go-hand-in-hand-with-the-expanding-economy?source=feed#comment-503655 503655 Thu, 14 May 2009 11:07:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136114-jeremy-grantham-collapse-is-over-but-monumental-challenges-remain?source=feed#comment-493866 493866
We've had a serious loss and it won't be cured quickly or easily. So accept it and get on with what's left.]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 11:27:39 -0400
We've had a serious loss and it won't be cured quickly or easily. So accept it and get on with what's left.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134483-gold-stock-fundamentals?source=feed#comment-490973 490973
Having missed the flat years and the crunch partly by luck alone, it's time to "dig into" the mines on any weakness.

Thanks for putting it into proper persepective.

TD
]]> Tue, 05 May 2009 17:03:29 -0400
Having missed the flat years and the crunch partly by luck alone, it's time to "dig into" the mines on any weakness.

Thanks for putting it into proper persepective.

TD
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129354-everything-you-need-to-know-about-junior-miners?source=feed#comment-451986 451986
That said, the royalty approach is a decent way to isolate risk/reward . Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold are good additions to a bullion portfolio. Keep in mind that a royalty owner is essentially a bank investing in possible payoffs and and hence is long a call on its portfolio. If one owns royalties in Barrick and Newmont projects, that's one thing. Juniors' royalty interests are a different animal. So don't go too deep with them without deeper thought and study.]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 00:02:56 -0400
That said, the royalty approach is a decent way to isolate risk/reward . Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold are good additions to a bullion portfolio. Keep in mind that a royalty owner is essentially a bank investing in possible payoffs and and hence is long a call on its portfolio. If one owns royalties in Barrick and Newmont projects, that's one thing. Juniors' royalty interests are a different animal. So don't go too deep with them without deeper thought and study.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129341-a-strong-u-s-dollar-isn-t-in-anyone-s-best-interest?source=feed#comment-451661 451661
Thank you]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 11:01:51 -0400
Thank you]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128278-silver-etf-good-option-for-silver-investors?source=feed#comment-444645 444645
]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 22:21:19 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126524-central-fund-of-canada-going-for-gold?source=feed#comment-432590 432590
There are perfectly US-legal ways to buy designated stored gold bullion inside an IRA. I can't speak for 401k's. Any seach internet engine can tell you where to look.]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 14:14:45 -0400
There are perfectly US-legal ways to buy designated stored gold bullion inside an IRA. I can't speak for 401k's. Any seach internet engine can tell you where to look.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126524-central-fund-of-canada-going-for-gold?source=feed#comment-431714 431714
Good points all, including the Hunt screwing by Paul Volcker and COMEX! Did you notice Paul Volcker sitting quietly by Obama's side at one of his "mouth-offs" this week? I got the message.

And notice that NO ONE will ever comment on CEF premiums or possible Canadian government policies. CEF has a golden protectorate of posters, bloggers, and sellers. It's a family business too.

Do you buy a REIT to live in? I don't think so. My advice is if you want to own gold, buy actual gold, not CEF or GLD or IAF or SLV. ]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:31:29 -0400
Good points all, including the Hunt screwing by Paul Volcker and COMEX! Did you notice Paul Volcker sitting quietly by Obama's side at one of his "mouth-offs" this week? I got the message.

And notice that NO ONE will ever comment on CEF premiums or possible Canadian government policies. CEF has a golden protectorate of posters, bloggers, and sellers. It's a family business too.

Do you buy a REIT to live in? I don't think so. My advice is if you want to own gold, buy actual gold, not CEF or GLD or IAF or SLV. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126524-central-fund-of-canada-going-for-gold?source=feed#comment-430763 430763
There are two somewhat connected questions I have about CEF that I never see anyone discuss:

1. Why should a fund containing only gold and silver bullion trade at such a high premium to the metals holdings?

2. Why is it assumed that some future Canadian government might not seize private gold in a real pinch?

As I say, these questions may be connected in that the otherwise surprising CEF premium may come from very firm belief that private gold and silver could never be seized by the sovereign state. And yet we know that governments in Canada can and have "changed the rules" on various investments over the decades. The 2007 changes in tax treatments for Canadian exchange-traded energy trusts come to mind as an example.

Anyone other than Peter is welcome to address these questions.

Thanks in advance.]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 13:00:00 -0400
There are two somewhat connected questions I have about CEF that I never see anyone discuss:

1. Why should a fund containing only gold and silver bullion trade at such a high premium to the metals holdings?

2. Why is it assumed that some future Canadian government might not seize private gold in a real pinch?

As I say, these questions may be connected in that the otherwise surprising CEF premium may come from very firm belief that private gold and silver could never be seized by the sovereign state. And yet we know that governments in Canada can and have "changed the rules" on various investments over the decades. The 2007 changes in tax treatments for Canadian exchange-traded energy trusts come to mind as an example.

Anyone other than Peter is welcome to address these questions.

Thanks in advance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125976-opportunities-and-caveats-in-the-precious-metals-sector?source=feed#comment-426424 426424
www.elementsetn.com/pd...

It trades lightly so far, but if carefully bought could work as a long term holding.]]> Sun, 15 Mar 2009 11:17:59 -0400
www.elementsetn.com/pd...

It trades lightly so far, but if carefully bought could work as a long term holding.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124697-greg-mccoach-will-gold-be-at-2-000-oz-by-year-end?source=feed#comment-418346 418346
In 1980 gold got up to $850 in 1980 dollars, but in 2008 dollars gold in 1980 was worth over $2000 per tr oz.]]> Sun, 08 Mar 2009 16:27:39 -0400
In 1980 gold got up to $850 in 1980 dollars, but in 2008 dollars gold in 1980 was worth over $2000 per tr oz.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123370-hedging-future-inflation-with-silver-wheaton?source=feed#comment-408085 408085 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 13:43:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117953-gold-as-part-of-a-portfolio?source=feed#comment-374601 374601 >
> As to your current version of your objection, it “proves too much.”
> It would invalidate all portfolio-composition comparisons of the
> most recent period, simply because the performance of its components
> was already known. E.g., it would invalidate all comparisons using
> a stock index, if the index were known to be higher at the end of
> the period chosen.
>

One way to deal with this issue is somewhat like what neural network trainers do. They randomly choose dates or time periods within their total data sample but not including current data,. They then train the network on the random data and subequently test the trained network using all data including the present. That eliminates the "current period bias" but preserves the predictive long term information in the data, assuming there is some.

It is true, however that 15 years of data isn't really optimal for predicting or dealing with what we've been through this past year. A lot of mutual funds, for example, with excellent records since 1987, got slaughtered last year. Not to pick on anyone, but Dodge & Cox Balanced Fund DODBX had a lousy year after being a rock of stability for decades. Everyone here could add many such examples.]]> Tue, 03 Feb 2009 13:11:45 -0500 >
> As to your current version of your objection, it “proves too much.”
> It would invalidate all portfolio-composition comparisons of the
> most recent period, simply because the performance of its components
> was already known. E.g., it would invalidate all comparisons using
> a stock index, if the index were known to be higher at the end of
> the period chosen.
>

One way to deal with this issue is somewhat like what neural network trainers do. They randomly choose dates or time periods within their total data sample but not including current data,. They then train the network on the random data and subequently test the trained network using all data including the present. That eliminates the "current period bias" but preserves the predictive long term information in the data, assuming there is some.

It is true, however that 15 years of data isn't really optimal for predicting or dealing with what we've been through this past year. A lot of mutual funds, for example, with excellent records since 1987, got slaughtered last year. Not to pick on anyone, but Dodge & Cox Balanced Fund DODBX had a lousy year after being a rock of stability for decades. Everyone here could add many such examples.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117953-gold-as-part-of-a-portfolio?source=feed#comment-374558 374558
Jastrow's famous book of the 1980's on gold over the ages recommended a small percent in gold as a "stabilizer, and it works for me. Cash in a money market fund could do the same thing. In fact it's not a bad idea to think of gold as a "money market fund" with a "value currency" in it.

Finally, thanks to the author for this article.]]> Tue, 03 Feb 2009 12:44:54 -0500
Jastrow's famous book of the 1980's on gold over the ages recommended a small percent in gold as a "stabilizer, and it works for me. Cash in a money market fund could do the same thing. In fact it's not a bad idea to think of gold as a "money market fund" with a "value currency" in it.

Finally, thanks to the author for this article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115284-how-the-treasury-bubble-will-burst-and-why?source=feed#comment-360000 360000 Mon, 19 Jan 2009 13:03:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114691-gold-viagra-and-emerging-markets-harry-dent-on-2009-and-beyond?source=feed#comment-356185 356185
But lack of consumer demand is not the only driver of gold prices, as you seem to suggest. Gold is insurance against economic ruin and not just an anti-dollar indicator. Dollar and gold can both be strong as in 1982-83. If Europe is weaker than the US in a contraction, we can have gold up and dollar up too. In any event it is always wise to own some gold as insurance. None of us wants our life insurance to pay off since we'll be dead. I don't really want to see gold pay off either, but I still buy both gold and life insurance, "just in case".

I enjoyed seeing your excellent website!

TD




On Jan 14 01:47 PM ROLEX18K wrote:

> The GC will crash, I repeat my previous comments only bring new observation
> for your consideration.
> Today walking in the downtown in Frankfurt, Germany, I passed many
> jewelerly boutiques many of them are brand names like Cartier, Wempe,
> Christ and all the rest is high street high end focused luxury selling
> shops.
> Most of this boutiques were empty and employees inside exceeded public
> inside, I wondered if they sold anything at all today.
> Then we went with my girlfriend to shopping center also high end
> focused, the highest floor with most expensive designer clothes was
> alost empty, the one below little occupied, the floor where are the
> cheapest brands and exit/entrance was also not busy.
> That's why Gold is heading for 700,600,500,400,300,20... but soon
> 500-600 $ per ounze is very likely.]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 23:53:18 -0500
But lack of consumer demand is not the only driver of gold prices, as you seem to suggest. Gold is insurance against economic ruin and not just an anti-dollar indicator. Dollar and gold can both be strong as in 1982-83. If Europe is weaker than the US in a contraction, we can have gold up and dollar up too. In any event it is always wise to own some gold as insurance. None of us wants our life insurance to pay off since we'll be dead. I don't really want to see gold pay off either, but I still buy both gold and life insurance, "just in case".

I enjoyed seeing your excellent website!

TD




On Jan 14 01:47 PM ROLEX18K wrote:

> The GC will crash, I repeat my previous comments only bring new observation
> for your consideration.
> Today walking in the downtown in Frankfurt, Germany, I passed many
> jewelerly boutiques many of them are brand names like Cartier, Wempe,
> Christ and all the rest is high street high end focused luxury selling
> shops.
> Most of this boutiques were empty and employees inside exceeded public
> inside, I wondered if they sold anything at all today.
> Then we went with my girlfriend to shopping center also high end
> focused, the highest floor with most expensive designer clothes was
> alost empty, the one below little occupied, the floor where are the
> cheapest brands and exit/entrance was also not busy.
> That's why Gold is heading for 700,600,500,400,300,20... but soon
> 500-600 $ per ounze is very likely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114691-gold-viagra-and-emerging-markets-harry-dent-on-2009-and-beyond?source=feed#comment-355735 355735 This was obviously an interview with Dent that was poorly transcribed to paper and poorly edited. Never mind. It's a real barn burner, and I thank Andrew Mickey for allowing us to see it here in any form!

I read the Dent Roaring 2000's book too. It was published in 1998, and he changed his opinion later and posted a long update on his changed opinions at his website for free in 2006 or 2007. His later opinon was that there was be a housing bubble and then the last bubble would be commodities,,,and both happened. they both happened a little earlier than he suspected, but they happened.

What he says makes a lot of sense in a broad brush, long term scope. Most people today have attention spans of maybe 15 minutes at best, so it will seem only like BS to them as they wander around in the darkness of their minds. We are going through a massive change, not just a garden variety deep recession. We need to get our minds used to this and look for ways to make it work for ourselves and others. Washington under Obama is not the answer unless they can change their minds quickly. Loaded down with failed Klintonistas like "City Bob" Rubin and Barney and Schumer and Reid it's going to be hard to change those leaden biases.

In any event there is always a way to make money in markets if your mind is open for business. Most people will remain in denial for years and years, as usual. It's time to get busy studying what's happeneing and give up bitching about how it isn't like it used to be. It never IS like it used to be, but this time it's a LOT different! Cheer up and get rich.
]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 13:37:42 -0500 This was obviously an interview with Dent that was poorly transcribed to paper and poorly edited. Never mind. It's a real barn burner, and I thank Andrew Mickey for allowing us to see it here in any form!

I read the Dent Roaring 2000's book too. It was published in 1998, and he changed his opinion later and posted a long update on his changed opinions at his website for free in 2006 or 2007. His later opinon was that there was be a housing bubble and then the last bubble would be commodities,,,and both happened. they both happened a little earlier than he suspected, but they happened.

What he says makes a lot of sense in a broad brush, long term scope. Most people today have attention spans of maybe 15 minutes at best, so it will seem only like BS to them as they wander around in the darkness of their minds. We are going through a massive change, not just a garden variety deep recession. We need to get our minds used to this and look for ways to make it work for ourselves and others. Washington under Obama is not the answer unless they can change their minds quickly. Loaded down with failed Klintonistas like "City Bob" Rubin and Barney and Schumer and Reid it's going to be hard to change those leaden biases.

In any event there is always a way to make money in markets if your mind is open for business. Most people will remain in denial for years and years, as usual. It's time to get busy studying what's happeneing and give up bitching about how it isn't like it used to be. It never IS like it used to be, but this time it's a LOT different! Cheer up and get rich.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114139-wealth-watch-redefining-rich-and-poor-in-a-shrinking-global-economy?source=feed#comment-352882 352882 twocents.blogs.com/web...


On Jan 11 09:02 AM Leftfield wrote:

> A good description of our situation. But, trickle-down="str... to
> the sewer?" What are the unaccountable, secret TARP and the $trillion+
> the Treasury and Fed have lavished on the connected so far? These
> rich have apparently bought and paid for a press that long touted
> the societal virtues of rewarding achievement. Theirs has been to
> leverage the use of o.p.m. to previously unreached levels and position
> themselves at the top of this food chain too large to fail, too connected
> to forfeit even bonuses and parachutes.
>
> These people as a group don't follow any philosophy other than, get
> all you can. They've made economic life very difficult for vast numbers
> of the lower strata with their policies which were supposedly market-based.
>
>
> There's no end of blame throughout society which has voted the same
> miscreants in, and, look at teachers unions and the educational beaureacracy.
> Bad education here is not due to lack of funds.
>
> While I fear any and all big government "solutions," I will put concern
> for the rich last.]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 22:50:12 -0500 twocents.blogs.com/web...


On Jan 11 09:02 AM Leftfield wrote:

> A good description of our situation. But, trickle-down="str... to
> the sewer?" What are the unaccountable, secret TARP and the $trillion+
> the Treasury and Fed have lavished on the connected so far? These
> rich have apparently bought and paid for a press that long touted
> the societal virtues of rewarding achievement. Theirs has been to
> leverage the use of o.p.m. to previously unreached levels and position
> themselves at the top of this food chain too large to fail, too connected
> to forfeit even bonuses and parachutes.
>
> These people as a group don't follow any philosophy other than, get
> all you can. They've made economic life very difficult for vast numbers
> of the lower strata with their policies which were supposedly market-based.
>
>
> There's no end of blame throughout society which has voted the same
> miscreants in, and, look at teachers unions and the educational beaureacracy.
> Bad education here is not due to lack of funds.
>
> While I fear any and all big government "solutions," I will put concern
> for the rich last.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114139-wealth-watch-redefining-rich-and-poor-in-a-shrinking-global-economy?source=feed#comment-352872 352872
Your point I think supports the idea that there will be excess supply at every economic level, not just amongst the wealthy. This is not a haves versus have nots as much as it is a liquids versus illiquids market, as you suggest. The politicians think the way to solve the problem is to take from the liquid and give to the illiquid, but I see this as counterproductive to recovery. If prudent liquid groups cannot gain traction, how can we recover?

Thanks again for an unusually stimulating post.

Tom D]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 22:27:39 -0500
Your point I think supports the idea that there will be excess supply at every economic level, not just amongst the wealthy. This is not a haves versus have nots as much as it is a liquids versus illiquids market, as you suggest. The politicians think the way to solve the problem is to take from the liquid and give to the illiquid, but I see this as counterproductive to recovery. If prudent liquid groups cannot gain traction, how can we recover?

Thanks again for an unusually stimulating post.

Tom D]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114172-looking-for-opportunities-in-an-irrational-market-place?source=feed#comment-352855 352855
The Russians and the Persians are trying to spook the markets up by actions in Ukraine and Gaza, but it isn't working yet. Neverthless why not top up the tank while prices are low?]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 22:11:26 -0500
The Russians and the Persians are trying to spook the markets up by actions in Ukraine and Gaza, but it isn't working yet. Neverthless why not top up the tank while prices are low?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113507-gold-and-oil-a-long-term-play-on-the-economy?source=feed#comment-349161 349161
That's a very interesting oil price history which I've not seen that far back before. When February NYMEX NY Harbor crude oil futures got as low as $36.15 per bbl recently and the NY cash was at $32.15 on December 24th and 26th it was virtually on your post-1970 average world price. Since then the NY cash price bounced as high at $48.81 earlier this week . With your data it's easier to consider the possibility that the long term average price is good support for the time being.

screencast.com/t/rUcJi...]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 19:26:04 -0500
That's a very interesting oil price history which I've not seen that far back before. When February NYMEX NY Harbor crude oil futures got as low as $36.15 per bbl recently and the NY cash was at $32.15 on December 24th and 26th it was virtually on your post-1970 average world price. Since then the NY cash price bounced as high at $48.81 earlier this week . With your data it's easier to consider the possibility that the long term average price is good support for the time being.

screencast.com/t/rUcJi...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113507-gold-and-oil-a-long-term-play-on-the-economy?source=feed#comment-348960 348960 Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:41:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112731-will-the-new-gcc-single-currency-include-gold?source=feed#comment-345955 345955 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 22:41:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113032-gaza-war-expect-a-spike-in-oil-gold?source=feed#comment-345953 345953 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 22:37:27 -0500