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der kampfer

der kampfer
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  • Capstone Turbine Announces Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2015 Operating Results [View article]
    Smoke and mirrors...

    When are they "predicting" profitability nowadays? Feel sorry for investors who have been over-promised by Jaimson and under-delivered to ... for years.

    Stay away folks. Sorry to be the voice of reality for those who had hope in this story.
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turns In Miserable Quarter [View article]
    Crunching -

    I'm well aware P/E ratios are not the sole determinant of a stock value. Also, that the forward P/E is a more valuable metric than the "ttm" P/E. That said, to say stock value is "rarely" based on P/E is complete nonsense.

    Further dilution is coming ... does this help them or hurt them achieve higher EPS? Clearly you're missing my point

    Someone once said that winning an internet blog argument is futile. Therefore I tap out and suggest you put your money where your mouth is and invest in CPST. You may get the occasional trade out of it, but it's a junk long term hold stock (and company if Jamison is at the helm). Your money could work a lot better for you elsewhere.

    And that's what SA readers really care about ... investing in a stock that makes them money.

    Can Jamison and you might perk my interest in CPST. Until then you're wasting your time ...
    Nov 10, 2014. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turns In Miserable Quarter [View article]
    Crunching Numbers -

    Share price of a stock (the thing your readers really care about) is historically based on a P/E ratio. Sure there are anomalies like AMZN and NFLX (and many others) but generally speaking if an investor is attempting to place a fair market value on a stock price, it's related to (among other things) a P/E ratio.

    My point about further dilution is that as share count increases (because it will at this company's current operating trajectory) PROFITABILITY in terms of EPS diminishes. If EPS diminishes, then fair market value of the stock price diminishes.

    This correlation between dilution and decreased EPS is irrefutable.
    Nov 10, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turns In Miserable Quarter [View article]
    Caroline - They've been talking breakeven to profitability for several years now. Empty promises year after year ... and based on the results of the latest quarter, they're moving in the wrong direction. (I've been in and out of CPST since 2008 and have been one of the blind "hopeful")

    Diminishing backlog, continued cash burn, huge management bonuses rewarding negative earnings ... all point to future dilution to raise operating capital. Future dilution equals more shares which equals a longer and longer horizon to profitability. Considerably.

    Even if they DO (eventually) turn a profit ... say +$.01 at some point ... what would be a reasonable SP for a company that posts +$.01 per Q? Even more important a question is ... given the high share count, how much income would they need to post a +.$02 or +$.03 EPS profit? The answer is ... it won't be possible anytime soon.

    Best invest your money elsewhere.

    Jamison is an incompetent CEO ... and a flat-out liar with regard to claims of profitability. Let's call it for what it is.
    Nov 9, 2014. 11:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turns In Miserable Quarter [View article]
    Hope is not an investment strategy.
    Nov 7, 2014. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Capstone Turns In Miserable Quarter [View article]
    Jamison has proven to be an incompetent business leader quarter after quarter, year after year. How can you take a good technology and product, have substantial order backlog, and still not turn a profit ... in a healthy economy? Lose Jamison and CPST might have a chance.

    You're a fool to invest your money in CPST.

    Newcomers with fresh powder beware ...
    Nov 7, 2014. 12:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Ethanol: How A P/E Of 169 Can Be A Solid Buy [View article]
    Hey George. Any thoughts on the recent dip? RSI now in the 30s. Overreaction to Brazil (excuse) MMs/shorts moving it lower to soon flip position? Dip in ethanol hurt short term daily margins but long term stable. Buying opp? Forward P/E of only 7? Wow. You have any intel to share? Thanks in advance. DK
    Sep 17, 2014. 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Ethanol: How A P/E Of 169 Can Be A Solid Buy [View article]
    George. Great article. One of the most thorough if not most thorough I've seen. So thank you for putting the time into it. Maps and graphs were very helpful as well.

    I too agree with the comments your dilution model is unnecessarily aggressive and yes, with the additional 5% ownership announcement today would be very interested in seeing your re-run price target model.

    My guess for a one year price target is $42, with a lot depending on Q3. I believe we'll see Q3 EPS in the low $1 range, which when annualized to a forward P/E of 10 (reasonable for a low/no debt company) puts us in the low $40s. A blowout Q3 and this thing could really run. FVAs seem to be the piece which remains unclear, although as you rightly pointed out there are few warrants outstanding, comparatively. Once FVAs are a thing of the past ... the glass ceiling will be removed.

    Again, looking forward to your follow-up.

    Good luck all traders and longs

    Sep 2, 2014. 11:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone: Low Risk, High Reward [View article]
    Here we are a week later after even MORE PR about big orders and what has the share price done?

    Investors have wised-up to the facts about CPST management and their inability to run a profitable business.

    Be weary new investors. The lesson I've learned after 6 years of owning this stock is you can make money by trading it. Simply being long will get you nowhere.

    Want to see the share price rise? Remove Jamison. Guaranteed. He's made empty promises to investors year after year after year.

    As a side, to new investors, given the massive share count what type of positive Q earnings would be required to report even a +$.02 EPS? (Which by the way is fair P/E for current SP).

    Good luck all
    Aug 30, 2014. 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone: Low Risk, High Reward [View article]
    And by glazing over the subject of poor management, you've completely missed the mark in this article.

    Here we are, two days later after more and even more PR of "big orders! wahoo! we're a rockin' company!" and what has the stock price done?


    up $.01

    Why? because investors know better that regardless of a good product, current management does NOT KNOW HOW TO RUN A PROFITABLE BUSINESS (during an economic recovery no less). This company's business model is stuck.

    Want to see the stock price soar? Announce Jamison's resignation.

    Plain and simple
    Aug 22, 2014. 06:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstone: Low Risk, High Reward [View article]
    Umm. Paul. What?

    My first position in CPST was end of 2008 (eight years ago) at $1.32. Where did we close today?

    Since 2008 this stock has done nothing but move on occasion in a range-bound manner. Until Jamison can actually make good on his CC promises of "profitability!" which he started preaching "next year we will be profitable! ..." FOUR or FIVE years ago. This stock is going NOWHERE.

    Case and point last Q, the most recent. ANOTHER loss! How? Increasing backlog, decent sales and NO NET PROFIT. What? It's the same broken record quarter after quarter after quarter. Bad management cannot manufacture and sell a good product in a profitable way. They've proven that year after year after year.

    Empty promises.

    Your article title reads with as empty a promise. CPST management is simply incompetent.

    There's NO reward here. You're barking up the wrong tree.
    Aug 20, 2014. 04:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Surprise On Deck For Pacific Ethanol? [View article]
    Eric. Thanks for putting together the article, although the timing seems off by releasing such an article after earnings were released.

    Regardless, my only point to make is your $1.50 EPS was flawed most notably because of the shares outstanding. How many shares were outstanding when calculating Q1 EPS? Then compare that to shares outstanding when calculating Q2 EPS.

    Here in lies the answer to your miscalculation.

    Going forward, Q3 should be even better as Q3 margin environment has improved compared to Q2. Question to not overlook when writing about Q3 expected EPS is shares outstanding at end of Q3.

    Good luck
    Jul 31, 2014. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Solid Reasons To Buy AMD After The Crash [View article]
    Geez. Another pumping SA article. Go figure.

    (Yawn) . . . . .
    Jul 21, 2014. 01:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Restructuring Initiatives Translate Into Strong Growth In 1H 2014 [View article]

    Appreciate the investment advice. Unfortunately I'm not an options guy, or someone that shorts a stock.

    Yes, you can make 40% a year on just about any investment if you play the market properly. Some stocks are easier to "predict" than others. You can also lose your shirt if you're caught on the wrong side of an options trade or squeezed out of a short position.

    As for me I (try to) invest based on fundamentals, growth potential and don't rely on a stock price dropping for personal gain. Again, not an options player nor a short.

    That said I'm looking more for companies that are well run, with a strong CEO in an industry with improving fundamentals. Started building a position in GPRE in the high 4s and now at more than 12K shares am pleased to hold indefinitely, until something fundamentally changes.

    Such is not the case with AMD. While they exist in a growth industry, they can't seem to get their act together and don't believe they have (which their stock price reflects) and calling SA out (and all the other "believers" on their unwarranted positive articles and positive hype. Because it's just that. Hype. Not truth. The market knows it too.

    Simply a disappointment for my investment style and goals. But glad AMD works for you.

    But good luck to you and happy options trading. Seriously. I know big money can be made if you play your options cards right.
    Jul 18, 2014. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Restructuring Initiatives Translate Into Strong Growth In 1H 2014 [View article]
    It's unbelievable SA still continues to roll-out the seemingly endless positive articles about this company. Seriously guys?

    As an investment, AMD has been simply horrible, and hovering at $4 forever. After a quarter like that and lame Q3 guidance, this stock price is going NOWHERE. Nowhere.

    Seems to me sound investment advise would be based on identifying a company that's growing and then investing in it. There are many to choose from. But let's be realistic. AMD is not one of them.

    Heck, buy AAPL if you want growth (albeit conservative). The IBM deal will pay-off in spades . . .

    And for those thinking I'm just being a "Debbie downer" without skin in the game, ... not true. I AM a common stock shareholder. It's not much at 4K shares, but doesn't detract from the fact that AMD is a disappointment, and waste of investment dollar potential.

    SA, please stop releasing endless positive articles about AMD. It's a waste of everyone's time reading them . . .
    Jul 18, 2014. 06:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment