Per's Comments

A Breakdown or a Bear Trap? Will There Be a Rally on Wednesday?

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 10:02:05 -0400

The initial action today speaks for a pullback. How strong we'll see.

Housing Bottom - Oh Really?

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:31:15 -0400

Real estate is not a good investment for the next 5 years, unless you are short.

Waiting for the Market's Other Shoe to Drop

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:03:30 -0400

We are entering the fourth turning, a time of crisis and more governmental interventions. Very much based on the ebb, tide and seasons of history.

On Sep 08 02:22 PM Michael Clark wrote:

> This is a key to understanding this depression, and why a depression
> is different than a depression. A depression is a psychic death,
> a psychological tide change, from expansion (implying faith in the
> future) to contraction (implying doubt about the future). When I
> say this depression is a spiritual depression, I mean this. The
> spirit 'leaves' the body, abstracts itself from the joys of materialism.
> During an Expansion Phase, the spirit fills the body, driving it
> into external manifestation, Desire driving the body into seeking
> material gain, accumulation of titles, property, families, empire,
> heroic destiny, pleasure. There is no sense of limits as the periphery
> of the expanding bubble is projected further into the future.

>
> Then the bubble pops, the spirit abstracts itself from the body,
> turns inward, recedes like a great wave. When Desire no longer animates
> and vitalizes the material body, the material world withers.
>
> High tides and low tides are, of course, metaphors for this process.
>

Strong Start for Bull Market, But Investors Are Nervously Eyeing the Exits

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 22:14:33 -0400

This is a bear market rally and as such we could get to the 50% fib before the correction is over.

Rethinking the Baltic Dry Index

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 10:49:37 -0400

You need to adjust for change in US dollar value. The dollar topped out on March 9.

Marc Faber: Buy a Machine Gun

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 13:48:44 -0400

Amen to that, brother.

On Sep 04 01:39 PM ebworthen wrote:

> Commercial real estate will collapse, but the FED will save only
> the big boys; smaller and community banks will be fed to the sharks.
>
>
> Porkulus II, Porkulus III....FDR all over again.
>
> I wonder when they will confiscate gold, have a bank "holiday", set
> withdrawal limits on IRA's and 401K's (e.g. - not allow you to take
> it out, tax the balance, and tell you where it must be invested)
> ?????
>
> Marc Faber's bigger point is that as a nation we are morally bankrupt.
> Our work ethic is out the window, and we have sold ourselves down
> the river for flat screen televisions, plastic junk from China, and
> keeping up with the Jones's as the basis of self-esteem. Besides
> that, we don't produce real goods anymore other than food and space
> junk.

Paul Tudor Jones and macro funds are placing their economic bets, and they're against Goldman Sachs (GS) and its predictions that the recovery is under way. Clarium's Kevin Harrington: "This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later."

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 09:34:36 -0400

I highly doubt that Goldman Sachs is long anything but their external trading recommendations. We all know that they say one thing and do another, they are gaming the system.

Paul Tudor Jones is a rock star with an independent mind that knows how to read markets. Search "for Paul Tudor Jones video" on Google to watch one of his few interviews.

Can GS sell calls or buy puts on their own stock? If they can, they are. :D

Selling Good News Does Not a Bull Market Make

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 09:27:46 -0400

It's not good news versus bad news but more the wave patterns of the markets. The markets were oversold in March and created a short term up trend (bear market rally) that was feeding on anything. We might now be breaking that up wave with a down wave that will be feeding on anything going... down.

Rationalizing the markets is futile, just follow the trend and wave patterns. In the end of the day I'd rather be wrong and making money than vice versa. :)

Mixed Housing Data: Clearing Up the Picture

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:11:06 -0400

Great article!

Real estate is moving into the *great depression* from being in denial and panic over the past 2-3 years. We have a very long bottoming process ahead of us. Once the lower end bargain hunting and the always strong April - Aug season is over we'll drop another 15-20% YoY.

AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 13:34:42 -0400

Only buy American if we offer the best product on the market. Let the best product win independently of where the company originates. The Germans builds the best premium cars, the Japanese the best mid-market cars and the South Koreans the best low-end cars. We build the best clunkers, gas-guzzlers and overpriced low-quality cars in the world.

Buy American these days means Apple, Google and Amazon - outstanding products, outstanding companies.

Just buying American products for the sake of buying American is a disfavor to the world free market economy and a flawed legacy from the cold war 50s.

On Aug 28 05:40 PM KDG wrote:

> WFC made it this far based on criteria for debt rating to would be
> borrowers and even they are not out of the woods by any means. It
> is a singular factor.
>
> The great square has no corners.
>
> Markets are a quantum oscillating entity that may have predictability
> at the level of HFT. Since this may be the case then any good conspiracy
> theory regarding the current sitch would have to include it with
> respect to the absurd volume on the 4 horseman (FRE, FNM, AIG, C).
>
>
> The debt at FNM may be insolvent at present, although to argue that
> b/c it is currently insolvent, the share price should not be worth
> a penny, it is hubris.
>
> In fact it closed today at 2 and change.
>
> Sure it might plummet. Time is the great equalizer and hindsight
> is 20/20. Pick up a few shares and wait, along with the US govt,
> for the industry to return to solvency.
>
> And for the love of God, buy American.

AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 13:25:36 -0400

How can it be a free market if the government needs to intervene? Free markets don't exist - that's the myth.

On Aug 28 02:17 PM KDG wrote:

> Who here would sell low on underwater if they had to? Absolutely
> no one. Govt assisting AIG getting help on it's feet (FNM and FRE
> for that matter) might just be akin to an underwater homeowner on
> the west coast getting help from his family in the midwest so they
> can carry debt into a more liquid and beneficial circumstance.

>
> All these naysayers may as well be in bed with socialism. There is
> no greed going on here. This is our govt stabilizing the American
> free market capital system....and so far it is working. Inflation
> is a myth.
>
> Buy American - it is that simple. AIG, FNM, FRE

Are we nearing the end of this rally?

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 16:41:24 -0400

Looks like all indices are slowly rolling over. What's lacking is volume but we'll get that next week.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 13:52:55 -0400

The target has been 1,000-1,100 since back in March. Patience will pay off on the short side as it did on the long side.

Take a look at the daily and weekly S&P chart and you will see... It's possible that we breakout of 1,040 and run to 1,121 but that's it.

This is the time to sell into strength for the conservative investor and start taking short positions (w/ tight stops) for the trader. G/L!

On Aug 28 12:30 PM Tack wrote:

> Too funny. Almost too recently to mention the "smart traders" were
> saying that the SPX couldn't penetrate 880. Then, it was 940. Now,
> it's 1040 that's "magical."
>
>
>
>

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 12:21:30 -0400

This is probably the worst time *ever* to invest in equities. Any smart trader / investor has been selling into this top.

Folks, we are in a bear market rally in a secular and cyclical bear market. Just watch how the S&P is rejecting 1,040 for the nth time. Breaking 1,014 will get us quickly to retest 980.

Disclaimer: Short S&P and long short financials.

The Most Crucial Time of Day for Bulls

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 09:08:10 -0400

It's called a stick save.

Looks like the futures are now green so we might get another pop this morning...

Latte, Anyone? What the Starbucks Chart Tells Us About the Economy

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 14:56:51 -0400

Look at the daily and weekly chart; it's overbought.

How to Trade Using Game Theory

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 13:39:05 -0400

Great article and strategic thinking. I agree with your position and timeframe. This week will be interesting.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 12:40:00 -0400

Phil - great articles and coverage of the markets. I've read them for the past few years. Got introduced via Tom's blog. Btw: Do you know if he's still blogging? The old site is down.

Are we nearing the end of this rally?

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 10:46:38 -0400

The 950-1,000 zone has been my target all along. Very possible we could hit 1,100 (50% fib) within the next few days. Then it will gradually be getting ugly. I agree on your downward targets.

Excellent reading of the market into OPEX. It's a classic pattern that repeats itself over and over. I remember when OIH broke $200 and continued up 1-2 days after OPEX and then dove. I think we'll have the same action here.

I've been grabbing putters in SSO and USO with both hands this morning. The market has created a lot of false bullish confidence over the past few days. Tight stops.

It's All in the Timing

Fri, 21 Aug 2009 12:21:02 -0400

Excellent post. TAO is very hard but a fun intellectual exercise.

Credit Card Delinquency Wave Reaching Tidal Force

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 09:26:28 -0400

It's heartbreaking as all this predatory credit card companies have been preying on weak consumers for years; offering them 0% to get them sucked into a life in debt with no chance to pay back.

I had to get on the "do not mail list" to get all these promotions to stop coming into our household. There has to be regulations to prevent this from happening as it ends up being us tax payers that have to foot the bill in the end of the day.

Next wave will be brutal as credit card debt is the most illicit of any debt, accelerating with 15-20% per year. Cash is king and soon - as in Argentina - we'll get a discount if paying with cash versus credit cards. I got 10% off when I serviced my car a few months ago as I paid with cash.

The only way to survive this gargantuan storm is to stop consuming, paying off all debt and focus on creating positive cash-flow. Any buying of assets over the next 2 deflationary years is insanity.

Fibonacci Stops Rally in China?

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 12:02:44 -0400

Great post. I'm looking at 950 as the first stop. If that breaks we'll get back down to 880 fairly quickly.

Double Top or Advance the Rock?

Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:39:02 -0400

Great approach and mindset.

The 50%+ run from March to August is not surprising; we are in a secular bear market and are experiencing a cyclical bear market rally. The markets are topping out and both Nasdaq and S&P are failing to break 2,000 and 1,000 (sure, the *machines* pulled it above the last 10-minutes which is insignificant).

I agree, we are slowly rolling over. Come next week we'll see even more profit taking with 2-3% down days. G/L!

On Aug 14 08:41 AM Suzanne H. wrote:

> Trying to think like a programmer (since I used to be one in a past
> life) -- I don't see us slicing through the 38% retrace of the entire
> move from top to bottom (around 1014 on spx) without retracing 38%-50%
> of this recent rally first. Credit markets are getting weak again.
> Of course I could be mistaken, and my stops on my 3 inverse positions
> (DUG/FXP/EEV) are tight so I will get stopped out (likely today)
> if we do punch through. Small risk big reward if we don't go higher.
> Trading is about playing the odds, and if we are up against other
> machines or humans same rules apply -- buy/sell discipline w/risk
> management.
>
> In fact we humans will find an edge as we will spot patterns more
> efficiently than a programmer, especially if things in the past don't
> work -- we will adapt faster. That is why we can't get a machine
> to drive a car, whereas most of us can drive and talk and eat....
> Our only downfall is emotions, so if we can learn to take that out
> of the equation and trade on technicals we should be able to profit.

2009 Is Looking an Awful Lot Like 2008

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 14:05:51 -0400

Cash will be king over the next deflationary years. The market is frothy here at best and going sidelines until the next direction is clear is smart.

Expect Further Rise in the S&P 500

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 20:22:31 -0400

Well, from a technical perspective there is no reason to be bullish again until we are breaking through the established resistance levels across the indices. Once we have another breakout - as with 875, 950 et cetera - there is an argument to go long.

It's all about timeframes. My take is that we'll see a pullback to 950 and then another try at 1,000. Nothing goes straight down, not even during last fall. But analyzing the bigger picture the money is definitely on the bears.

On Aug 11 12:20 AM PearlCreek wrote:

> Looks like Brian stirred up a hornets nest. The great Michael Steinhart
> today on CNBC made an extraordinary proclamation that he knows nobody
> that is long term bullish on the U.S.
>
> That is an incredible statement from one of the great money managers
> of all time given what surely must be his vast social and professional
> investment network.
>
> The current bearish chatter reminds me of the 1999-2000 bullish chatter.
> The same bluster, the overwhelming proclamations of certainty, the
> same main thread of "things are different", the same main street/retail
> group think, and the parallels to clinging to a few themes that if
> repeated enough will most certainly come to fruition.
>
> If you are wildly bearish, you have good reason to be and all the
> ammunition you need. The arguments are clear, concise, and logical.
> When things are that clear as the bear case is now, my warning lights
> go off. Sorry bears, but the "walk over and pick money up in the
> corner" has already been made. If you didn't profit wildly from
> last summer to March, you are a salmon swimming upstream.
>
> I am not wildly bullish, but if you haven't flipped the trading switch
> in your brain to at least allow the possibility of further gains,
> you are not doing your job as a trader or an investor.

Why Comments Matter

Sun, 09 Aug 2009 21:37:27 -0400

Comments are what makes post interesting to read.

More Thoughts on Doubling Down

Sun, 09 Aug 2009 21:07:20 -0400

Great article. Changing direction of a company heading the wrong direction but with potential is very hard and takes time. But what's inevitable should be immediate.

Paying for News: Let's Get On with It

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:45:11 -0400

The last generation that would pay for news are the retiring baby-boomers. The soon to be ruling Gen X and Y (now ruling the web) are used to get information for free (i.e paying with their attention).

The need for mass-marketing is declining and therefore all these media empires monopoly. The model for print advertising is very ineffective, bombarding everyone with the same message with the hope of 0.01% conversion rates.

Media moguls still believe that they can charge for their content several times over. The only content I'd pay for would be niche, actionable completely ad-free. But that would be killing the advertising models as they would loose me for their target group.

On Aug 07 08:37 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

> I worked in the information industry a long time--not the news business,
> but the information industry: "must-have" information needed by attorneys,
> scientists, banks, doctors, educators, investors, and others who
> could not do their jobs without it. And believe me, they all paid
> big bucks to get it. Ad-free.
>
> The key phrase is "must-have," and I think it applies to this discussion.
> What percentage among all the stuff published as "news" today is
> "must-have" for the reader? I've seen votes above for WSJ, NYT, FT,
> and a couple of others. I suspect that some afficionados of the political
> spinmeisters and "journalists" of Fox, MSNBC, etc. would be willing
> to pay for their daily fix, but not most. Would you pay for Seeking
> Alpha? Probably not. S&P? Maybe a little. CNBC? Maybe. Bill O'Reilly?
> Some would. American Idol? Lots of people would. NFL telecasts? Probably,
> assuming you could not get them free somewhere else. Rush Limbaugh?
> Some dittoheads would pay. It all depends on whether you "must have"
> it or not.
>
> The traditional news model--ad-based, supplemented by subcription
> fees--is dead or dying. The "must-have" content--the news and many
> of the opinions--is available for free in too many places. The biggest
> former source of revenue--want ads--are free now. Let the experiments
> begin, but my prediction is that only those sites with the most absolutely
> unique and magnetic content will be able to charge for it. And those
> are very few indeed.

Goldman's Macro-Bulls Out in Full Force

Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:21:10 -0400

Very funny.

Looks like we are failing the key levels this morning but the day is far from over. WE are still in a very tight trading range so either we break out today or Monday or we fail with a 5% pullback.

The market is overbought but I would not be surprised if we headed higher after all this pumping and *good news*. Eventually, the markets will plummet.

On Aug 07 07:58 AM Harry Tuttle wrote:

> Abby Cohen actually retired in the 90's. They guys at GS just kept
> a tape of her saying she sees 20% upside on the S&P and they
> play it over and over.

AT&T: The (Apple) Brand Destroyer

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 10:03:05 -0400

Great article.

The way to surpass AT&T w/o jail-breaking is to get a MiFi device (via Verizon). This could work both as a home and a mobile WiFi router.