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8 Comments

    • Apple's AT&T Deal Is Costly [view article]
      Todd
      Where do you get the estimates? 1 B in lost revenue? You assume that ATT would sell every Iphone Apple could make, which may or may not be the case. The revenue is for 2 yrs not 4. You have no idea what the future holds and based on all the new carriers for Iphone 2. I think you are grossly exaggerating the financial impact of the ATT contract. ATT has an exclusive for the US and no where else. The contract is good for both companies. It allowed Apple to get started in a new business and ATT to capture new high end customers. Verizon had a chance to sell the iphone       May 14 08:11 PM
    • Apple's Bountiful Revenues Are Bigger Than Ever [view article]
      T Muller. I agree with you and good analysis. Just a couple small points. A portion of the qtrly sales revenue will be reported on the 1.703M sold in the quarter. I base this on the fact the 5M of Iphone revenue was recognized Q3 07 with only 3 days of sales. It looks like Apple does daily accounting of numbers for revenue calculation although we are analyzing using quarterly accounting. Also Apple has started adding in the ATV revenue which will further muddy the water in determining a actual GM and carrier payment Apr 28 07:56 AM
    • Apple's Bountiful Revenues Are Bigger Than Ever [view article]
      Stephen
      The non current line on the deferred revenue is over a year out and would be minimally affected by the rebate, since Apple would have already taken the rebate charge when it was redeemed. The revenue is less because they didn't record the transaction after Mar 6 and until 2.0 software is released
      (2) This is a profound drop in expected deferred income which I suspect has to do with the $100 rebates offered when Apple cut its iPhone price. Adding $816 + $624 from 12/07 gives $1440. Removing 1/8th of this should leave $1260 for non-current 3/08.

      The way you list the calculation is not correct. The non-current deferred would include all the revenue which will not be recognized this year. The new non-current would then add in the amount which is non-current from the current qtrs sales. For 1.7 Mil @ 400 you get 628 M total revenue. 1/8 current qtr 78.5 for Mar 08 1/2 current deferred 314M and 3/8 non- current 235M.       Apr 27 11:12 AM
    • Research in Motion: Unlike Apple, No Slowdown in Subscriber Growth [view article]
      Todd
      When did Apple say they were experiencing a slowdown in Iphone sales?
      The only data discussed at the CC was 3.704 Mil at end of year and 4 Mil by SJ at Mac World. How does this equate to this big slowdown. What data shows Apple has cutback production of the Iphone? While I agree that a lower price will increase sales, it will also reduce margins and affect profitability. I think Apple's doing great by not having to sell a phone at $99 and hope the carriers give them a large enough payback. Also I don't think Apple wants to set the price artificially low to gain customers because they would cannibalize the IPOD touch sales if the Iphone were cheaper.       Feb 25 09:48 AM
    • Three Reasons I Chose Microsoft over Apple for Home Media [view article]
      Blah123
      The author was talking about using the 360 as a media extender. Not a gaming machine. The 360 rocks as a gaming machine other than two glaring problems. The thing is loud and the hardware fails all too often. The facts are the facts. In my family 7 of 8 have had to return their system to Microsoft. I'm the only one that has not. That sucks for the 3 weeks your without a machine.
      As far as your WII comment it is not a high end gaming machine but has out sold the 360. In my house the 360 gets used more than the WII, but when we travel we take the WII for the social aspect. It's a hoot to have a boxing match against all the relatives and friends.

      If your buying a 360 for gaming and then using as a media extender to save a few bills, more power to you, but to go off and buy three when you don't really play games is crazy.

      I think the idea of cutting the cable bill is interesting. Comcast sucks 7$ of my money every month so I can have the honor of watching HD on my big screen. At least apple doesn't have all the hidden subscription costs. Its pay as you go, which for me is alot better.

      As far as the XPS 420, it looks like a great machine, but I'm confused on how you are using the system. Looks like a classic desktop system. Where are you hiding the box. It looks like a great system to serve up content. Good luck running the ethernet around the house.       Feb 12 05:11 PM
    • Three Reasons I Chose Microsoft over Apple for Home Media [view article]
      Glad you have all that spare $$. My god 3 XBOX 360's. At least you'll have a unit available when you have to return one for repair. I love the on-line game play of the 360 and we use the DVD player, but the thing sounds like a tank when the fan is running. For me it sucks cause I can't close my glass cabinet door. Otherwise the thing overheats. I don't own an Atv but I think the idea is get rid of the DVD and use a digital file. 1358 dell vs 799 mac mini. How it that about the same price. Feb 12 10:13 AM
    • A Closer Look at Apple Stock [view article]
      Dan
      I think the growth rates are way understated. The Mac market is on fire growth rates of 40%. Gartner just projected that the US market share would double by CY 11. The Iphone is a whole new market area and is selling well. Apple is accounting for Iphone revenue over 24 months. How are you factoring this into your model. If we assume apple sells 10 Million Iphones in CY08 plus the 4 million already sold. Revenue for the 14 million phones will be recognized in your second year. If we assume a sale price of $400 that becomes 1.4 billion in new revenue. If we assume 75% of the phones carry a monthly carrier payment of $10 we get another 1.26 Billion in new revenue. The numbers for FY 07 understate the revenue stream from the phone because of the deferment. Also why a P/E ratio of 18. Historically Apple has commanded a much higher P/E, I would suggest using 35.
      The other problem I have with the analysis is you try to project a 10 year growth rate. I bought apple stock in 1999 for 9.30 a share. I have a unrealized gain of 1355%. So maybe this is a better guess at 10 year growth rate. For folks looking at the current price and trying to determine whether they can make money on the price. I think the stock is a buy. I am modeling for 6.15 EPS for FY08 with a P/E of 35 give me a $215 price. I am assuming 30% YOY revenue growth in MAC, Software, Music and Peripherals and 10% growth in IPOD revenue and then add in the I phone revenue based on the 3.704 Million already sold and quarterly sales of 1.8M, 2.5M, 3.0M for the remainder of the year. My quarterly EPS numbers 1.76, 1.29, 1.44, 1.66       Feb 01 10:41 AM
    • AT&T's "Edge" Network Shatters iPhone Mobile Web Expectations [view article]
      I had the same problem with the rebate. Apple support had me reinput my info into the rebate apply ation and it worked fine the second time. They were aware of the problem with some rebates. As far as the edge network, its slow but works great for checking sports scores when your out and about. Also i surf the home wifi when the kids take the computer
       Nov 26 09:13 AM
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