User 124595

6 Comments

    • A Bet Against the Banks [view article]
      globalmacro,

      Definitely agree that a lot of carnage has floated to the surface. However, the banking sector still has a long way down. JPMorgan, for example, has $7.8 TRILLION in CDS exposure which needs to be marked to market. The monoliner issue is not one that won't be resolved with massive writeoffs affecting most major institutions. The property markets are not close to bottoming. The consumer spending slowdown is just starting and job layoffs will take time. This is not going to be resolved any time soon, and over the medium term shorting financials will be a very good trade. There are still quite lot of bulls - only when everyone is bearish will a potential bottom be reached.       Feb 17 07:00 PM
    • End of Crisis or Dead Cat Bounce? Looking at Ultrashort ETFs [view article]
      Couldn't agree more with you. Another sucker's rally in a downward cycle. Can't buck the property down cycle and insane amount of consumer debt that has now tightened beyond normality. Jan 25 02:18 AM
    • Monoline Insurance Bailout: Where's the Justice in That? [view article]
      Very well said. Unfortunately, optics have become way more important than logic in recent years, so you know a government bailout is going to happen. Jan 24 08:42 PM
    • The Case Against Peak Oil [view article]
      Who knows when Peak Oil will hit, but I would review all of the IOC's production rates over the past 5 years. Not a good picture, though I do agree that the significant recent investment by the IOC's will show through in a short-term spike in supply. Dec 18 08:06 PM
    • Ratings Agencies: Villians or Scapegoats? [view article]
      Let me start off by saying that I am short one of the rating agencies (Moody's). Did you see the recent 8-K filing on Tuesday? Generally, when sudden resignations occur at this level and for such a relevant position to this crisis, it doesn't bode well for the company (directors at Countrywide, New Century, etc. prior to their implosion).

      From a macro view, how can the rating agencies recover from the fastest increase in rating revenues in history in a rapidly deflating credit environment and global slowdown?


      Item 5.02, "Departure of Directors or Certain Officers"

      Jeanne M. Dering resigned, effective November 14, 2007, from her position as Executive Vice President, Global Regulatory Affairs and Compliance of Moody's Corporation (the "Company"). She will remain an employee of the Company until December 31, 2007.       Nov 22 09:16 PM
    • Ratings Agencies: Villians or Scapegoats? [view article]
      Let me start off by saying that I am short one of the rating agencies (Moody's). Did you see the recent 8-K filing on Tuesday? Generally, when sudden resignations occur at this level and for such a relevant position to this crisis, it doesn't bode well for the company (directors at Countrywide, New Century, etc. prior to their implosion).

      From a macro view, how can the rating agencies recover from the fastest increase in rating revenues in history in a rapidly deflating credit environment and global slowdown?


      Item 5.02, "Departure of Directors or Certain Officers"

      Jeanne M. Dering resigned, effective November 14, 2007, from her position as Executive Vice President, Global Regulatory Affairs and Compliance of Moody's Corporation (the "Company"). She will remain an employee of the Company until December 31, 2007.       Nov 22 09:13 PM
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