vboring

Why Yesterday's Optimism Wasn't Warranted

otoh,

people are tired of negative nominal returns from managed treasury accounts, don't trust or understand commodities, and won't put more money into real estate right now.

if every other investment option is worse, the stock market is comparatively attractive.

Why Yesterday's Optimism Wasn't Warranted

don't trust market optimism.

if loan performance is worsening worldwide, only about 25% of the estimated losses have been written down (292B out of 1.2T), and industry is slumping (auto sales down more than 15% yoy), how do markets go up?

how does any of this represent a bottom?

Have Bank Stocks Hit Bottom?

down is the only way financials will go for a while. high LTV homeowners are abandoning their investments in increasing numbers because the stigma of foreclosure is gone.

it is being replaced with a stigma against sticking with a depreciating asset and a desire to screw the banks.

and we haven't even seen most of the ARMs reset yet. the problems have barely started and people want to call the bottom.

you'll know the bottom. it'll be right after a household name bank goes into bankruptcy and another one gets nationalized.