deuxsous

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

My wife and I went to a fine restaurant in Scottsdale AZ for dinner yesterday. Six months ago it would be full with long waiting times to be seated, even with table reservations. Yesterday there were only four tables in use out of 25!

But lack of consumer demand is not the only driver of gold prices, as you seem to suggest. Gold is insurance against economic ruin and not just an anti-dollar indicator. Dollar and gold can both be strong as in 1982-83. If Europe is weaker than the US in a contraction, we can have gold up and dollar up too. In any event it is always wise to own some gold as insurance. None of us wants our life insurance to pay off since we'll be dead. I don't really want to see gold pay off either, but I still buy both gold and life insurance, "just in case".

I enjoyed seeing your excellent website!

TD




On Jan 14 01:47 PM ROLEX18K wrote:

> The GC will crash, I repeat my previous comments only bring new observation
> for your consideration.
> Today walking in the downtown in Frankfurt, Germany, I passed many
> jewelerly boutiques many of them are brand names like Cartier, Wempe,
> Christ and all the rest is high street high end focused luxury selling
> shops.
> Most of this boutiques were empty and employees inside exceeded public
> inside, I wondered if they sold anything at all today.
> Then we went with my girlfriend to shopping center also high end
> focused, the highest floor with most expensive designer clothes was
> alost empty, the one below little occupied, the floor where are the
> cheapest brands and exit/entrance was also not busy.
> That's why Gold is heading for 700,600,500,400,300,20... but soon
> 500-600 $ per ounze is very likely.

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

This was obviously an interview with Dent that was poorly transcribed to paper and poorly edited. Never mind. It's a real barn burner, and I thank Andrew Mickey for allowing us to see it here in any form!

I read the Dent Roaring 2000's book too. It was published in 1998, and he changed his opinion later and posted a long update on his changed opinions at his website for free in 2006 or 2007. His later opinon was that there was be a housing bubble and then the last bubble would be commodities,,,and both happened. they both happened a little earlier than he suspected, but they happened.

What he says makes a lot of sense in a broad brush, long term scope. Most people today have attention spans of maybe 15 minutes at best, so it will seem only like BS to them as they wander around in the darkness of their minds. We are going through a massive change, not just a garden variety deep recession. We need to get our minds used to this and look for ways to make it work for ourselves and others. Washington under Obama is not the answer unless they can change their minds quickly. Loaded down with failed Klintonistas like "City Bob" Rubin and Barney and Schumer and Reid it's going to be hard to change those leaden biases.

In any event there is always a way to make money in markets if your mind is open for business. Most people will remain in denial for years and years, as usual. It's time to get busy studying what's happeneing and give up bitching about how it isn't like it used to be. It never IS like it used to be, but this time it's a LOT different! Cheer up and get rich.

Oil, Gold and the Holy Dow

i've owned gold a long, long time, but i sure don't understand the goldbug holy roller religion of CB manipulation and other assorted conspiracy theories.

hey, girls, it's just portfolio insurance! add gold to your list of insurance policies a rational person needs and forget about it.

Gold/Dow Ratio: Where Are We Holding?

In the idealized economic long wave cycle there are 27 years of inflation followed by 27 years of disinflation. Due to the time expended for basing of disinflation (1998-2003) and the time expended for the topping of inflation (1974-1980), the actual trend periods of inflation and disinflation are a bit over twenty years each. If we take 2003 as the time when the basing of disinflation completed, then inflation will rise on a trend basis until 2023 or so. And with inflation go interest rates and gold and other commodities.

The Dow/Gold ratio shows that selected stock sectors can still rise during gold's inflation, but overall stocks don't rise as much as gold, especially the Dow which rarely has a metals stock, although the chemicals and oils can do well.

Commodities and gold tend to rise in quantum leaps followed by long consolidations, so it is advisable to get a broad exposure to many commodities such as in the Dow Jones-AIG Index or the Continuous Commodity Index (Son of CRB). Not every commodity moves together and at the same time, so indexing serves to dampen volatility. DJP and GCC are two ETF's which follow DJ-AIG and CCI respectively. Pimco's PCRIX/PCRDX does the same in the mutual fund format.

I personally own GCC and PCRIX but have no other connection with the gold or commodity industry.

The Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell on Stock Values

vaduz....it seems probable that first quarter US GDP will be positive once it is totalled up, and we're only two weeks out of first quarter. EVERYONE wanted to the the first person to anounce a recession, but we aren't in one yet on a nation-wide basis. Bonds and stocks have forecasted a recession for a year, but stocks are starting to have "second thoughts".