Ron Mahabir08

Exxon's High Valuation Is Hard to Comprehend

Interesting analysis. In the long-run, Exxon is way overvalued as their reserves are questionable, particularly with recent changes in oil reserve accounting. In the short- to medium-term, however, reserves can be overlooked as oil prices increase. The stock is a staple in many managers' portfolios, so the volatility is relatively low. With limited new investment, the discounted cashflow value of this decreases, yet with low oil prices in the short-run, there is upside when prices recover. Agree with you that valuing this stock is very tough.

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

Some very relevant points, and overall agree with your analysis. Timing, however, is the key here. Your scenario could take a while as the whole "old system" is bent on survival. That said, can't be too wrong going long physical gold for the long-term (5 years+).

Five Sophisticated Gold and Silver Investment Strategies for 2009

Ultimately, investors are seeking a "safe haven" and gold is certainly more appealing than fiat currencies headed towards 0% interest rates. More importantly, the paper market is approximately 2.5x the physical one, which will make gold rocket once the masses realize that holding ETFs or other gold-related paper securities is like a 2006 vintage of securitized mortgages.

A Bet Against the Banks

globalmacro,

Definitely agree that a lot of carnage has floated to the surface. However, the banking sector still has a long way down. JPMorgan, for example, has $7.8 TRILLION in CDS exposure which needs to be marked to market. The monoliner issue is not one that won't be resolved with massive writeoffs affecting most major institutions. The property markets are not close to bottoming. The consumer spending slowdown is just starting and job layoffs will take time. This is not going to be resolved any time soon, and over the medium term shorting financials will be a very good trade. There are still quite lot of bulls - only when everyone is bearish will a potential bottom be reached.

End of Crisis or Dead Cat Bounce? Looking at Ultrashort ETFs

Couldn't agree more with you. Another sucker's rally in a downward cycle. Can't buck the property down cycle and insane amount of consumer debt that has now tightened beyond normality.

Monoline Insurance Bailout: Where's the Justice in That?

Very well said. Unfortunately, optics have become way more important than logic in recent years, so you know a government bailout is going to happen.

The Case Against Peak Oil

Who knows when Peak Oil will hit, but I would review all of the IOC's production rates over the past 5 years. Not a good picture, though I do agree that the significant recent investment by the IOC's will show through in a short-term spike in supply.

Ratings Agencies: Villians or Scapegoats?

Let me start off by saying that I am short one of the rating agencies (Moody's). Did you see the recent 8-K filing on Tuesday? Generally, when sudden resignations occur at this level and for such a relevant position to this crisis, it doesn't bode well for the company (directors at Countrywide, New Century, etc. prior to their implosion).

From a macro view, how can the rating agencies recover from the fastest increase in rating revenues in history in a rapidly deflating credit environment and global slowdown?


Item 5.02, "Departure of Directors or Certain Officers"

Jeanne M. Dering resigned, effective November 14, 2007, from her position as Executive Vice President, Global Regulatory Affairs and Compliance of Moody's Corporation (the "Company"). She will remain an employee of the Company until December 31, 2007.

Ratings Agencies: Villians or Scapegoats?

Let me start off by saying that I am short one of the rating agencies (Moody's). Did you see the recent 8-K filing on Tuesday? Generally, when sudden resignations occur at this level and for such a relevant position to this crisis, it doesn't bode well for the company (directors at Countrywide, New Century, etc. prior to their implosion).

From a macro view, how can the rating agencies recover from the fastest increase in rating revenues in history in a rapidly deflating credit environment and global slowdown?


Item 5.02, "Departure of Directors or Certain Officers"

Jeanne M. Dering resigned, effective November 14, 2007, from her position as Executive Vice President, Global Regulatory Affairs and Compliance of Moody's Corporation (the "Company"). She will remain an employee of the Company until December 31, 2007.