deuxsous

Gold Stocks Look Cheap - BMO

If you look at the ratio chart of GDX/$GOLD, the shape of the chart and the timing are the same as every other paper investment late last year and early this year. Paper gold in the form of gold stocks went way down in value compared to gold when all paper assets got sold off.

All paper assets are rallying since early March and GDX is a paper asset too. Paper assets have their time and place, but the metal is the real thing.

screencast.com/t/DpJHk...

Rising Long-Term Interest Rates Go Hand in Hand with the Expanding Economy

rant rant rant.... Dr Leeb is correct...rising rates accompany inflation which is what the whole new government is working on creating by choice. But rising rates also accompany rising GDP for a long long time until they are "too high". Accept it and invest accordingly.

Gold Stock Fundamentals

That's a very useful analysis. Due to preoccupation with other issues I never loaded up on gold and silver miners earlier this decade. I concentrated more on the polymetallics like RTP, BHP, AAUK and FCX and bought and held gold bullion.

Having missed the flat years and the crunch partly by luck alone, it's time to "dig into" the mines on any weakness.

Thanks for putting it into proper persepective.

TD

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

My wife and I went to a fine restaurant in Scottsdale AZ for dinner yesterday. Six months ago it would be full with long waiting times to be seated, even with table reservations. Yesterday there were only four tables in use out of 25!

But lack of consumer demand is not the only driver of gold prices, as you seem to suggest. Gold is insurance against economic ruin and not just an anti-dollar indicator. Dollar and gold can both be strong as in 1982-83. If Europe is weaker than the US in a contraction, we can have gold up and dollar up too. In any event it is always wise to own some gold as insurance. None of us wants our life insurance to pay off since we'll be dead. I don't really want to see gold pay off either, but I still buy both gold and life insurance, "just in case".

I enjoyed seeing your excellent website!

TD




On Jan 14 01:47 PM ROLEX18K wrote:

> The GC will crash, I repeat my previous comments only bring new observation
> for your consideration.
> Today walking in the downtown in Frankfurt, Germany, I passed many
> jewelerly boutiques many of them are brand names like Cartier, Wempe,
> Christ and all the rest is high street high end focused luxury selling
> shops.
> Most of this boutiques were empty and employees inside exceeded public
> inside, I wondered if they sold anything at all today.
> Then we went with my girlfriend to shopping center also high end
> focused, the highest floor with most expensive designer clothes was
> alost empty, the one below little occupied, the floor where are the
> cheapest brands and exit/entrance was also not busy.
> That's why Gold is heading for 700,600,500,400,300,20... but soon
> 500-600 $ per ounze is very likely.

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

This was obviously an interview with Dent that was poorly transcribed to paper and poorly edited. Never mind. It's a real barn burner, and I thank Andrew Mickey for allowing us to see it here in any form!

I read the Dent Roaring 2000's book too. It was published in 1998, and he changed his opinion later and posted a long update on his changed opinions at his website for free in 2006 or 2007. His later opinon was that there was be a housing bubble and then the last bubble would be commodities,,,and both happened. they both happened a little earlier than he suspected, but they happened.

What he says makes a lot of sense in a broad brush, long term scope. Most people today have attention spans of maybe 15 minutes at best, so it will seem only like BS to them as they wander around in the darkness of their minds. We are going through a massive change, not just a garden variety deep recession. We need to get our minds used to this and look for ways to make it work for ourselves and others. Washington under Obama is not the answer unless they can change their minds quickly. Loaded down with failed Klintonistas like "City Bob" Rubin and Barney and Schumer and Reid it's going to be hard to change those leaden biases.

In any event there is always a way to make money in markets if your mind is open for business. Most people will remain in denial for years and years, as usual. It's time to get busy studying what's happeneing and give up bitching about how it isn't like it used to be. It never IS like it used to be, but this time it's a LOT different! Cheer up and get rich.

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Gaza is irrelevant.... It's just another third world street gang trying to up the ante and losing. It's possible the producers are using it as an excuse to try a short squeeze in crude oil futures, but as an event it's meaningless.

The Manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices

Yes, I think JPM's reputed size on Comex is immaterial to the world gold price since that world price is fungible and "arbitrage-able" instantly. All discrepancies between NY and other world gold center (Tokyo, London, Dubai, etc.) prices are instantly arbitraged. If JPM can have that many shorts in the NY market and it doesn't really affect the world price, that's the sign of a large and very healthy market.

I spend my time on price analysis and fundamental analysis and leave the BS to others. I only bother to comment occasionally because the incessant BS pisses me off as wasteful, and I hate to see another generation of gold investors sucked into that vortex of ignorance. Gold is a very worthwhile investment asset, but the distractions of the "manipulationistas" are a real pain in the rear when people are trying to gauge the real market.

The Manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices

It's clear to me that the government WANTS gold to go UP not DOWN! Why else would they be inflating every minute of every day? How many times per week do you hear a CONgrASS person or bureuacrat say the word "reflation"? Now is that "manipulation" or just "public policy"?

Why don't the armies of NCGB's here at this site and elsewhere EVER get it???????????? It's enough to drive a good man to drink on New Year's Eve.

Happy 2009 to all NCGB's and the very few normal gold investors!

The Manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices

""My purpose here is to illustrate the reckless manner in which the big players have distorted what were once “normal” markets. JPM is not a gold miner, it is not a gold user, and it is not a central bank. Why, then, is JPM participating in the gold futures markets? For one reason alone: what was once a means for producers and users to hedge an actual production process has become a casino. The big investment banks have “trading desks” who engage in speculation.""

The stated purpose of futures exchanges was and is to provide a forum in which producers and users may exchange their risk to speculators. Without speculators there is no exchange of risk. What is there about that function which should make you angry and disturbed, seeing evil manipulators under every bed?

The Manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices

Hmmmmm...on the email sending me this article from Seeking Alpha, Hamlin was listed as the source, but here at the site it says Peter Degraaf.

The Manipulation of Gold and Silver Prices

I parted company from the goldbugs in the late 1990's when they were reduced to claiming that gold should go up during deflation (!) and also claimed the reason it didn't go up was because of a massive manipulative conspiracy. But it was back then really just a bear market in gold as it was in oil and grains and the CRB Inxdex in general. What could have been more obvious?

In many cases the manipulation addicts are paid by the miners and others to promote the gold price in any way they can. I know little or nothing about Mr. Hamlin, and I certainly do not mean to accuse him AT ALL of being in that league. He may simply be fooled by the marketing manipulators' constant barrage as many others are.

I still love and own gold as a hedge just as I love and own home, car and health insurance. I don't really want to see any of them pay off, but I buy them "just in case". The rest is marketing hype and other uglier varieties of BS.

Dollar Rally Won't Last Forever; Don't Give Up on Gold

twocents.blogs.com/web...

Bob Moriarty: Gold is Safe Haven for Looming Crash

Both CEF and ASA are, for US investors, "passive foreign investment companies" (PFIC) and require one to make formal "elections" on a special form to the IRS of one of several choices of how to be taxed. All of the choices are, in my opinion, unfavorable compared to normal US investment taxation. Making no formal election also has adverse results.

In my opinion, and I am only a private investors and NOT an attorney nor an accountant, it would be preferable for most US investors to own CEF and ASA only in tax-deferred retirement fundds such as IRAs, 401Ks, etc.

Here is an explanation of the tax treatment of PFICs which ASA has published at its website:

www.asaltd.com/Tools/L...

Gold Bugs Emerging in Some Unlikely Places

I agree completely with theoakman. A meaningful but not huge percent should be in gold. I've owned gold 5-12% of assets since the 1960's, just as Jean-Marie Eveillard has and does. Day trading or flipping it foolish. Buy it for cash and put it away. Forget all the crappy gold note ETNs and other paper gold. Frankly I don't care if gold goes up constantly which it won't do in any case. It's the long run that matters for core assets.

By the Numbers, Mining Stocks are Undervalued

wool-pulling analysis will impress some people...