deuxsous

As an Investment, Gold's Just a Brick

"Despite its unique properties, gold has not been a good investment. Over the past 200 years, its returns have barely kept up with inflation."

Gold is insurance for one's cash currency, not an investment per se.The chart shows that cash from 1800 has become totally worthless while gold has retained its value.

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Gold Stocks Look Cheap - BMO

If you look at the ratio chart of GDX/$GOLD, the shape of the chart and the timing are the same as every other paper investment late last year and early this year. Paper gold in the form of gold stocks went way down in value compared to gold when all paper assets got sold off.

All paper assets are rallying since early March and GDX is a paper asset too. Paper assets have their time and place, but the metal is the real thing.

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Gold Analysts Not Expecting Inflation This Year

You don't buy gold to get rich. You buy gold to stay rich.

Rising Long-Term Interest Rates Go Hand in Hand with the Expanding Economy

rant rant rant.... Dr Leeb is correct...rising rates accompany inflation which is what the whole new government is working on creating by choice. But rising rates also accompany rising GDP for a long long time until they are "too high". Accept it and invest accordingly.

Gold Stock Fundamentals

That's a very useful analysis. Due to preoccupation with other issues I never loaded up on gold and silver miners earlier this decade. I concentrated more on the polymetallics like RTP, BHP, AAUK and FCX and bought and held gold bullion.

Having missed the flat years and the crunch partly by luck alone, it's time to "dig into" the mines on any weakness.

Thanks for putting it into proper persepective.

TD

Everything You Need to Know About Junior Miners

Mark Twain said it best: "A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar (PR guy) on top."

That said, the royalty approach is a decent way to isolate risk/reward . Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold are good additions to a bullion portfolio. Keep in mind that a royalty owner is essentially a bank investing in possible payoffs and and hence is long a call on its portfolio. If one owns royalties in Barrick and Newmont projects, that's one thing. Juniors' royalty interests are a different animal. So don't go too deep with them without deeper thought and study.

Opportunities and Caveats in the Precious Metals Sector

The Elements PMY includes exposure to gold (~50%), platinum, silver and palladium.

www.elementsetn.com/pd...

It trades lightly so far, but if carefully bought could work as a long term holding.

Gold as Part of a Portfolio

>
> As to your current version of your objection, it “proves too much.”
> It would invalidate all portfolio-composition comparisons of the
> most recent period, simply because the performance of its components
> was already known. E.g., it would invalidate all comparisons using
> a stock index, if the index were known to be higher at the end of
> the period chosen.
>

One way to deal with this issue is somewhat like what neural network trainers do. They randomly choose dates or time periods within their total data sample but not including current data,. They then train the network on the random data and subequently test the trained network using all data including the present. That eliminates the "current period bias" but preserves the predictive long term information in the data, assuming there is some.

It is true, however that 15 years of data isn't really optimal for predicting or dealing with what we've been through this past year. A lot of mutual funds, for example, with excellent records since 1987, got slaughtered last year. Not to pick on anyone, but Dodge & Cox Balanced Fund DODBX had a lousy year after being a rock of stability for decades. Everyone here could add many such examples.

Gold as Part of a Portfolio

I don't have the data the author provides, but I have kept 10-15% in gold since the 1980's, and I "know" or "feel" it has helped. For one thing I religiously buy more when gold drops to 8% of portfolio and sell some when it gets to 16%. That alone helps lock in some profits and it buys cheaper on significant pullbacks.

Jastrow's famous book of the 1980's on gold over the ages recommended a small percent in gold as a "stabilizer, and it works for me. Cash in a money market fund could do the same thing. In fact it's not a bad idea to think of gold as a "money market fund" with a "value currency" in it.

Finally, thanks to the author for this article.

How the Treasury Bubble Will Burst and Why

Articles like this have long since made a mockery of Kondratieff's work and usefulness to investors. In a true K Wave "winter" gold would be the worst asset to own, as in the 1980's and 90's, and Treasury bonds the best asset to own.

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

My wife and I went to a fine restaurant in Scottsdale AZ for dinner yesterday. Six months ago it would be full with long waiting times to be seated, even with table reservations. Yesterday there were only four tables in use out of 25!

But lack of consumer demand is not the only driver of gold prices, as you seem to suggest. Gold is insurance against economic ruin and not just an anti-dollar indicator. Dollar and gold can both be strong as in 1982-83. If Europe is weaker than the US in a contraction, we can have gold up and dollar up too. In any event it is always wise to own some gold as insurance. None of us wants our life insurance to pay off since we'll be dead. I don't really want to see gold pay off either, but I still buy both gold and life insurance, "just in case".

I enjoyed seeing your excellent website!

TD




On Jan 14 01:47 PM ROLEX18K wrote:

> The GC will crash, I repeat my previous comments only bring new observation
> for your consideration.
> Today walking in the downtown in Frankfurt, Germany, I passed many
> jewelerly boutiques many of them are brand names like Cartier, Wempe,
> Christ and all the rest is high street high end focused luxury selling
> shops.
> Most of this boutiques were empty and employees inside exceeded public
> inside, I wondered if they sold anything at all today.
> Then we went with my girlfriend to shopping center also high end
> focused, the highest floor with most expensive designer clothes was
> alost empty, the one below little occupied, the floor where are the
> cheapest brands and exit/entrance was also not busy.
> That's why Gold is heading for 700,600,500,400,300,20... but soon
> 500-600 $ per ounze is very likely.

Gold, Viagra and Emerging Markets: Harry Dent on 2009 and Beyond

This was obviously an interview with Dent that was poorly transcribed to paper and poorly edited. Never mind. It's a real barn burner, and I thank Andrew Mickey for allowing us to see it here in any form!

I read the Dent Roaring 2000's book too. It was published in 1998, and he changed his opinion later and posted a long update on his changed opinions at his website for free in 2006 or 2007. His later opinon was that there was be a housing bubble and then the last bubble would be commodities,,,and both happened. they both happened a little earlier than he suspected, but they happened.

What he says makes a lot of sense in a broad brush, long term scope. Most people today have attention spans of maybe 15 minutes at best, so it will seem only like BS to them as they wander around in the darkness of their minds. We are going through a massive change, not just a garden variety deep recession. We need to get our minds used to this and look for ways to make it work for ourselves and others. Washington under Obama is not the answer unless they can change their minds quickly. Loaded down with failed Klintonistas like "City Bob" Rubin and Barney and Schumer and Reid it's going to be hard to change those leaden biases.

In any event there is always a way to make money in markets if your mind is open for business. Most people will remain in denial for years and years, as usual. It's time to get busy studying what's happeneing and give up bitching about how it isn't like it used to be. It never IS like it used to be, but this time it's a LOT different! Cheer up and get rich.

Looking for Opportunities in an Irrational Market Place

Rumors abound that both the US and China are replenishing their "strategic reserves" of crude oil before the Coronation. And why shouldn't they do so while prices are low?

The Russians and the Persians are trying to spook the markets up by actions in Ukraine and Gaza, but it isn't working yet. Neverthless why not top up the tank while prices are low?

Will the New GCC Single Currency Include Gold?

If the dollar is so bad why are the Gulf sheiks worried so much about the price of oil in dollars falling?

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

Gaza is irrelevant.... It's just another third world street gang trying to up the ante and losing. It's possible the producers are using it as an excuse to try a short squeeze in crude oil futures, but as an event it's meaningless.