ironer05

Why I'm All About Apple

We're awfully close to the 50-days moving average, so bargains in the near future look unlikely. If you have a very long-term outlook (and don't mind running a substantial risk of never buying the stock) you might decide to look at the 200-days moving average, which, while steadily increasing, is still below 130 -- suggesting a small but nonzero chance of a bargain in the 130s/140s within a few months. Me, I followed these silly technicals too long on this stock, foregoing opportunities to buy in at less than 1/10th the current price 3.5 years ago "because it was well above the 200-days moving average":-(. And I was asleep at the wheel (or rather long to my limit in other, not-as-good stocks, but that's another story) the one and only time it went below 200-MVA in recent memory, 1.5 years ago (at that time I could have bought in for around 1/3 the current price). So at last I gave up on the silly technicals and just bought the stock (in the mid-160's) -- for about 1/10th of my non-bonds portfolio value (I do believe in differentiation... I say "non-bonds" rather than "stocks" because in that portfolio I also hold commodities ETFs and ETFs shorting various indices, as well as stocks). My guess is that a year from now I'll be looking at juicy returns; probably not as good as the 86+% you'd have gotten over the last 12 months, but better than, say, the 23% HPQ would have given you over the same period of time.