Nate C's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/124627/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/85856-gold-s-finest-hour-how-to-buy-now?source=feed#comment-210305 210305
If you want a real inflation hedge buy timber. Historically it has provided returns 4-6% higher than inflation. Sure beats gold's record.]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:21:04 -0400
If you want a real inflation hedge buy timber. Historically it has provided returns 4-6% higher than inflation. Sure beats gold's record.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84459-will-dark-pools-be-the-capital-markets-next-black-holes?source=feed#comment-202348 202348 Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:54:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84153-breaking-up-with-jamba-juice?source=feed#comment-201063 201063
While I avoided Jamba, I did get sucked into Sun Microsystems in 2002. We all make mistakes, and that is when you are able to become a better investor. First rule is to always sell if the stock drops 10%. It is always hard to take a loss, but that is better than a 85%+ loss I suffered with Sun Micro.

I never made that mistake again!!]]> Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:50:33 -0400
While I avoided Jamba, I did get sucked into Sun Microsystems in 2002. We all make mistakes, and that is when you are able to become a better investor. First rule is to always sell if the stock drops 10%. It is always hard to take a loss, but that is better than a 85%+ loss I suffered with Sun Micro.

I never made that mistake again!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83836-adding-wood-to-your-portolio-a-worthwhile-investment?source=feed#comment-199552 199552 TWTUF.PK).]]> Mon, 07 Jul 2008 02:42:16 -0400 TWTUF.PK).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83772-vietnam-suspends-gold-imports-follows-fdr-s-great-depression-lead?source=feed#comment-198799 198799 Sat, 05 Jul 2008 01:37:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82074-six-quotes-from-fannie-mae-on-the-mortgage-industry?source=feed#comment-196889 196889
1. Fannie Mae currently has $40 billion in available capital

2. Fannie Mae currently holds $74 billion in loans with FICO scores of less than 620 (subprime).

3. Fannie Mae also owns $196 billion in ALT-A loans (basically loans with no documentation where people lied about how much money they make)

4. According to Michael Mayo at Deutsche Bank (a very credible analyst) the default rate on subprime mortgages is estimated at 30-40% and a loss rate of 40-50% on subprime mortgages. This would mean losses for Fannie Mae of between $29.6 - 37 billion.

5. Fannie Mae’s AlT-A porfolio could see losses of between $19.6- 39.2 billion assuming a 10-20% loss rate (which is conservative) The real number is closer to 33%.. Many of these loans were given to subprime individuals who lied about their wages to justify the loan.

6. Fannie Mae faces losses of between $49.2-76.2 billion even though they only have $40 billion in capital. This means at the very least, Fannie Mae would have to raise $9 billion in outside capital to remain solvent. At the worst Fannie Mae would have to raise upwards of $36 billion. It is becoming more difficult for companies to raise new capital. Previous capital injections from foreign governments and private equity have all lost money, making many investors hesitant of investing in financial companies (just ask Warburg Pincus about their Mbia investment).

7. But doesn’t Fannie Mae hedge portions of their mortgage portfolio. Short answer is yes, but to do this Fannie enters into various swap agreements with bond insures like MGIC, PMI, etc. which exposes them to enormous counter-party risk. Many of these companies are themselves on the verge of bankruptcy (PMI trading at $1 a share) and face impending credit downgrades from Moody’s and S&P. Fannie Mae could be in the unenviable position of making money on their hedges but unable to collect the money from their counter-parties.

8. But won't the government save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from bankruptcy? The short answer is yes, but that does not mean that shareholders will be pleased with the outcome. When Fannie and Freddie get near bankruptcy, the US government is more likely to nationalize the firms then simply giving them more capital. This scenario is more likely if Senator Obama is President. When the government nationalizes a company, shareholders often receive next to nothing (think JP Morgan buying Bear Stearns for $2).
]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 20:40:34 -0400
1. Fannie Mae currently has $40 billion in available capital

2. Fannie Mae currently holds $74 billion in loans with FICO scores of less than 620 (subprime).

3. Fannie Mae also owns $196 billion in ALT-A loans (basically loans with no documentation where people lied about how much money they make)

4. According to Michael Mayo at Deutsche Bank (a very credible analyst) the default rate on subprime mortgages is estimated at 30-40% and a loss rate of 40-50% on subprime mortgages. This would mean losses for Fannie Mae of between $29.6 - 37 billion.

5. Fannie Mae’s AlT-A porfolio could see losses of between $19.6- 39.2 billion assuming a 10-20% loss rate (which is conservative) The real number is closer to 33%.. Many of these loans were given to subprime individuals who lied about their wages to justify the loan.

6. Fannie Mae faces losses of between $49.2-76.2 billion even though they only have $40 billion in capital. This means at the very least, Fannie Mae would have to raise $9 billion in outside capital to remain solvent. At the worst Fannie Mae would have to raise upwards of $36 billion. It is becoming more difficult for companies to raise new capital. Previous capital injections from foreign governments and private equity have all lost money, making many investors hesitant of investing in financial companies (just ask Warburg Pincus about their Mbia investment).

7. But doesn’t Fannie Mae hedge portions of their mortgage portfolio. Short answer is yes, but to do this Fannie enters into various swap agreements with bond insures like MGIC, PMI, etc. which exposes them to enormous counter-party risk. Many of these companies are themselves on the verge of bankruptcy (PMI trading at $1 a share) and face impending credit downgrades from Moody’s and S&P. Fannie Mae could be in the unenviable position of making money on their hedges but unable to collect the money from their counter-parties.

8. But won't the government save Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from bankruptcy? The short answer is yes, but that does not mean that shareholders will be pleased with the outcome. When Fannie and Freddie get near bankruptcy, the US government is more likely to nationalize the firms then simply giving them more capital. This scenario is more likely if Senator Obama is President. When the government nationalizes a company, shareholders often receive next to nothing (think JP Morgan buying Bear Stearns for $2).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81702-the-end-of-the-line-for-the-busch-family?source=feed#comment-187368 187368 Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:13:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81030-weyerhaeuser-returning-to-its-roots?source=feed#comment-185734 185734
I think they should divest of their homebuilding segment. Homebuiling has never been a great business (excpet during boom times), it is capital intensive and low margin. IF WY did get rid of this segment (maybe to private equity) they would be closer to a pure play on timber, which makes a great long-term investment. I also wish they would have chosen to become a REIT.]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 01:44:55 -0400
I think they should divest of their homebuilding segment. Homebuiling has never been a great business (excpet during boom times), it is capital intensive and low margin. IF WY did get rid of this segment (maybe to private equity) they would be closer to a pure play on timber, which makes a great long-term investment. I also wish they would have chosen to become a REIT.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80132-orange-juice-derivatives-look-sweet?source=feed#comment-182209 182209 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 23:58:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80346-soybean-crush-crushed?source=feed#comment-182189 182189 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 22:59:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80542-investing-changes-under-a-new-tax-regime?source=feed#comment-181705 181705 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 03:00:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80473-employment-report-disaster?source=feed#comment-181703 181703 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 02:56:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80538-rising-crude-prices-not-necessarily-good-for-oil-stocks?source=feed#comment-181416 181416
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]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80450-is-this-a-recession-and-should-we-care?source=feed#comment-181064 181064 Sat, 07 Jun 2008 23:02:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80214-the-sorry-story-of-jefferson-county-s-sewer-bonds?source=feed#comment-179962 179962
And by the way, who the hell enters into interest rate swaps with JP Morgan as the counterparty? They would never enter into an agreement that could lose them money. They only do deals with chumps like Jefferson county.]]> Thu, 05 Jun 2008 19:03:53 -0400
And by the way, who the hell enters into interest rate swaps with JP Morgan as the counterparty? They would never enter into an agreement that could lose them money. They only do deals with chumps like Jefferson county.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79513-bond-trading-primer-positive-carry?source=feed#comment-176907 176907 Fri, 30 May 2008 14:22:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78553-friday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-172368 172368 Fri, 23 May 2008 01:57:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78554-friday-outlook-resumed-stability?source=feed#comment-172367 172367 Fri, 23 May 2008 01:55:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77744-the-era-of-cheap-crude-is-ending?source=feed#comment-169756 169756
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]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77688-treat-yourself-to-tootsie-roll-industries?source=feed#comment-169729 169729
The only reason I would buy this stock is if Melvin and Ellen died and new management came in to run the company. Hopefully they would sell the company to Private Equity or Hershey. ]]> Sun, 18 May 2008 14:46:47 -0400
The only reason I would buy this stock is if Melvin and Ellen died and new management came in to run the company. Hopefully they would sell the company to Private Equity or Hershey. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77628-everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-this-week-s-market-but-were-afraid-to-look-at-too-closely?source=feed#comment-169471 169471 Sat, 17 May 2008 21:05:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76795-did-reagan-end-the-era-of-free-markets?source=feed#comment-166309 166309 Mon, 12 May 2008 12:51:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76048-wednesday-outlook-the-bad-news-is-the-good-news?source=feed#comment-163421 163421
ps. I am so sick of these dollar bulls saying that the dollar has finally bottomed. Everytime the dollar ticks down I have to hear that we have finally hit a bottom and it is all up from here. LOL! Next stop for euro/dollar 1.65. You have to hadn it to Trichet about holding the line on interest rates and trying to stop inflation. ]]> Wed, 07 May 2008 11:41:19 -0400
ps. I am so sick of these dollar bulls saying that the dollar has finally bottomed. Everytime the dollar ticks down I have to hear that we have finally hit a bottom and it is all up from here. LOL! Next stop for euro/dollar 1.65. You have to hadn it to Trichet about holding the line on interest rates and trying to stop inflation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75790-is-warren-buffett-missing-something?source=feed#comment-163404 163404 Wed, 07 May 2008 11:22:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75645-hugoton-royalty-trust-indications-of-sustainable-yield?source=feed#comment-162428 162428 Tue, 06 May 2008 02:09:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75744-berkshire-hathaway-s-derivative-play?source=feed#comment-162416 162416
On another topic, who would enter into such a puerile contract with Berkshire that the major stock indexes will be lower than they currently are 11 years from now? I have heard it was a few insurance companies who were hedging.
]]> Tue, 06 May 2008 01:27:48 -0400
On another topic, who would enter into such a puerile contract with Berkshire that the major stock indexes will be lower than they currently are 11 years from now? I have heard it was a few insurance companies who were hedging.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73252-tuesday-outlook-dj-vu-all-over-again?source=feed#comment-154998 154998 Tue, 22 Apr 2008 22:46:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73209-blasphemy-burlington-northern-shouldn-t-be-held?source=feed#comment-154486 154486 Tue, 22 Apr 2008 01:39:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64036-helium-investing-in-the-loner-element?source=feed#comment-153581 153581 Sun, 20 Apr 2008 01:35:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72864-friday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-153015 153015 UNG).]]> Fri, 18 Apr 2008 13:08:36 -0400 UNG).]]>