I completely agree with your argument that oil prices will remain high for the forseeable future. The only thing that would lower oil prices is a substantial decline in demand which seems highly unlikely. I believe that oil remain above $100 through 2010 and probably even higher.
Oil is in a bubble stage right know. Fears of a US recession and slower growth in the world does not rationally translate into $100+ oil. In reality oil should be at $60 a barrel. The reason the price is so inflated is because of speculators and momentum traders who have created an asset bubble in commodities. If you had invested in oil when it was at $15--hats off to you. But if you are investing in oil at $100 you are a sheep which will get slaughtered when this asset bubble collapses.
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