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danielosborne
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I am an investment professional currently working for the amazing Wall Street Bad Boys.
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  • Commodity Review: Is It Not Too Late To Get In On The Gold Rally?

    Gold mining stocks were surging on Friday as gold sparkled in the wake of yet another dismal jobs report causing rampant speculation of another round of quantitative easing. The following gold mining stocks were among the best performing stocks for the sector and produced some extraordinary gains:

    • Great Basin Gold (NYSEMKT:GBG) 16.50%
    • Kimber Resources (KBX) 14.93%
    • International Tower Hill Mines (NYSEMKT:THM) 12.35%
    • Exeter Resource (NYSEMKT:XRA) 12.09%
    • Alexco Resource (NYSEMKT:AXU) 11.09%
    • Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) 10.51%
    • Mag Silver (NYSEMKT:MVG) 10.39%
    • Randgold Resources (NASDAQ:GOLD) 9.97%
    • Keegan Resources (KGN) 9.76%
    • Brigus Gold (BRD) 9.63%
    • Golden Star Resources (NYSEMKT:GSS) 9.43%
    • IAMGOLD Corporation (NYSE:IAG) 9.18%
    • Minco Gold Corporation (NYSEMKT:MGH) 9.13%
    • Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) 8.75%
    • Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE) 8.58%
    • New Gold (NYSEMKT:NGD) 8.22%
    • Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK) 8.18%

    Its worth noting that Eric Sprott, the CEO of Sprott Asset Management, was recently quoted as saying a surge in gold is overdue given the unsustainable leverage among financial institutions along with the severe bank run that Spain is now facing. Moreover, Sprott added that Friday's dismal job numbers has finally convinced those "fooled by good weather" earlier in the year that the US economy is simply not recovering but he is very optimistic about gold stocks.

    It's also worth noting that RBC Capital Markets believes that all of the "catalysts" are still in place to sustain a gold rally, including:

    • Central bank buying.
    • Investor fears surrounding the European debt crisis.
    • Expectations of a QE3 stimulus package in the USA.

    So how should you trade or invest in a gold rally? Besides individual gold mining stocks like those mentioned earlier, traders and investors alike should consider the Market Vectors ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:GDX), which follows the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) containing small, medium and large cap gold mining stocks or the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDXJ) which follows the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index consisting of small and mid-cap gold mining stocks.

    On Friday, the Market Vectors ETF Trust (GDX) rose 6.58% to $46.66 (GDX has a 52 week trading range of $39.08 to $66.97 a share) is down 9.3% since the start of the year, down 17.4% over the past year and up 16.5% over the past five years while the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) rose 6.83% to $20.64 (GDXJ has a 52 week trading range of $17.38 to $39.49 a share) plus the ETF is down 16.4% since the start of the year, down 42.8% over the past year and down 18.8% since late 2009.

    Likewise, there are other ways to gain exposure to gold without investing in physical gold or gold mining stocks. Specifically, the ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (NYSEARCA:UGL) seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of gold. On Friday, the ProShares Ultra Gold ETF (UGL) rose 7.86% to $82.63 (UGL has a 52 week trading range of $73.50 to $122.13 a share) plus the ETF is up 4.58% since the start of the year, up 1.4% over the past year and up 247.5% since late 2008.

    On the other hand and should the economy turn a corner or the crisis in Europe finally resolve itself (neither appear to be happening any time soon) and gold starts to head the other direction, the ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (NYSEARCA:GLL) seeks a daily return that corresponds to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of gold bullion. Hence and on Friday, the ProShares UltraShort Gold ETF (GLL) fell 7.5% to $17.39 (GLL has a 52 week trading range of $14.30 to $24.52) plus the ETF down 12.2% since the start of the year, down 24.1% over the past year and down 71.9% since late 2008.

    Nevertheless, it looks like a gold rally is here to stay but there will no doubt be a few peaks and valleys for traders to make money on. Hence, be sure to keep an eye on both gold ETFs and gold mining stocks with NextCandle.com. In fact, you might want to keep an eye on your favorite gold ETFs and gold mining stocks by using NextCandle.com's My Portfolio page.

    NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.

    Jun 04 10:57 AM | Link | Comment!
  • A Review Of NextCandle.com’s Top Stock Forecasts From Last Friday

    Friday was a lousy day for the stock market as a whole after another tepid jobs report - meaning the market moved down much more than what most people would have predicted. Otherwise and before the market opened, NextCandle.com gave the following stock predictions:

    • Research In Motion (RIMM) had a 61% probability of making a lower low.
    • Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) had a 65% probability of making a lower low.
    • SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) had a 70% probability of making a higher high.

    And the results when the market closed:

    • Research In Motion (RIMM) opened at $10.17 after previously closing at $10.33, had a trading range of $10.05 to $10.42 for the day and closed down 0.68% to $10.26. As we noted yesterday, Research In Motion (RIMM) took a big beating earlier in the week when it issued another dour business outlook. In fact, it was previously trading above $11 on Tuesday before dropping to below the $10.5 level.
    • Yum! Brands (YUM) had closed above the $70 level on Thursday and it had largely stayed about that level for the past several days. However and on Friday, Yum! Brands (YUM) opened at $67.74, had a daily trading range of $64.36 to $68.43 and closed down 8.04% at $64.70 for its biggest fall in three years. The reason for YUM's sudden plunge? Specifically, Yum! Brands (YUM) got around 44% of its revenue from stores in China last year and a report came out showing that manufacturing in that country had declined for the first time in six months - meaning there could be an economic slowdown coming.
    • SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) had closed at $151.62 on Thursday but on Friday, it immediately opened at $155.38, had a daily trading range of $154.88 to $158.28 and closed 3.88% higher at $157.50. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) naturally soared due to the disappointing jobs report.

    With mounting signs that the economy is slowing, traders should expect plenty of volatility in the coming weeks and months ahead. In other words, keep an eye on the news headlines as well as our NextCandle.com stock predictions for all of the stocks you trade.

    NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.

    Jun 02 10:38 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Stock Of The Week: More Nails Being Hammered In Research In Motion’S (RIMM) Coffin?

    Research in Motion (RIMM) was back in motion this week when it tumbled around 8% after announcing another grim business outlook. So just how grim is the situation at Research in Motion (RIMM)? Consider the following facts and figures:

    • Research in Motion (RIMM) has just announced that it's hiring a pair of investment bankers who will conduct a "strategic review" that could include the eventual sale of the company. However, the time to sell was when the iPhone and other smartphones began grabbing its market share as there is not much left to sell.
    • On Thursday, Research in Motion (RIMM) fell 0.20% to $10.33 plus the stock is down 28.8% since the start of the year, down 76.3% over the past year and down 81.3% over the past five years but its still up over 310.3% over the past 10 years - if that really matters to any investor whose been in for the long long-haul.
    • The company has warned that it will be posting an operating loss for the May quarter. Its worth noting that every single one of the 43 analysts who follow Research in Motion (RIMM) was predicting a profit for the period.
    • There are layoff rumors or more specifically there will be "significant spending reductions and headcount reductions in some areas." That could give Research in Motion (RIMM) a boost at some point if it helps them produce a profit. However, high level executives at Research in Motion (RIMM) have been walking out on their own without the need to be pushed out.
    • Most North American consumers are choosing Apple or Google over the BlackBerry while Research in Motion's (RIMM) traditional customers such as big businesses are increasingly allowing their employees to choose their own smartphones or use their personal devices.

    On the bright side of things, Research in Motion (RIMM) still has plenty of assets along with no debt and over $2 billion in cash. Moreover, Research in Motion (RIMM) still has 77 million subscribers globally and remains extremely popular in some regions such as Indonesia and parts of Latin America. However, its falling market share means that the company, short of a miracle, is probably destined to continue shrinking in relevance well into the foreseeable future.

    Nevertheless, there are probably still plenty of ways for traders to make money trading Research in Motion (RIMM) on its ups and downs (just don't plan on being a buy and hold investor with its share!). Hence, keep an eye on our NextCandle.com stock forecasts for any sign of a strong probability of a direction movement for Research in Motion (RIMM) and plan to trade accordingly.

    NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.

    Jun 01 12:43 PM | Link | Comment!
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