vboring

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    • Fri Jan 25th 16:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Mortgaging Its Future for Sovereign Fund Investments
      if i had a pile of depreciating USD, i'd be looking for ways to spend it too.
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    • Fri Jan 25th 16:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Have Bank Stocks Hit Bottom?
      down is the only way financials will go for a while. high LTV homeowners are abandoning their investments in increasing numbers because the stigma of foreclosure is gone.

      it is being replaced with a stigma against sticking with a depreciating asset and a desire to screw the banks.

      and we haven't even seen most of the ARMs reset yet. the problems have barely started and people want to call the bottom.

      you'll know the bottom. it'll be right after a household name bank goes into bankruptcy and another one gets nationalized.
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    • Thu Jan 24th 15:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oh, Chicken Little: World Markets Aren’t Falling Apart
      huge leverage on depreciating assets spells trouble. specifically, deflationary trouble as trillions of dollars disappear from both homeowners minds and banks' spreadsheets.

      maybe the sky isn't falling, but at least one household name bank could.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 17:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      4 Prior Market Crashes
      the argument would be strengthened by showing how similar market movements haven't led to crashes and why the current situation is more like 1987 than 2001.

      I think that excessive debt at every level plus systemically underpriced risk can be expected to lead to a market doing very badly during even a mild recession and rather horribly in the face of large asset depreciation and construction industry implosion, but I can't tell if that is your argument or if you just like charts.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 14:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Panics, Apple Pays
      incidentally, i've been to three malls in the last week and things have been slow in most stores, but the Apple stores have all been standing room only. no exaggeration.

      how will they fare in a deepish recession, i have no idea, but today they are kicking ass and taking names.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 22nd 16:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Pitches in With Pink Nano
      a bit of defense for both the news and the analyst

      as a design company (lets not kid ourselves that AAPL could be considered anything other than a company that designs luxury products that happen to be electronics), a modification to their design is important. AAPL may have judged correctly that some portion of the market found the color choices bland. recognizing and responding to that demand could prove to be a big deal for them.

      as for the author, he included more than a hint of sarcasm in his write-up.

      if pink does matter, then the article is important and presented humorously.

      if pink doesn't matter, the author was using sarcasm to bring some humor to an ugly day at the end of an ugly month. lighten up.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 18th 13:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hewlett-Packard Looks Recession-Proof
      buy b/c it is doing well internationally?

      does anyone really believe that any economy will decouple? the world's economies are more strongly coupled today than ever before. the rest cannot be healthy while one is sick.

      who is going to buy the BMWs, Porsches, Toyotas, and Hyundais, exactly, if not americans? to take one sector as an example.

      greater integration leads to greater stability, but also greater exposure to problems.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 18th 12:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fear Is Palpable. Time To Buy.
      inning 1 just finished. now is a time to wait.

      continually falling house prices represent a contraction of credit.

      much of the economic growth for the last few years was directly from the housing and condo construction industry. these industries have slowed, but are still building faster than demand is increasing, so more jobs will be lost here.

      domestic autos will continue to slide as tighter credit makes them harder to buy and fuel efficiency concerns will make them less desirable.

      this will be a full blown recession, with increased company failures, higher unemployment rates, and truly excellent buying opportunities in the emerging market and renewable energy areas.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 17th 16:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed's Indecisiveness Under Pressure Is Cause for Criticism
      the only questions then, are:

      how long before his credibility wears off?

      is the market's assumption of a .5% cut and 30% chance of a .75% cut realistic or is Ben just fooling us again?
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 17th 16:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed's Indecisiveness Under Pressure Is Cause for Criticism
      "By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even BY CREDIBLY THREATENING TO DO SO, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services." - Ben, November 2002(emphasis mine)

      from:

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      do try to keep up.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 17th 15:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Prices Expected to Bottom in 2010, 21% Off '06 Highs
      the markets are very optimistic.

      in what world does the price of a commodity rise 100% due to speculation while the supply is increasing, then only fall 21% while supply continues to increase.

      the rate of increase of supply is falling, but the supply of houses countrywide is still increasing faster than the demand for them.

      add to this mortgage rates and lending standards that are unlikely to get any lower and other recessionary problems and a 21% fall from peak in nominal prices can only be achieved through major inflation or market manipulation.

      not to mention increasing numbers of high LTV borrowers making the rational decision to walk away from underwater loans.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 17th 15:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dangers of the Amazon(.com)
      Bezos can be as creative as he wants, but that is not how Amazon will increase profits. His creative efforts are a great way to throw money away. He should treat them that way, as hobbies, instead of betting the company on it.

      cut the kindle, the unbox, and whatever his next dumb idea is, and you'll have a successful company.

      the only proactive move he should make is to continue expanding the variety of what you can buy at amazon.com. ebay has a horrific user interface, with many sellers attempting to side-step the whole auction idea by focusing on buy-it-now options. amazon should step in with their superior customer relations and user interface and take over ebay's market.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 16:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Interpret a Stagnant VIX As You Will
      stagnant, yes. but also quite high.

      people are clearly worried, but willing to hold tight to see whether or not the next shoe drops.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 16:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Office Depot: Super Cheap or Mistake?
      the biggest home office equipment buyers are RE agents. due to low RE transactions recently, RE agents are feeling poor. a housing-led recession will make RE agents and companies whose primary customers are RE agents suffer.
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    • Mon Jan 14th 17:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jatropha Being Developed as a New Biodiesel Source
      this is a boring story until it includes economic analysis of harvesting and processing costs and the risks of movement towards an electric transportation scheme using a mix of renewable electric energy sources.

      essentially, why would i grow trees, harvest and process the nuts, transport the oil across the country, just to burn it in an inefficient internal combustion engine?

      wouldn't it make more sense to increase the production of renewable energy nationwide and use this to charge batteries or fuel cells or ultracapacitors or who-knows-what?
      View article »
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