danielosborne's  Instablog

This week has already seen plenty of important economic data releases that investors should pay close attention to as most of the data was not being overly positive. Here is a quick recap of the economic data releases so far:

• Home Prices Keep Falling and Consumer Confidence Plunges. As we mentioned earlier in the week, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets released earlier in the week showed that average home prices fell another 2.6% from a year earlier while the Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 64.9 - down from a revised 68.7 in April and the biggest drop since October 2011. In fact, home prices have not been this low since mid-2002 while a consumer confidence reading of 64.9 is significantly below the 90 reading that would indicate a healthy economy.

• Sales of Foreclosed Homes Rise. A spike in short sales caused homes in some stage of the foreclosure process to have their share of overall US home sales rise in the first quarter while sales of bank-owned homes fell according to foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. Specifically, short sales rose 25% from a year earlier to hit a three-year high while sales of bank-owned properties fell 15% versus the first quarter of last year - meaning there is a good chance that home prices will continue to soften as short sales usually sell at steep discounts.

• Fewer Jobs Added in May. According this morning's release from ADP Employer Services, US companies added 133,000 jobs last month, smaller than a consensus estimate of 150,000 while the Labor Department announced that weekly applications for unemployment rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000 while the four-week average increased for the first time in a month to 374,500. Another Labor Department report is due out Friday morning and it's projected to show that private sector payrolls rose by 160,000 while unemployment held steady at 8.1% as hiring will likely remain sluggish until there is a clear sign of a pickup in consumer spending.

• First GDP Growth Revised Down. The Commerce Department issued its second estimate for first quarter GDP growth and revised it down from the previous 2.2% estimate to 1.9%. After-tax corporate profits also dropped for the first time in three years while growth in the second quarter is currently estimated to be about 2.5% but there are already signs that business spending has slowed.

• Better Eurozone Data. On a brighter note, Germany's jobless rate fell to 6.7% in May, the lowest level since comparable records began in 1998 while German retail sales rose 0.6% in April - beating expectations of only a 0.1% gain. Inflation for the euro zone also slowed to 2.4% in May from 2.6% in April - giving hope that the European Central Bank will be more willing to provide additional stimulus measures.

The economic data releases that are left for this week includes data about the unemployment rate, auto and truck sales for May plus personal and construction spending for April.

Nevertheless and given the economic data that been coming out for the past several weeks, its hard to be overly up optimistic about the economy as we move into summer and towards the end of the year. Hence, keep a close eye on the latest economic news along with our NextCandle.com stock forecasts for all of the stocks you own and trade.

NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.

With Memorial Day weekend over with, this week will be an action pack week filled with news and data for investors. Hence, here is a quick summary of the economic and other news along with what stocks or sectors traders need to be watching:

• Home Prices Keep Falling. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets, average home prices fell another 2.6% from 12 months earlier. In fact, home prices have not been this low since mid-2002. On the other hand, Bloomberg is reporting that a possible comeback in the housing market could be under way as homebuilders are reporting their most-improved spring selling season in seven years thanks to record-low mortgage rates, some job gains and lower inventories. In other words, keep a watch on homebuilder stocks today.

• Consumer Confidence Plunges. The Conference Board has announced that its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 64.9 - down from a revised 68.7 in April. This was its biggest drop since October 2011. Given that consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity and a reading of 64.9 is significantly below the 90 reading that indicates a healthy economy (but still well above the 40 level of last October), keep an eye on retail and consumer stocks today.

• Important Economic Data. On Thursday and Friday, there will be a bunch of economic data to digest. Specifically and on Thursday, weekly jobless claims will be released along with ADP employment data for May along with another Q1 GDP estimate and Chicago PMI. On Friday, the unemployment rate for May along with auto and truck sales will be revealed plus personal spending and construction spending for April. There is no telling what will happen when all of this data is dumped onto the market.

• JP Morgan's London Whale. Keep an eye on JP Morgan (JPM) as there are reports that it sold an estimated $25 billion worth of profitable securities in order to prop up its earnings in the wake of the "London Whale" fiasco. That means JP Morgan (JPM) will increase it taxes and loose out on future profits from those securities.

• News About Europe. Where do we even begin with Europe? The good news seems to be that Greece is not in the news as much but the bad news is that Spain nationalized one of its biggest banks as investors grow more nervous about the health of the country's banking system. This means is probably not a good time to own European banking stocks.

• More Facebook IPO Fallout. There is already a feeding frenzy underway after the botched Facebook IPO with fingers pointing in all directions and lawsuits already being prepared or filed. The only good news is perhaps the fact that investor and venture capital attention will be turned away from social media towards tech companies that actually have something of value to offer other than hype or fads.

As you can see, this week could really set the tone for the stock market as we head into summer. Hence, keep a close watch on the news as well as out NextCandle.com stock forecasts for all of the stocks you own and trade as it could be a very interesting week indeed.

NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.

Today is Memorial Day, meaning US markets will be closed but in non-US markets, crude oil futures were rising thanks to a weaker dollar, an unclear outlook over talks involving Iran and the UN Security Council, continued economic uncertainty and perhaps most importantly of all, the approach of hurricane season.

Specifically, hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean runs roughly from June 1 to November 30 but it's important to remember that hurricanes can happen outside of this time period as well. In fact, tropical storm Beryl, the second storm or hurricane of the season, is now approaching the Southeast coast of the United States and its not even June yet.

So just how do or can hurricanes impact oil prices? For starters, it's worth remembering that over the past several years, major hurricanes like Katrina, Gustav and Ike have temporarily wiped out substantial offshore natural gas and crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, Hurricane Gustav, a Category 4 storm that struck in 2008, temporarily shut down 100% of Gulf crude oil and 95% of natural gas production.

With that in mind, here is a quick run down of oil stocks that are vulnerable to the impact of hurricanes:

• BP plc (BP), Chevron Corporation (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A) all have production (as in offshore oil rigs) and refining assets that are vulnerable to hurricanes. Each of these oil stocks could loose billions of dollars due to lost production resulting from a major hurricane.

• Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) and Hercules Offshore (HERO) provide drilling or marine services to oil companies involved in offshore drilling in hurricane prone regions like the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, offshore drilling and marine services stocks would be impacted by lower utilization rates during and immediately after a major hurricane.

• Enbridge (ENB) has a natural gas and oil pipeline network that could be vulnerable to hurricanes.

• Sunoco (SUN) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) are in the refining business - meaning a severe hurricane can result in damage to their refineries or a short-term reduction in refining capacity.

On the other hand, stocks like Seacor Holdings (CKH) and GulfMark Offshore (GLF) that provide marine support vessels and related transportation equipment should benefit after a major hurricane as they will help those impacted to rebuild.

So what's a good trading strategy for oil stocks during this hurricane season? For starters, don't loose site of the BIG picture as in the US economy, the European debt crisis, uncertainty about the Chinese economy, Middle East unrest and problems with Iran as any event in these areas can have a significant impact on oil prices. Otherwise and if you trade any of the previously mentioned oil stocks, keep an eye on weather forecasts or any news about hurricanes or tropical storms forming over the next several months.

Finally, add a few of the oil stocks that could be impacted to your NextCandle.com My Portfolio screen to keep an eye on our latest stock forecasts or probabilities for them. And while we cannot promise that NextCandle.com will be able to predict the next big hurricane, we do have a pretty good track record of predicting a stock's next trading moves!

NOTE: THIS PIECE WAS JUST POSTED ON THE NEXTCANDLE.COM BLOG.