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Slick E

Slick E
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  • Are ESPN's Best Days Behind It? [View article]
    ESPN had a great thing going for a long time. Sportscenter was an awesome way to catch up with all the games you missed, see a few highlights, and catch any big stories.

    But it's become the Lebron/Manziel/Tebow super-fun time hour. It's unwatchable, and I honestly don't know anyone who watches it any more. There must be someone out there since they keep going further and further down that path, I just don't know who those people are or why they'd watch it.

    The entire network, outside of live sports broadcasts, has become an infomercial for about a dozen stars and the NBA/NFL. It's ridiculous. What used to be my go-to station when I turned the TV on is one I don't even stop at when flipping through the channels.
    Aug 22 09:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I'm Doing With My Kinder Morgan Shares As A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Dividends#1,

    Sorry, somehow I totally missed the question at the end of your comment. Wasn't being rude, just totally whiffed on reading it.

    Fortunately or unfortunately, I've given up trying to figure out short-term price movements. I have no idea. My "good advice" tends to be tied to obvious mathematical opportunities like the one provided above.

    I do think, and this has been the case since I started tracking it, that KMI and KMR will be attached at the hip. So if people buy up KMR for the reason I listed, people will then start buying KMI again because it'll be "cheaper" when the mathematical advantage swings the other way.

    I have no idea where KMI/KMR will go price-wise, but I feel pretty strongly that KMR and KMI will move in lock-step, staying just a shade below the 2.4849 multiple.
    Aug 13 04:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I'm Doing With My Kinder Morgan Shares As A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    A few months back, I split my KMR holdings into roughly equal parts KMI and KMR. One for dividend growth, the other for yield. Obviously in hindsight I would have been better off keeping it all in KMR, but I think the decision was sound based on what I knew at the time.

    At this point, I'm waiting for my KMI dividend reinvestment to come through on Friday and then I'm selling my KMI shares and buying KMR with that money. The price difference seems to be locked into a 2.42-2.43x range every time I check, so it's selling at a slight discount to the deal value, and I might as well get the higher yield in the meantime.

    The risk of course is in capital loss if the deal were to not go through, but I don't see that happening. I'll be watching for either a brief spike in KMI or drop in KMR to pull the trigger and goose the exchange just a little bit more.
    Aug 13 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I'm Doing With My Kinder Morgan Shares As A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    If you decide to pull the trigger on KMI, make sure you check KMR first. If it's selling for less than 2.4849x KMI's price, buy KMR instead. You'll also get the benefit of a higher yield while you wait for the deal to close, in addition to getting more KMI shares than if you just bought KMI directly.
    Aug 13 09:36 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    Daniel,

    I'd go exactly the opposite way you're playing it. DGI investing requires time, it's the most important piece and it's the only one you've got now that you won't have 10 years from now.

    Get yourself a solid base. Build a DGI portfolio now as the foundation for your retirement. At 30 or 35, start taking on those riskier investments and see if you can build a big gaudy mansion on that DGI foundation. But you need the foundation first or any slip-ups just might decimate you.

    To put it another way, speculative small-caps will still be there in 5, 10, 15, and 20 years. But your ability to do ungodly amounts of compounding via DGI will not.
    Aug 12 10:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Merging All Partnerships Into Single Company [View article]
    No dumb questions except the ones you don't ask, Peter.

    The $89.98 value is based on the price of KMI at closing on August 8, and it's really just for illustrative purposes. Based on KMI's value right now, the number would be $97.11 because of KMI's 9% bump today.

    The important numbers are 2.1931 KMI shares and $10.77 in cash, the total "value" will be moving all over the place.
    Aug 11 04:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Merging All Partnerships Into Single Company [View article]
    If he were "insider trading", wouldn't he have bought KMR instead? Then he would have benefited from the premium granted to KMR and ended up with the same KMI shares. KMR would have been the much better play.

    To put it another way...

    On June 4, if you bought $10K worth of KMR, you'd have ~135 shares, which will be converted to ~343 shares of KMI.

    If you bought $10K worth of KMI, you'd have ~293 shares of KMI.

    So, 343 shares (plus a higher dividend yield in the meantime) if he bought KMR, 293 shares of KMI. And that premium isn't price dependent on the reaction to the news, that's strictly based on the formula they're using.

    Translation: If he were pulling a fast one, he would have done it 17% better by purchasing KMR, and he would have known that. I think you're reaching.
    Aug 11 04:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Is Going To Make More Money In The Future [View article]
    Or it could mean they're buying back shares at a price point they consider to be cheap? Wouldn't that be good business as well?

    Everything you said could have been (and was) said about Apple a year ago. Sometimes the market is wrong, or at the very least late. I mean, isn't the entire theory of value investing based around the idea that the market is wrong sometimes and certain equities remain undervalued when they shouldn't be?
    Aug 7 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's looks to turn over customers quicker [View news story]
    Jeez, special order any item at any drive-thru now and it's a 50/50 proposition that they get it right. I'm guessing those percentages plunge if they're being rushed even more. Note to self: always check before driving away.
    Aug 6 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box office: Strong expectations for Guardians of the Galaxy [View news story]
    There's way too much buzz about this movie for it to end up like John Carter.

    Marvel/Disney has built themselves a ton of goodwill with their previous films and people are going to continue to see them until they put out a stinker. The initial glowing reviews (currently 93% on Rotten Tomatoes) suggest that it won't be this movie.
    Jul 30 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Excitement That Surrounds Gilead [View article]
    Marek,

    There are literally dozens of articles on SA right now explaining why they think Mr. Market is wrong and the stock is undervalued.

    This is like a repeat of the AAPL arguments I'd read about a year ago. Funny thing happened - Apple, despite being the most valuable company in the world already, is up about 50% since then.

    So if your theory is that Mr. Market can't be wrong about a mega-cap company that everyone's talking about, you don't have to go back too far to see it's incorrect.

    Using your logic there'd be no such thing as a value stock. Does that make any sense?
    Jul 25 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple declares $0.47 dividend [View news story]
    Were people expecting an off-schedule dividend bump for some reason? Why are people complaining about something that's exactly as expected.

    It also seems weird to ignore what almost 50% in price appreciation does to a dividend yield. Ya, the yield is now pretty low. But if JNJ or KO were to go up 50% in the next year, they too would have a "pretty low" yield. Would anyone be complaining about that?
    Jul 22 11:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reynolds American buys Lorillard in $27.4B deal [View news story]
    I've got to believe that RAI is dropping on fear of the deal not going through because LO shareholders are upset.

    Otherwise why would RAI, which has been rising in anticipation of this very deal with expectation of paying MORE, be down big? If the deal goes through in its current state that's a big win for RAI, right?

    Under that theory, the RAI price would rebound significantly if the deal were approved.

    Someone tell me if I'm missing something here. Could it be that RAI shareholders upset with the divestiture of Blu that getting LO for less than speculated doesn't even matter? That seems unlikely, but RAI dropping like this at all seemed unlikely.
    Jul 15 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reynolds American buys Lorillard in $27.4B deal [View news story]
    My pleasure. I was a rookie once, way back in 2013. :)
    Jul 15 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reynolds American buys Lorillard in $27.4B deal [View news story]
    The fear is that the offer is so low that the LO stockholders reject the deal, which puts the entire merger at risk. In which case, the LO stock price probably falls even further because it had run up based on the merger.

    There are a couple of things that mitigate that risk, especially if you're a long-term investor, and that's why I bought a little bit more LO this morning.

    A lot of shareholders want LO to not sell out because they've been a great company. They're growing market share and profits faster than all the other tobacco companies and they've been great in expanding their dividend. So even in the worst case scenario, you've got a great company but you overpaid for it, so you'll probably be underwater for a while. Again, not crippling if you're a long-term investor but not optimal either.

    Another potential possibility (and I don't know how possible, just acknowledging its existence) is that the LO shareholders reject the offer and then RAI comes back with a better one. That scenario would be a coup for anyone buying in now.
    Jul 15 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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118 Comments
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