sbenard's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/124722/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/160188-unemployment-casts-a-long-shadow-over-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-664974 664974 Mon, 07 Sep 2009 09:19:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160188-unemployment-casts-a-long-shadow-over-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-664965 664965
We are now seeing the emergence of a two-tiered economy. One tier, composed of the super-rich, bailed-out financial cos., mega-corporations, and the politically-connected, are seeing signs of recovery and prosperity. But Main Street and small businesses are continuing to signs of a worsening economy, and they also see coming higher taxes, especially the entrepreneurial class, which is being targeted with the burden to paying for the cost of the new social programs. This will cripple small businesses with higher costs are the worst possible time, when many are struggling to survive. As these higher taxes and new regulatory structures ripple through the economy, this will have terrible consequences for not just businesses, but jobs!

The worst is yet to come, but it will take time to occur!]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 09:14:11 -0400
We are now seeing the emergence of a two-tiered economy. One tier, composed of the super-rich, bailed-out financial cos., mega-corporations, and the politically-connected, are seeing signs of recovery and prosperity. But Main Street and small businesses are continuing to signs of a worsening economy, and they also see coming higher taxes, especially the entrepreneurial class, which is being targeted with the burden to paying for the cost of the new social programs. This will cripple small businesses with higher costs are the worst possible time, when many are struggling to survive. As these higher taxes and new regulatory structures ripple through the economy, this will have terrible consequences for not just businesses, but jobs!

The worst is yet to come, but it will take time to occur!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159131-krugman-s-deficit-madness?source=feed#comment-654644 654644
Those who can, do. Those who can't (like Krugman), teach!

We need to throw many of these brainless academics OUT! No babies with that bath water!]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:11:30 -0400
Those who can, do. Those who can't (like Krugman), teach!

We need to throw many of these brainless academics OUT! No babies with that bath water!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159131-krugman-s-deficit-madness?source=feed#comment-654619 654619

On Aug 31 10:20 AM TVWizard wrote:

> You forgot that under Clinton the debt did go down.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 11:00:46 -0400

On Aug 31 10:20 AM TVWizard wrote:

> You forgot that under Clinton the debt did go down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159131-krugman-s-deficit-madness?source=feed#comment-654614 654614
If printing money could bring true prosperity, then counterfeiting would be legal. Ben Bernanke could teach us how! This is fool's gold!

The entitlements we have promised will sink the economic ship. It's only a matter of time!]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:58:20 -0400
If printing money could bring true prosperity, then counterfeiting would be legal. Ben Bernanke could teach us how! This is fool's gold!

The entitlements we have promised will sink the economic ship. It's only a matter of time!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159133-buck-is-bottoming-time-to-go-long?source=feed#comment-654599 654599 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:51:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159103-experts-claim-2m-jobs-created-in-august-i-m-skeptical?source=feed#comment-654597 654597 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 10:49:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151585-is-vix-being-artificially-depressed-by-increased-use-of-spxu?source=feed#comment-603870 603870 Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:22:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148224-13-agriculture-myths-busted-this-bubble-is-ready-to-pop?source=feed#comment-603519 603519
Personally, I hope the author is correct and that ag land will decline in price. I'd like to buy some, too!

Interesting ideas in this thread. Thanks for sharing, all!]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 10:47:31 -0400
Personally, I hope the author is correct and that ag land will decline in price. I'd like to buy some, too!

Interesting ideas in this thread. Thanks for sharing, all!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32721-natural-gas-etf-launches-a-natural-gas-primer?source=feed#comment-595145 595145
Get a clue, ETF providers. You dropped the ball and lost an opportunity in this case!]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 11:50:02 -0400
Get a clue, ETF providers. You dropped the ball and lost an opportunity in this case!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147441-what-would-happen-if-the-cftc-limited-energy-speculation?source=feed#comment-582519 582519
This will, if implemented, have catastrophic impacts on the effective functioning of the futures markets. It will lead to capital flight as money flees the Dollar, thus causing commodity prices to RISE. It will shrink the liquidity pool, thus giving GREATER leverage to well-heeled investors and companies. Would you rather swim with a blue whale in the Pacific Ocean -- or the local swimming pool? The antidote to too much influence by a few large market participants is NOT to SHRINK the liquidity pool. The antidote is to INCREASE it so that no single market participant can throw their blue whale weight around! Remember the Hunt Bros' attempt to corner the world silver market? Their influence -- and prices -- collapsed when the liquidity pool expanded until the Hunts could no longer manipulate it!

Speculators play a critically important role in the commodity markets, and they have since they were created nearly 150 years ago.

All the scholarly research, including studies completed by both the Fed and the CFTC, have consistently shown that speculative funds have NOT been driving commodity prices. Coincidence is NOT causality! It is not coincidental that the only organizations that have the data on speculative trading -- the CFTC and the futures exchanges -- have consistently and repeatedly found that speculative interests were NOT driving prices in the commodity markets.

Some of the finest research on this subject has been done by Scott, Irwin, Phd. He is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois.

Here are a few links to some of his writing and research on the subject:

www.econbrowser.com/ar...
www.econbrowser.com/ar...
www.econbrowser.com/ar...

Among other things, the CFTC study revealed some of the following:

1) CFTC study last fall, following the commodity boom last year, found that speculators were NOT the cause of higher prices.
2) The study found that speculators were EVENLY split between long and short positions.
3) The study found that NON-exchange-traded commodities rose HIGHER and FASTER in price than exchange-traded ones! Speculators tend to STABILIZE prices, not drive them. Speculators are the first ones to see an overbought market and short that market. They FOLLOW trends; they don't create trends!
4) Speculative trades represented a smaller percentage of trades in 2008, during the commodity boom, than they did in 2006 when there was no commodity boom. Presence of speculators tends to DAMPEN and reduce price swings, NOT exacerbate them!
5) Speculative trades in any given commodity represented only 15-18% of the total. Since they were mostly split between longs and shorts, speculative longs were only about 8-9% of the total in any given commodity. There is no way a small minority of the trades could have controlled or driven the market.

Stop reacting to media-driven emotionality over arbitrage in the commodity markets, folks! If we allow this to happen, it WILL lead to HIGHER commodity prices, and collapsing Dollar, and both food shortages and long lines at the gas pump -- GUARANTEED! ]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:09:19 -0400
This will, if implemented, have catastrophic impacts on the effective functioning of the futures markets. It will lead to capital flight as money flees the Dollar, thus causing commodity prices to RISE. It will shrink the liquidity pool, thus giving GREATER leverage to well-heeled investors and companies. Would you rather swim with a blue whale in the Pacific Ocean -- or the local swimming pool? The antidote to too much influence by a few large market participants is NOT to SHRINK the liquidity pool. The antidote is to INCREASE it so that no single market participant can throw their blue whale weight around! Remember the Hunt Bros' attempt to corner the world silver market? Their influence -- and prices -- collapsed when the liquidity pool expanded until the Hunts could no longer manipulate it!

Speculators play a critically important role in the commodity markets, and they have since they were created nearly 150 years ago.

All the scholarly research, including studies completed by both the Fed and the CFTC, have consistently shown that speculative funds have NOT been driving commodity prices. Coincidence is NOT causality! It is not coincidental that the only organizations that have the data on speculative trading -- the CFTC and the futures exchanges -- have consistently and repeatedly found that speculative interests were NOT driving prices in the commodity markets.

Some of the finest research on this subject has been done by Scott, Irwin, Phd. He is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois.

Here are a few links to some of his writing and research on the subject:

www.econbrowser.com/ar...
www.econbrowser.com/ar...
www.econbrowser.com/ar...

Among other things, the CFTC study revealed some of the following:

1) CFTC study last fall, following the commodity boom last year, found that speculators were NOT the cause of higher prices.
2) The study found that speculators were EVENLY split between long and short positions.
3) The study found that NON-exchange-traded commodities rose HIGHER and FASTER in price than exchange-traded ones! Speculators tend to STABILIZE prices, not drive them. Speculators are the first ones to see an overbought market and short that market. They FOLLOW trends; they don't create trends!
4) Speculative trades represented a smaller percentage of trades in 2008, during the commodity boom, than they did in 2006 when there was no commodity boom. Presence of speculators tends to DAMPEN and reduce price swings, NOT exacerbate them!
5) Speculative trades in any given commodity represented only 15-18% of the total. Since they were mostly split between longs and shorts, speculative longs were only about 8-9% of the total in any given commodity. There is no way a small minority of the trades could have controlled or driven the market.

Stop reacting to media-driven emotionality over arbitrage in the commodity markets, folks! If we allow this to happen, it WILL lead to HIGHER commodity prices, and collapsing Dollar, and both food shortages and long lines at the gas pump -- GUARANTEED! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143462-strange-inconsistencies-in-the-134-5-billion-bearer-bond-mystery?source=feed#comment-552367 552367
Santayana said that those who don't learn the lessons of history... are doomed to repeat them. We haven't learned much in the past 230 years, have we?]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:58:16 -0400
Santayana said that those who don't learn the lessons of history... are doomed to repeat them. We haven't learned much in the past 230 years, have we?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135012-why-gold-is-losing-its-shine?source=feed#comment-494142 494142 Thu, 07 May 2009 13:32:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134949-soft-commodities-starting-to-scream-inflation?source=feed#comment-492292 492292 When the Fed acknowledges inflation, they are already behind the ball. Watch the commodity markets instead!]]> Wed, 06 May 2009 13:16:24 -0400 When the Fed acknowledges inflation, they are already behind the ball. Watch the commodity markets instead!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134949-soft-commodities-starting-to-scream-inflation?source=feed#comment-492288 492288 Wed, 06 May 2009 13:15:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135562-weyerhaeuser-s-reaction-indicates-the-end-of-the-rally-is-near?source=feed#comment-491477 491477 Wed, 06 May 2009 06:17:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129655-congressional-budget-office-doubles-estimated-tarp-cost?source=feed#comment-454405 454405 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 02:02:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129655-congressional-budget-office-doubles-estimated-tarp-cost?source=feed#comment-454404 454404 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 01:57:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126827-the-real-insider-scoop-on-aig?source=feed#comment-454400 454400
Does no one question that the writer who placed that post on that linked forum probably had a bone to pick, hence they mentioned that they worked for a "sister company"? Tyler, you've placed some other very interesting articles here, which I have really enjoyed, but this particular one falls short of that quality you've demonstrated. There is a lot of good stuff on SA, but this one doesn't rise to the usual high standard, as far as I'm concerned. ]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 01:48:19 -0400
Does no one question that the writer who placed that post on that linked forum probably had a bone to pick, hence they mentioned that they worked for a "sister company"? Tyler, you've placed some other very interesting articles here, which I have really enjoyed, but this particular one falls short of that quality you've demonstrated. There is a lot of good stuff on SA, but this one doesn't rise to the usual high standard, as far as I'm concerned. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129763-new-case-shiller-etf-a-more-liquid-method-for-taking-on-housing-exposure?source=feed#comment-454382 454382 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 01:14:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129763-new-case-shiller-etf-a-more-liquid-method-for-taking-on-housing-exposure?source=feed#comment-454375 454375 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 00:57:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126360-aig-obligated-to-pay-bonuses-bull?source=feed#comment-430142 430142
My gains as a futures trader are no more "ill-gotten", as you purport, than any other investor's, including yours. I am no Wall Street banker. I've never worked on Wall Street, neither literally nor figuratively. I have never received a single penny of bailouts from the taxpayers. All of my gains in the futures market are honest trades that I've made without any help from the taxpayers. I have always been opposed to all the bailouts throughout the entirety of this imbroglio. If I had my way, ALL of the trillions of dollars of taxpayer funds wasted on bailouts would never have occurred.

However, I believe that when a company signs a contract with its employees, it has a duty to keep that contract. I also believe in the Constitution, and I have clearly indicated in this forum how abrogating those contractual obligations are a violation of three clauses in the US Constitution. Once again, since you can't win the argument, you hurl insults and false accusations at me!

Your repeated abuse tells no one in this forum anything of me. Your abusive behavior is the greatest testament to not only your nature, but your ideas as well. It reveals to everyone what type of person you are. I don't need to say anything in retaliation against you. You've done a fine job of accomplishing that yourself.]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 01:21:03 -0400
My gains as a futures trader are no more "ill-gotten", as you purport, than any other investor's, including yours. I am no Wall Street banker. I've never worked on Wall Street, neither literally nor figuratively. I have never received a single penny of bailouts from the taxpayers. All of my gains in the futures market are honest trades that I've made without any help from the taxpayers. I have always been opposed to all the bailouts throughout the entirety of this imbroglio. If I had my way, ALL of the trillions of dollars of taxpayer funds wasted on bailouts would never have occurred.

However, I believe that when a company signs a contract with its employees, it has a duty to keep that contract. I also believe in the Constitution, and I have clearly indicated in this forum how abrogating those contractual obligations are a violation of three clauses in the US Constitution. Once again, since you can't win the argument, you hurl insults and false accusations at me!

Your repeated abuse tells no one in this forum anything of me. Your abusive behavior is the greatest testament to not only your nature, but your ideas as well. It reveals to everyone what type of person you are. I don't need to say anything in retaliation against you. You've done a fine job of accomplishing that yourself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126360-aig-obligated-to-pay-bonuses-bull?source=feed#comment-429933 429933
I have found that people engage in insult, straw man, and name-calling because they can't win their "case" with persuasion and good argument. Thus, they must engage in personal attacks and insults.

"Profanity is the effort of a weak mind to express itself forcefully." Spencer W.Kimball]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 19:48:09 -0400
I have found that people engage in insult, straw man, and name-calling because they can't win their "case" with persuasion and good argument. Thus, they must engage in personal attacks and insults.

"Profanity is the effort of a weak mind to express itself forcefully." Spencer W.Kimball]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126360-aig-obligated-to-pay-bonuses-bull?source=feed#comment-429927 429927 Case closed!]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 19:38:40 -0400 Case closed!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126360-aig-obligated-to-pay-bonuses-bull?source=feed#comment-429922 429922
Case closed!

By the way, the Constitution also prohibits Congress from passing legislation ex post facto (after the fact) to punish an individual or group for doing something. It is called the "bill of attainder clause". So when the same Senators that placed the provision into the (mis-named) "stimulus" bill to protect those contracts, and now vow to tax the entire bonus at 100% in punitive legislative, it will be challenged in the courts, and they will strike it down under the "bill of attainder" clause of the Constitution.

Case closed!


On Mar 17 03:54 PM A.M. Freed wrote:

> Contracts made under false pretenses, while withholding material
> information, or with the intent to defraud are null and void.
>
> Case closed.
>
> If you actually read it, dipsht, no one used the NY Times to support
> an argument, only to relay the background story material.
>
> And they are a hell of a lot more successful than you are, regardless
> of their current financial state.
>
> And what are you sucking on in your picture? It's hard to tell,
> but I have a few guesses.]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 19:34:23 -0400
Case closed!

By the way, the Constitution also prohibits Congress from passing legislation ex post facto (after the fact) to punish an individual or group for doing something. It is called the "bill of attainder clause". So when the same Senators that placed the provision into the (mis-named) "stimulus" bill to protect those contracts, and now vow to tax the entire bonus at 100% in punitive legislative, it will be challenged in the courts, and they will strike it down under the "bill of attainder" clause of the Constitution.

Case closed!


On Mar 17 03:54 PM A.M. Freed wrote:

> Contracts made under false pretenses, while withholding material
> information, or with the intent to defraud are null and void.
>
> Case closed.
>
> If you actually read it, dipsht, no one used the NY Times to support
> an argument, only to relay the background story material.
>
> And they are a hell of a lot more successful than you are, regardless
> of their current financial state.
>
> And what are you sucking on in your picture? It's hard to tell,
> but I have a few guesses.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126360-aig-obligated-to-pay-bonuses-bull?source=feed#comment-429485 429485 Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:02:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126360-aig-obligated-to-pay-bonuses-bull?source=feed#comment-429465 429465
Like everyone else, I am indignant that taxpayer funds have been used to pay out huge bonuses in a company that has received a bailout out of my pocketbook. However, I also believe that the when employees of a company have earned bonuses through their toil and have lived up to their side of a contractual agreement, they deserve to be paid the bonuses they've earned. I doubt they deserve it, but if they've earned it based upon existing contracts and in good faith, they should be paid. The laborer is worthy of his hire.

If AIG had been allowed to fail, and had used the bankruptcy courts under a Chapter 11 filing, these contracts would have been dissolved by the Bankruptcy Court. The whole argument would have been a moot point. We probably wouldn't have even heard about it, because taxpayer funds would never have been used in the first place.

(By the way, our Constitution also empowers Congress to create bankruptcy laws under the "bankruptcy clause", which, in the wisdom of the Founders, creates an environment in which bad assets based upon bad decisions can be liquidated in a civil and fair manner for all stakeholders. Unfortunately, few people in Washington or Wall Street care about the Constitution any more. The further we stray from the principles embodied therein, the more trouble we create for ourselves! The further we stray, the more the successful American experiment becomes a failure. That's the natural consequence of an arrogant straying from the success formula they gave us.)

Your insistence that lawyers should simply look for loopholes in contractual agreements so they can break their word say much about your character and that of the macro society in which we live today, but nothing about the validity of those contractual agreements and obligations. The more legalistic minds seek to break not only their contractual agreements, but their WORD, the more a tyrannical government is required to reign in all our immoral behavior. Gradually, but surely, the crushing weight of more and more laws and legalistic language makes "criminals of us all".]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:53:17 -0400
Like everyone else, I am indignant that taxpayer funds have been used to pay out huge bonuses in a company that has received a bailout out of my pocketbook. However, I also believe that the when employees of a company have earned bonuses through their toil and have lived up to their side of a contractual agreement, they deserve to be paid the bonuses they've earned. I doubt they deserve it, but if they've earned it based upon existing contracts and in good faith, they should be paid. The laborer is worthy of his hire.

If AIG had been allowed to fail, and had used the bankruptcy courts under a Chapter 11 filing, these contracts would have been dissolved by the Bankruptcy Court. The whole argument would have been a moot point. We probably wouldn't have even heard about it, because taxpayer funds would never have been used in the first place.

(By the way, our Constitution also empowers Congress to create bankruptcy laws under the "bankruptcy clause", which, in the wisdom of the Founders, creates an environment in which bad assets based upon bad decisions can be liquidated in a civil and fair manner for all stakeholders. Unfortunately, few people in Washington or Wall Street care about the Constitution any more. The further we stray from the principles embodied therein, the more trouble we create for ourselves! The further we stray, the more the successful American experiment becomes a failure. That's the natural consequence of an arrogant straying from the success formula they gave us.)

Your insistence that lawyers should simply look for loopholes in contractual agreements so they can break their word say much about your character and that of the macro society in which we live today, but nothing about the validity of those contractual agreements and obligations. The more legalistic minds seek to break not only their contractual agreements, but their WORD, the more a tyrannical government is required to reign in all our immoral behavior. Gradually, but surely, the crushing weight of more and more laws and legalistic language makes "criminals of us all".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117818-the-case-for-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-419436 419436
Does anyone know of an ETF registered in the U.S. to short nat gas? If so, could you please PM me with the ticker symbol? Thanks!]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 13:48:46 -0400
Does anyone know of an ETF registered in the U.S. to short nat gas? If so, could you please PM me with the ticker symbol? Thanks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124055-why-did-geithner-duck-the-question?source=feed#comment-415550 415550
It just doesn't seem to me to make sense that we can just keep printing money to buy our own debt without limit. It just looks, smells, and feels like a ponzi scheme and house of cards to me.

What do you all see as the consequences of this scheme if it DOESN'T work? What if investors all flee U.S. government debt, and ONLY the Fed buys it? Would that be the beginning of the end?]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 07:00:57 -0500
It just doesn't seem to me to make sense that we can just keep printing money to buy our own debt without limit. It just looks, smells, and feels like a ponzi scheme and house of cards to me.

What do you all see as the consequences of this scheme if it DOESN'T work? What if investors all flee U.S. government debt, and ONLY the Fed buys it? Would that be the beginning of the end?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61662-rick-santelli-takes-down-jim-cramer?source=feed#comment-394767 394767 Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:46:05 -0500