Ron Mahabir08

Exxon's High Valuation Is Hard to Comprehend

Interesting analysis. In the long-run, Exxon is way overvalued as their reserves are questionable, particularly with recent changes in oil reserve accounting. In the short- to medium-term, however, reserves can be overlooked as oil prices increase. The stock is a staple in many managers' portfolios, so the volatility is relatively low. With limited new investment, the discounted cashflow value of this decreases, yet with low oil prices in the short-run, there is upside when prices recover. Agree with you that valuing this stock is very tough.

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

Some very relevant points, and overall agree with your analysis. Timing, however, is the key here. Your scenario could take a while as the whole "old system" is bent on survival. That said, can't be too wrong going long physical gold for the long-term (5 years+).

The Case Against Peak Oil

Who knows when Peak Oil will hit, but I would review all of the IOC's production rates over the past 5 years. Not a good picture, though I do agree that the significant recent investment by the IOC's will show through in a short-term spike in supply.