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Latte, Anyone? What the Starbucks Chart Tells Us About the Economy

Look at the daily and weekly chart; it's overbought.

How to Trade Using Game Theory

Great article and strategic thinking. I agree with your position and timeframe. This week will be interesting.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Phil - great articles and coverage of the markets. I've read them for the past few years. Got introduced via Tom's blog. Btw: Do you know if he's still blogging? The old site is down.

Are we nearing the end of this rally?

The 950-1,000 zone has been my target all along. Very possible we could hit 1,100 (50% fib) within the next few days. Then it will gradually be getting ugly. I agree on your downward targets.

Excellent reading of the market into OPEX. It's a classic pattern that repeats itself over and over. I remember when OIH broke $200 and continued up 1-2 days after OPEX and then dove. I think we'll have the same action here.

I've been grabbing putters in SSO and USO with both hands this morning. The market has created a lot of false bullish confidence over the past few days. Tight stops.

It's All in the Timing

Excellent post. TAO is very hard but a fun intellectual exercise.

Credit Card Delinquency Wave Reaching Tidal Force

It's heartbreaking as all this predatory credit card companies have been preying on weak consumers for years; offering them 0% to get them sucked into a life in debt with no chance to pay back.

I had to get on the "do not mail list" to get all these promotions to stop coming into our household. There has to be regulations to prevent this from happening as it ends up being us tax payers that have to foot the bill in the end of the day.

Next wave will be brutal as credit card debt is the most illicit of any debt, accelerating with 15-20% per year. Cash is king and soon - as in Argentina - we'll get a discount if paying with cash versus credit cards. I got 10% off when I serviced my car a few months ago as I paid with cash.

The only way to survive this gargantuan storm is to stop consuming, paying off all debt and focus on creating positive cash-flow. Any buying of assets over the next 2 deflationary years is insanity.

Fibonacci Stops Rally in China?

Great post. I'm looking at 950 as the first stop. If that breaks we'll get back down to 880 fairly quickly.

Double Top or Advance the Rock?

Great approach and mindset.

The 50%+ run from March to August is not surprising; we are in a secular bear market and are experiencing a cyclical bear market rally. The markets are topping out and both Nasdaq and S&P are failing to break 2,000 and 1,000 (sure, the *machines* pulled it above the last 10-minutes which is insignificant).

I agree, we are slowly rolling over. Come next week we'll see even more profit taking with 2-3% down days. G/L!


On Aug 14 08:41 AM Suzanne H. wrote:

> Trying to think like a programmer (since I used to be one in a past
> life) -- I don't see us slicing through the 38% retrace of the entire
> move from top to bottom (around 1014 on spx) without retracing 38%-50%
> of this recent rally first. Credit markets are getting weak again.
> Of course I could be mistaken, and my stops on my 3 inverse positions
> (DUG/FXP/EEV) are tight so I will get stopped out (likely today)
> if we do punch through. Small risk big reward if we don't go higher.
> Trading is about playing the odds, and if we are up against other
> machines or humans same rules apply -- buy/sell discipline w/risk
> management.
>
> In fact we humans will find an edge as we will spot patterns more
> efficiently than a programmer, especially if things in the past don't
> work -- we will adapt faster. That is why we can't get a machine
> to drive a car, whereas most of us can drive and talk and eat....
> Our only downfall is emotions, so if we can learn to take that out
> of the equation and trade on technicals we should be able to profit.

2009 Is Looking an Awful Lot Like 2008

Cash will be king over the next deflationary years. The market is frothy here at best and going sidelines until the next direction is clear is smart.

Expect Further Rise in the S&P 500

Well, from a technical perspective there is no reason to be bullish again until we are breaking through the established resistance levels across the indices. Once we have another breakout - as with 875, 950 et cetera - there is an argument to go long.

It's all about timeframes. My take is that we'll see a pullback to 950 and then another try at 1,000. Nothing goes straight down, not even during last fall. But analyzing the bigger picture the money is definitely on the bears.


On Aug 11 12:20 AM PearlCreek wrote:

> Looks like Brian stirred up a hornets nest. The great Michael Steinhart
> today on CNBC made an extraordinary proclamation that he knows nobody
> that is long term bullish on the U.S.
>
> That is an incredible statement from one of the great money managers
> of all time given what surely must be his vast social and professional
> investment network.
>
> The current bearish chatter reminds me of the 1999-2000 bullish chatter.
> The same bluster, the overwhelming proclamations of certainty, the
> same main thread of "things are different", the same main street/retail
> group think, and the parallels to clinging to a few themes that if
> repeated enough will most certainly come to fruition.
>
> If you are wildly bearish, you have good reason to be and all the
> ammunition you need. The arguments are clear, concise, and logical.
> When things are that clear as the bear case is now, my warning lights
> go off. Sorry bears, but the "walk over and pick money up in the
> corner" has already been made. If you didn't profit wildly from
> last summer to March, you are a salmon swimming upstream.
>
> I am not wildly bullish, but if you haven't flipped the trading switch
> in your brain to at least allow the possibility of further gains,
> you are not doing your job as a trader or an investor.

Why Comments Matter

Comments are what makes post interesting to read.

More Thoughts on Doubling Down

Great article. Changing direction of a company heading the wrong direction but with potential is very hard and takes time. But what's inevitable should be immediate.

Paying for News: Let's Get On with It

The last generation that would pay for news are the retiring baby-boomers. The soon to be ruling Gen X and Y (now ruling the web) are used to get information for free (i.e paying with their attention).

The need for mass-marketing is declining and therefore all these media empires monopoly. The model for print advertising is very ineffective, bombarding everyone with the same message with the hope of 0.01% conversion rates.

Media moguls still believe that they can charge for their content several times over. The only content I'd pay for would be niche, actionable completely ad-free. But that would be killing the advertising models as they would loose me for their target group.


On Aug 07 08:37 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

> I worked in the information industry a long time--not the news business,
> but the information industry: "must-have" information needed by attorneys,
> scientists, banks, doctors, educators, investors, and others who
> could not do their jobs without it. And believe me, they all paid
> big bucks to get it. Ad-free.
>
> The key phrase is "must-have," and I think it applies to this discussion.
> What percentage among all the stuff published as "news" today is
> "must-have" for the reader? I've seen votes above for WSJ, NYT, FT,
> and a couple of others. I suspect that some afficionados of the political
> spinmeisters and "journalists" of Fox, MSNBC, etc. would be willing
> to pay for their daily fix, but not most. Would you pay for Seeking
> Alpha? Probably not. S&P? Maybe a little. CNBC? Maybe. Bill O'Reilly?
> Some would. American Idol? Lots of people would. NFL telecasts? Probably,
> assuming you could not get them free somewhere else. Rush Limbaugh?
> Some dittoheads would pay. It all depends on whether you "must have"
> it or not.
>
> The traditional news model--ad-based, supplemented by subcription
> fees--is dead or dying. The "must-have" content--the news and many
> of the opinions--is available for free in too many places. The biggest
> former source of revenue--want ads--are free now. Let the experiments
> begin, but my prediction is that only those sites with the most absolutely
> unique and magnetic content will be able to charge for it. And those
> are very few indeed.

Goldman's Macro-Bulls Out in Full Force

Very funny.

Looks like we are failing the key levels this morning but the day is far from over. WE are still in a very tight trading range so either we break out today or Monday or we fail with a 5% pullback.

The market is overbought but I would not be surprised if we headed higher after all this pumping and *good news*. Eventually, the markets will plummet.


On Aug 07 07:58 AM Harry Tuttle wrote:

> Abby Cohen actually retired in the 90's. They guys at GS just kept
> a tape of her saying she sees 20% upside on the S&P and they
> play it over and over.

AT&T: The (Apple) Brand Destroyer

Great article.

The way to surpass AT&T w/o jail-breaking is to get a MiFi device (via Verizon). This could work both as a home and a mobile WiFi router.