deuxsous

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

My wife and I went to a fine restaurant in Scottsdale AZ for dinner yesterday. Six months ago it would be full with long waiting times to be seated, even with table reservations. Yesterday there were only four tables in use out of 25!

But lack of consumer demand is not the only driver of gold prices, as you seem to suggest. Gold is insurance against economic ruin and not just an anti-dollar indicator. Dollar and gold can both be strong as in 1982-83. If Europe is weaker than the US in a contraction, we can have gold up and dollar up too. In any event it is always wise to own some gold as insurance. None of us wants our life insurance to pay off since we'll be dead. I don't really want to see gold pay off either, but I still buy both gold and life insurance, "just in case".

I enjoyed seeing your excellent website!

TD




On Jan 14 01:47 PM ROLEX18K wrote:

> The GC will crash, I repeat my previous comments only bring new observation
> for your consideration.
> Today walking in the downtown in Frankfurt, Germany, I passed many
> jewelerly boutiques many of them are brand names like Cartier, Wempe,
> Christ and all the rest is high street high end focused luxury selling
> shops.
> Most of this boutiques were empty and employees inside exceeded public
> inside, I wondered if they sold anything at all today.
> Then we went with my girlfriend to shopping center also high end
> focused, the highest floor with most expensive designer clothes was
> alost empty, the one below little occupied, the floor where are the
> cheapest brands and exit/entrance was also not busy.
> That's why Gold is heading for 700,600,500,400,300,20... but soon
> 500-600 $ per ounze is very likely.

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

This was obviously an interview with Dent that was poorly transcribed to paper and poorly edited. Never mind. It's a real barn burner, and I thank Andrew Mickey for allowing us to see it here in any form!

I read the Dent Roaring 2000's book too. It was published in 1998, and he changed his opinion later and posted a long update on his changed opinions at his website for free in 2006 or 2007. His later opinon was that there was be a housing bubble and then the last bubble would be commodities,,,and both happened. they both happened a little earlier than he suspected, but they happened.

What he says makes a lot of sense in a broad brush, long term scope. Most people today have attention spans of maybe 15 minutes at best, so it will seem only like BS to them as they wander around in the darkness of their minds. We are going through a massive change, not just a garden variety deep recession. We need to get our minds used to this and look for ways to make it work for ourselves and others. Washington under Obama is not the answer unless they can change their minds quickly. Loaded down with failed Klintonistas like "City Bob" Rubin and Barney and Schumer and Reid it's going to be hard to change those leaden biases.

In any event there is always a way to make money in markets if your mind is open for business. Most people will remain in denial for years and years, as usual. It's time to get busy studying what's happeneing and give up bitching about how it isn't like it used to be. It never IS like it used to be, but this time it's a LOT different! Cheer up and get rich.

The Rebirth of Gold and Silver?

I agree. On the long term charts silver looks very much like where it was for most of 1974 and 1975 after a similar 5 wave rise from 1967. I think silver's going much higher later on, probably next year unless world recession goes deeper than I think it will. In that case it may take two years of consolidation at these lower prices.

The Rebirth of Gold and Silver?

twocents.blogs.com/web...

Dollar Rally Won't Last Forever; Don't Give Up on Gold

twocents.blogs.com/web...

Common Misconceptions About the Fed and Gold

Save all the BS about the FED and the US dollar. Gold goes up in inflationary times which typically last 20-30 years. We're just ten years into it. I suspect we will have another big pullback before long which, of course, no one will buy since they only get excited when it goes up.....:))))

Gold, Stocks and Stagflation

If your gold position is paid-for physical gold stored safely by you, then just hold it and forget about it. That's what I did in the 1970's.

But if you are a modern paper gold trader, just burn the paper and move on to the next paper fad.

17 Commodity ETFs to Hedge Your Portfolio

it's an equally-weighted index so it isn't as volatile as the GoldiSax Index which is well over 50% crude oil. So it may not be the best choice for short term trading, but it's super for long term diversification of a total portfolio. i'm using it as an inflation hedge in an income portfolio.

another similar one is PIMCO's PCRDX or PCRIX which uses a DJ-AIG indexed note over a TIPS base. It pays about 4% on the TIPS, so it works well in a tax-deferrred IRA or similar account as a double barreled inflation hedge.

17 Commodity ETFs to Hedge Your Portfolio

Also there is old CEF from Canada, also traded in the US. It is equally-weighted in gold and silver and has been around since the 1980's.

17 Commodity ETFs to Hedge Your Portfolio

The best commodity index ETF is GCC. It is the old CRB Index with 17 equally-weighted commodities, essentially all US-traded commodity futures except no oats, no soybean meal or bean oil, and no meats. Being equally-weighted, the ride is smoother. And when coffee and cocoa make their runs, you're there too.

Plus you get the very favororable taxation afforded to futures as opposed to ETN's and to collectibles like the silver and gold funds. (Many of DB's funds are also futures based.)

I own GCC.

I own GCC.

Gold: Too Volatile to Be a Safe Investment

all commodities are too volatile to be investments, **except** in small quantities to damp long term asset sector volatility. gold was worthless from 1980 to 1999, unless you wanted to reduce your overall portfolio return. but if you don't have a clue about gold cycles--the norm--then you have to own it all the time. but you can re-balance it by settting a high and low perentage of your portfolio: being where you sell some to bring it back down to a safe percentage of total assets, or buy it when the percentage slips too low. as a rough guide i would say that 18% is tooooooo high a weighting for gold in a rational portfolio, and 8% is toooooo low.

in general i agree with gigem77. it's very easy to own the whole US comomodity futures spectrum with GCC whcih uses the modified CRB index wherein each one of 17 comodities is owned in an equal dollar amount. i own that one and Pimco's PCRIX (for taxable accolunts) in addition to gold bullion coins. if i include my energy stock fund (VGENX) and my metals stock fund (VGPMX) and a bunch of natural gas royalty trusts it's all about 22% of total invested assets including cash. that's a bit heavy, but i own no real estate REITS or funds quite yet.

this segment has sure saved me over the past year and much longer too.

What's the Mainstream Missing on Gold?

Ancient balderdash like this gives gold a bad name. Gold is simply a fairly rare commodity that goes up during inflation and down during disinflation. That's all we need to know to use it constructively in a portfolio or to trade it.