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A Breakdown or a Bear Trap? Will There Be a Rally on Wednesday?

The initial action today speaks for a pullback. How strong we'll see.

Housing Bottom - Oh Really?

Real estate is not a good investment for the next 5 years, unless you are short.

Waiting for the Market's Other Shoe to Drop

We are entering the fourth turning, a time of crisis and more governmental interventions. Very much based on the ebb, tide and seasons of history.


On Sep 08 02:22 PM Michael Clark wrote:

> This is a key to understanding this depression, and why a depression
> is different than a depression. A depression is a psychic death,
> a psychological tide change, from expansion (implying faith in the
> future) to contraction (implying doubt about the future). When I
> say this depression is a spiritual depression, I mean this. The
> spirit 'leaves' the body, abstracts itself from the joys of materialism.
> During an Expansion Phase, the spirit fills the body, driving it
> into external manifestation, Desire driving the body into seeking
> material gain, accumulation of titles, property, families, empire,
> heroic destiny, pleasure. There is no sense of limits as the periphery
> of the expanding bubble is projected further into the future. <br/>
>
> Then the bubble pops, the spirit abstracts itself from the body,
> turns inward, recedes like a great wave. When Desire no longer animates
> and vitalizes the material body, the material world withers.
>
> High tides and low tides are, of course, metaphors for this process.
>

Strong Start for Bull Market, But Investors Are Nervously Eyeing the Exits

This is a bear market rally and as such we could get to the 50% fib before the correction is over.

Rethinking the Baltic Dry Index

You need to adjust for change in US dollar value. The dollar topped out on March 9.

Marc Faber: Buy a Machine Gun

Amen to that, brother.


On Sep 04 01:39 PM ebworthen wrote:

> Commercial real estate will collapse, but the FED will save only
> the big boys; smaller and community banks will be fed to the sharks.
>
>
> Porkulus II, Porkulus III....FDR all over again.
>
> I wonder when they will confiscate gold, have a bank "holiday", set
> withdrawal limits on IRA's and 401K's (e.g. - not allow you to take
> it out, tax the balance, and tell you where it must be invested)
> ?????
>
> Marc Faber's bigger point is that as a nation we are morally bankrupt.
> Our work ethic is out the window, and we have sold ourselves down
> the river for flat screen televisions, plastic junk from China, and
> keeping up with the Jones's as the basis of self-esteem. Besides
> that, we don't produce real goods anymore other than food and space
> junk.

Paul Tudor Jones and macro funds are placing their economic bets, and they're against Goldman Sachs (GS) and its predictions that the recovery is under way. Clarium's Kevin Harrington: "This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later."

I highly doubt that Goldman Sachs is long anything but their external trading recommendations. We all know that they say one thing and do another, they are gaming the system.

Paul Tudor Jones is a rock star with an independent mind that knows how to read markets. Search "for Paul Tudor Jones video" on Google to watch one of his few interviews.

Can GS sell calls or buy puts on their own stock? If they can, they are. :D

Selling Good News Does Not a Bull Market Make

It's not good news versus bad news but more the wave patterns of the markets. The markets were oversold in March and created a short term up trend (bear market rally) that was feeding on anything. We might now be breaking that up wave with a down wave that will be feeding on anything going... down.

Rationalizing the markets is futile, just follow the trend and wave patterns. In the end of the day I'd rather be wrong and making money than vice versa. :)

Mixed Housing Data: Clearing Up the Picture

Great article!

Real estate is moving into the *great depression* from being in denial and panic over the past 2-3 years. We have a very long bottoming process ahead of us. Once the lower end bargain hunting and the always strong April - Aug season is over we'll drop another 15-20% YoY.

AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG

Only buy American if we offer the best product on the market. Let the best product win independently of where the company originates. The Germans builds the best premium cars, the Japanese the best mid-market cars and the South Koreans the best low-end cars. We build the best clunkers, gas-guzzlers and overpriced low-quality cars in the world.

Buy American these days means Apple, Google and Amazon - outstanding products, outstanding companies.

Just buying American products for the sake of buying American is a disfavor to the world free market economy and a flawed legacy from the cold war 50s.


On Aug 28 05:40 PM KDG wrote:

> WFC made it this far based on criteria for debt rating to would be
> borrowers and even they are not out of the woods by any means. It
> is a singular factor.
>
> The great square has no corners.
>
> Markets are a quantum oscillating entity that may have predictability
> at the level of HFT. Since this may be the case then any good conspiracy
> theory regarding the current sitch would have to include it with
> respect to the absurd volume on the 4 horseman (FRE, FNM, AIG, C).
>
>
> The debt at FNM may be insolvent at present, although to argue that
> b/c it is currently insolvent, the share price should not be worth
> a penny, it is hubris.
>
> In fact it closed today at 2 and change.
>
> Sure it might plummet. Time is the great equalizer and hindsight
> is 20/20. Pick up a few shares and wait, along with the US govt,
> for the industry to return to solvency.
>
> And for the love of God, buy American.

AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG

How can it be a free market if the government needs to intervene? Free markets don't exist - that's the myth.


On Aug 28 02:17 PM KDG wrote:

> Who here would sell low on underwater if they had to? Absolutely
> no one. Govt assisting AIG getting help on it's feet (FNM and FRE
> for that matter) might just be akin to an underwater homeowner on
> the west coast getting help from his family in the midwest so they
> can carry debt into a more liquid and beneficial circumstance. <br/>
>
> All these naysayers may as well be in bed with socialism. There is
> no greed going on here. This is our govt stabilizing the American
> free market capital system....and so far it is working. Inflation
> is a myth.
>
> Buy American - it is that simple. AIG, FNM, FRE

Are we nearing the end of this rally?

Looks like all indices are slowly rolling over. What's lacking is volume but we'll get that next week.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

The target has been 1,000-1,100 since back in March. Patience will pay off on the short side as it did on the long side.

Take a look at the daily and weekly S&P chart and you will see... It's possible that we breakout of 1,040 and run to 1,121 but that's it.

This is the time to sell into strength for the conservative investor and start taking short positions (w/ tight stops) for the trader. G/L!


On Aug 28 12:30 PM Tack wrote:

> Too funny. Almost too recently to mention the "smart traders" were
> saying that the SPX couldn't penetrate 880. Then, it was 940. Now,
> it's 1040 that's "magical."
>
>
>
>

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

This is probably the worst time *ever* to invest in equities. Any smart trader / investor has been selling into this top.

Folks, we are in a bear market rally in a secular and cyclical bear market. Just watch how the S&P is rejecting 1,040 for the nth time. Breaking 1,014 will get us quickly to retest 980.

Disclaimer: Short S&P and long short financials.

The Most Crucial Time of Day for Bulls

It's called a stick save.

Looks like the futures are now green so we might get another pop this morning...