sbenard

http://globalcapital.blogspot.com
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207 Comments

    • Sat Jul 12th 12:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fear of Higher Taxes a Cause of Sell-off
      icandoitdon,

      You claim that anyone who disagrees with you is by definition "uneducated" and that therefore their though processes are "mindless drivel" is truly elitist, just like Obama. Your post has to be one of the most condescending statements I've heard in a very long time. Typical liberal elitism that suggests that anyone who disagrees with you must therefore be stupid. Excuse me while I go to the restroom and puke!
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 12th 12:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fear of Higher Taxes a Cause of Sell-off
      Wow! It's an Obama neighborhood here.

      I don't think the author is suggesting that Obama is the sole cause of a depressed market. He is merely suggesting that it is another factor contributing to it. If so, this phenomenon will accelerate through the second half of the year, especially if polls suggest Obama is likely to win.

      Small business owners that I am talking to are particularly concerned about an Obama presidency. Several have already started laying off workers in anticipation. They are definitely in the mode of contracting and preparing for the possibility, and rebalancing their assets to try to shield themselves. Anything less would be poor business management. The phenomenon is real, whether we want to admit it or not. The degree to which it affect the economy is certainly debatable, but denying ANY impact is simply DENIAL on our parts.
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    • Sat Jul 12th 12:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bond Expert: Friday Outlook
      I follow the 10 yr treasury futures. What a start reversal in one day, especially for treasuries! This one reversal formed a bearish engulfing pattern the engulfed the previous four days!
      This whole things stumped me. Bonds and interest rate futures often do. Are we to understand that the fear of more U.S. government debt increases the likelihood of distaste for treasuries, and hence, interest rates rose markedly on Friday? Might we also then assume that since the whole rumor started by the NYT was debunked, we should therefore expect another reversal on Monday? Or might the Indymac takeover add more fuel to the fire of more government debt, therefore a greater sell-off in treasuries next week? Much confusion in the markets!
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    • Fri Jul 11th 14:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Government's Inflation Statistics Not Fooling Everyone
      Hanson, thanks for taking the time to share a fascinating perspective.

      Unfortunately, I'm now sick to my stomach.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 14:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Far Could Oil Prices Fall?
      I have a trader buddy that just bought into the new DB/Powershares ETNs that short crude oil. He's got more courage than I do to short crude oil. At the first sign of a hurricane forming that could enter the Gulf of Mexico, crude oil could easily hit $150 with a day.

      Thanks, Kathy, for adding some perspective to the price of crude oil.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 14:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Face of Oil ETFs
      One more thing --

      The previous Macroshares oil ETFs -- UCR and DCR -- sometimes had a rather poor correlation to the price of crude oil. I wonder if the new ones will work any better. ??
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 14:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The New Face of Oil ETFs
      Speaking of impact on crude oil prices. Here is a fascinating phenomenon using empirical data from today's crude oil markets about how difficult it is for speculators to affect oil prices, even despite huge sums of money:

      globalcapital.blogspot...

      Thanks for bring attention to the new Macroshares oil ETFs. I had been eagerly awaiting them.

      Deutsche Bank and Proshares also have some new crude oil ETNs. They use long, double long, short, and double short strategies. The symbols are DXO, DTO, SZO, and OLO. Like the Macroshares, they use treasuries to secure oil trades. This adds a slight interest yield to the fund's returns. I prefer this strategy over USO, which simply buys oil futures, and thus, doesn't have the interest yield. However, unlike the Macroshares, they don't have the price constraints that the MS ETFs have. These price constraints were what forced the liquidation of the previous MS ETFs.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 14:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      USL Oil Fund Struts Its Stuff
      USL even today has only about 1/10th of 1% of the volume of USO, and the spread is about 15 cents. The spread of USO is 1 cent. I would really like to see USL reach a size where I can feel good about trading it. It's simply a better way to trade oil.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 14:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      USL Oil Fund Struts Its Stuff
      Great article. I had been wondering about this for some time. USO and USL were both developed by the same company. However, I haven't traded USL because the volume and liquidity have been rather poor, IMHO.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 3rd 16:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Gross To 'President' Obama: Double The Deficit
      Hey you dipwits--

      Bill Gross was KIDDING! He was saying those things tongue-in-cheek. He is really suggesting that Obama's plan is over-the-top irresponsible, and impossible to carry out.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 2nd 14:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Today's Payrolls Number - How Bad Will It Be?
      Thanks for the perspective, Kathy. I wasn't aware of the Trichet variable at the same hour. As usual, your perspective is both timely and helpful.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 1st 17:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Debate On Levered / Inverse ETFs
      The Double levered ETFs consistently have substantially higher volume compared to the unlevered ones, even within the same family of funds. In fact, the double levered ones are so much more liquid, they often have 10X more money in them, making them easier to get in and out of. However, they also tend to have slightly higher bid/ask spreads. I only trade the double levered ones because the liquidity is so much better.
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    • Fri Jun 27th 19:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      TTM Speculative Activity Actually Decreased on the NYMEX
      To those who think speculation is driving oil prices higher. Put your money where you mouth is. Buy one of the ETFs that SHORT oil. I suggest that you don't really believe your own arguments, until you are doing that.

      If the Saudis or other OPEC ministers genuinely believed that oil prices are too high due to speculation, they could easily use their trillions of Dollars of oil wealth to SHORT the market. But they don't. Making silly arguments for government regulation is one thing, but NONE of these people really believe their arguments because they don't put up. I say it's time to SHUT up, because they have NO credibility.
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    • Fri Jun 27th 19:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      TTM Speculative Activity Actually Decreased on the NYMEX
      It constantly amazes me that regardless of how much data is collected that disproves the silly ideas of jjason and the other socialists (whose ideas above are obvious), these ideas continue to proliferate. Perhaps we SHOULD impose all sorts of onerous government impositions on the financial markets. Such ideas as these -- to anyone who really understands these markets -- are blatantly and obviously ridiculous. This idea of eliminating margins is one of those that is so absurd -- and the consequences so negative -- that any serious and informed person would reject them out of hand. If we embrace such impositions, then there will be consequences. They will be terrible.

      Capital flight will be one. When $3 trillion of capital flight disposes of the dollar, then higher commodity prices will be the result. Hyperinflation may be the consequence. Remember the 570 points on the Dow futures during the MLK holiday? That was a $50 billion liquidation. What would happen when $3 flees the Dollar? Do you think that capital will stay where it is NOT welcome?

      Oil from foreign nations that is unwelcome on these shores due to driving away the risk-takers in our society will find its way to places where it is more welcome. Shortages -- and much higher prices -- will be the result. Guaranteed.

      Only two organizations have the data -- the CFTC, and the futures exchanges. Both are united -- and the data supports it -- that speculators are not the cause of high energy (and other commodity) prices. No one else has the data. This article presents just SOME off that data. The other data show what this article shows. But some minds are more closed to facts than a bear trap. They have made up their erroneous minds regardless of what the empirical evidence shows. If we ignore the data and act out of emotionalism and error, then we will bear the terrible consequences.

      We'd better be careful what we wish for, because we may very well get it. The voices for tyranny are loudest during times of pain. "Put me (or my ideas) in control!" But the results are still tyrannical and destructive. The problem is that tyrant are never willing to relinquish power, no matter how destructive or often their ideas fail.
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    • Mon Jun 23rd 13:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      I'm neither Democrat nor Republican. I think they all stink. But Kelly Lieberman, if you really feel that way, why not move to Cuban or Venezuela, where you can enjoy fruits of your philosophies? Venezuela, thanks to a Marxist dictator, now has widespread food shortages in a country that used to provide for its own, and enjoys vast oil wealth. Socialism and its believer keep promoting its destructive philosophies again and again, despite its repeated failures.
      View article »
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