sbenard

Unemployment Casts a Long Shadow over Economic Recovery

By the way -- the "real" unemployment rate referenced in the article and attributed to Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge, is taken from the BLS' own website. It is known as the U-6 figure. It rose .5% this past month!

Unemployment Casts a Long Shadow over Economic Recovery

Interesting article, and insightful comments. There seems to be a consensus among these comments that this is a fools gold recovery, and that eventually, current fiscal and economic policies will come home to roost, at which time the picture won't be pretty. Count me among that consensus. Bad policy takes time to rear its ugly head.

We are now seeing the emergence of a two-tiered economy. One tier, composed of the super-rich, bailed-out financial cos., mega-corporations, and the politically-connected, are seeing signs of recovery and prosperity. But Main Street and small businesses are continuing to signs of a worsening economy, and they also see coming higher taxes, especially the entrepreneurial class, which is being targeted with the burden to paying for the cost of the new social programs. This will cripple small businesses with higher costs are the worst possible time, when many are struggling to survive. As these higher taxes and new regulatory structures ripple through the economy, this will have terrible consequences for not just businesses, but jobs!

The worst is yet to come, but it will take time to occur!

Krugman's Deficit Madness

The video of Tamny rebutting Krugman should have been the focus of the article. Thanks for posting that link at the bottom with your article. Unlike Krugman, Tamny is a person IN business.

Those who can, do. Those who can't (like Krugman), teach!

We need to throw many of these brainless academics OUT! No babies with that bath water!

Krugman's Deficit Madness

Indeed. He was smart enough to abandon his liberal policies when the voters abandoned his party. By embracing and singing the Contract With America that Newt and the Republicans proposed, he brought economic growth back to America and created a spirit of bipartisanship to Washington. Too bad that didn't last!


On Aug 31 10:20 AM TVWizard wrote:

> You forgot that under Clinton the debt did go down.

Krugman's Deficit Madness

Krugman's constant Keynesian Koolaid only kicks the can of irresponsibility down the road, but doesn't bring lasting prosperity.

If printing money could bring true prosperity, then counterfeiting would be legal. Ben Bernanke could teach us how! This is fool's gold!

The entitlements we have promised will sink the economic ship. It's only a matter of time!

Buck Is Bottoming: Time to Go Long

Go Brett! I hope you're right! Should keep prices of commodities and inflation in check. Will be watching to see!

'Experts' Claim 2M Jobs Created in August: I'm Skeptical

"In July the number of payroll jobs – before seasonal adjustment – fell 1.3 million, the fourth worst performance since the recession began" -- Mark Lieberman, senior economist, Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York.

Is VIX Being Artificially Depressed by Increased Use of SPXU?

Interesting observation! I had noted the drop in VIX, but hadn't reached any conclusions about the cause. Thanks for the info!

13 Agriculture Myths Busted: This Bubble Is Ready to Pop

Not sure how this plays into this discussion, but I recently read a few articles, mostly at Farm Futures magazine, discussing the impact of Cap and Trade and its higher energy costs, on farms, and especially family-owned farms, which still represent more than 98% of all agricultural land. Suffice it to say that Food is going to cost significantly MORE! How this will impact the price of ag real estate is debatable, but certainly worth adding into the discussion.

Personally, I hope the author is correct and that ag land will decline in price. I'd like to buy some, too!

Interesting ideas in this thread. Thanks for sharing, all!

Natural Gas ETF Launches; A Natural Gas Primer

I'm still waiting for someone to announce and INVERSE natural gas ETF listed in the US. I only know of one, and its listed on the London Stock Exchange. Such an ETF would have been perhaps the most profitable ETF thus far in 2009, since natural gas prices have been falling throughout the year. Not until last week did we see a one-day rally in natural gas.

Get a clue, ETF providers. You dropped the ball and lost an opportunity in this case!

What Would Happen if the CFTC Limited Energy Speculation?

This article is nothing but a personal opinion and policy recommendation from an unknown person. It uses a short clip of a Bloomberg article, but not real analysis other than the author's personal opinion. The author doesn't even reveal a real identity!

This will, if implemented, have catastrophic impacts on the effective functioning of the futures markets. It will lead to capital flight as money flees the Dollar, thus causing commodity prices to RISE. It will shrink the liquidity pool, thus giving GREATER leverage to well-heeled investors and companies. Would you rather swim with a blue whale in the Pacific Ocean -- or the local swimming pool? The antidote to too much influence by a few large market participants is NOT to SHRINK the liquidity pool. The antidote is to INCREASE it so that no single market participant can throw their blue whale weight around! Remember the Hunt Bros' attempt to corner the world silver market? Their influence -- and prices -- collapsed when the liquidity pool expanded until the Hunts could no longer manipulate it!

Speculators play a critically important role in the commodity markets, and they have since they were created nearly 150 years ago.

All the scholarly research, including studies completed by both the Fed and the CFTC, have consistently shown that speculative funds have NOT been driving commodity prices. Coincidence is NOT causality! It is not coincidental that the only organizations that have the data on speculative trading -- the CFTC and the futures exchanges -- have consistently and repeatedly found that speculative interests were NOT driving prices in the commodity markets.

Some of the finest research on this subject has been done by Scott, Irwin, Phd. He is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois.

Here are a few links to some of his writing and research on the subject:

www.econbrowser.com/ar...
www.econbrowser.com/ar...
www.econbrowser.com/ar...

Among other things, the CFTC study revealed some of the following:

1) CFTC study last fall, following the commodity boom last year, found that speculators were NOT the cause of higher prices.
2) The study found that speculators were EVENLY split between long and short positions.
3) The study found that NON-exchange-traded commodities rose HIGHER and FASTER in price than exchange-traded ones! Speculators tend to STABILIZE prices, not drive them. Speculators are the first ones to see an overbought market and short that market. They FOLLOW trends; they don't create trends!
4) Speculative trades represented a smaller percentage of trades in 2008, during the commodity boom, than they did in 2006 when there was no commodity boom. Presence of speculators tends to DAMPEN and reduce price swings, NOT exacerbate them!
5) Speculative trades in any given commodity represented only 15-18% of the total. Since they were mostly split between longs and shorts, speculative longs were only about 8-9% of the total in any given commodity. There is no way a small minority of the trades could have controlled or driven the market.

Stop reacting to media-driven emotionality over arbitrage in the commodity markets, folks! If we allow this to happen, it WILL lead to HIGHER commodity prices, and collapsing Dollar, and both food shortages and long lines at the gas pump -- GUARANTEED!

Strange Inconsistencies in the $134.5 Billion Bearer Bond Mystery

Historically, during the American Revolution against Britain, the Americans printed paper Continental Dollars (sound familiar?) to fund the War. When the British learned of it, they counterfeited the Continentals, paying American merchants with them for supplies. The colonies were soon so awash in them that they were devalued and became virtually worthless. This is where the phrase, "not worth a continental" came from. This is one reason why the Founders banned notes and paper money in the Constitution, even discussing making it a capital offense! They understood the catastrophe that is unbridled minting of money!

Santayana said that those who don't learn the lessons of history... are doomed to repeat them. We haven't learned much in the past 230 years, have we?

Why Gold Is Losing Its Shine

Meanwhile, the price of gold has been RISING lately!

Soft Commodities Starting to Scream 'Inflation'

And by the way:
When the Fed acknowledges inflation, they are already behind the ball. Watch the commodity markets instead!

Soft Commodities Starting to Scream 'Inflation'

I have been using commodities as both a hedge AND a leading indicator for inflation. There is a lag between the prices of commodities and both PPI and CPI, with CPI being the last to show up with inflation.