Lynn

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Mark Zandi of Economy.com produced a chart showing the impact of the stimulus package on the quarterly GDP. According to the chart, the govt stimulus would create a 3.5% increase in GDP during 2009Q3. This implies that all of the growth in 3rd quarter GDP was due to the stimulus. The impact on 2009Q4 and 2010Q1 GDP growth would be 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Eli, The Hang Seng was up 2.06% (not 20.6%). This typo gave me a bigger jolt than my morning cup of espresso.

PS: I like the new spell checker feature.

The Curse of Being Added to the S&P 500

I believe Standard & Poors announces their additions and deletions in advance, so the price wouldn't be sharply affected on the day the index is changed. I wonder if these stocks 'moved' on the announcement and then corrected after the index was modified.

Factory Orders Rise at Fastest Rate Since April 2008

I wonder if Cash for Clunkers was responsible for the increase.

Capstead Mortgage: Despite Crisis, Still in Good Shape

Past performance is no indication of future returns.


On Aug 21 11:21 AM Alan Young wrote:

> I invested in several mortgage REITs last year, and they have been
> great performers, with about 40% total returns on my investment to
> date and ongoing dividends.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Dr. O, When discussing global warming you need to look at the data for all the months in the year, not just July. You also need to look at temperatures around the planet, not just one city.

Mixed Bag

Fitz: The Birth/Death model added 185k jobs to the NFP data.

Would You Buy This Stock?

I'm guessing that this index gets updated once a month, so any pricing action during the month would be from changes in the premium/discount.

Wheat Crisis: The Next Black Swan?

I read about Wheat Stem Rust in May of 2008 and made the following notes. It reduces the number of seeds that wheat produces and can kill the plant. It crossed the Red Sea into Yemen in Dec 2007. It is currently spreading across Africa, Asia and, most recently, the Middle East. The fungus could spread to the US within 5 years.
It is dormant in the winter and revives in the spring.
On April 2, 2008 the Gates Fdn awarded a $28.6 million grant to Cornell University to combat Wheat Stem Rust. The "Durable Rust Resistance in Wheat" project will bring together 15 institutions from around the world to develop a wheat that is resistant to the stem rust threat.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

About 5 years ago we had the Hummer Tax Loophole which allowed huge deductions for small businesses (doctors, lawyers, real estate agents) buying SUVs. Now we have the cash-for-clunkers to encourage those same businesses to sell their gas guzzlers and buy an energy-efficient vehicle.
I think our government is just reacting to whatever happens rather than coming up with a well thought-out plan.

Growth Outperforming Value

YTD the financial and utilities sectors have held Value stocks down, while the energy sector has helped Growth stocks outperform the SP500.

S&P 500 Valuation with Normalized Earnings

Richard,

It appears you are using Operating Earnings, not As-Reported Earnings.

Faber Peddling Gloom, Doom, Inflation, and Gold

I went back and reviewed the tape, Faber was asked if the US would experience hyperinflation as seen in Zimbabwe. He replied, "Not that high, but close to it."

Today's Market vs. 1938

Commenters,
This is not a graph of the Great Depression, it is a graph of the 1937/38 bear market. Bespoke did not screw up.

Follow the Bouncing Stocks

You can visit his website for a larger view of the chart.