Sell Into the Financials Rally - Morgan Stanley [View article]
No, CNBC is the ultimate contrarian indicator. The Morgan Stanley analysts, along with Warren Buffett have this one right.
In 5 years, bank and Ibank earnings will be nothing like their earnings up until mid 2007. If we look 5 years down the line, they might be slightly undervalued at todays levels, but 1 year down the line, they're overvalued. That's what Morgan Stanley is saying. I commend them for recognizing that the bottom has not been seen yet. Everyone else is just pumping.
If you're honestly looking 5 years out, you are truly a wise investor. However, I think there are better plays out there for long-term investment. For example, agriculture, like ADM, and established biotechs like Genzyme, Novartis, etc...
Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up? [View article]
Financials are in for some trouble. This is a case of "blood in the streets", yes, but not enough blood has been spilled. Expect a 20% haircut on current bank valuations before I'm willing to get in.
Libor Jump Means More Pain for Financials [View article]
I'm with ya Walt. They are on life support from the Fed and preferred offerings. Earnings will decline dramatically and eventually the market will value these companies much lower.
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
I never said people are stopping clicking. I said that competition is heating up and the money made with AdSense is pathetic. This is what I'm seeing: biz.yahoo.com/ap/08041...
I just moved 1/4 of my advertisements to a different ad network, from Google. I maintain that Google will face increased pressure and is too richly valued at $510 (or even $450). My opinion, but then again I often disagree with Wall Street.
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
Global, as I've said many times now, I have no stake in Google, short or otherwise. Seeking Alpha is a place where people share their views, deal with it.
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
Degu,
I also rely on adsense. I understand that many individuals and businesses rely on adsense. What I'm seeing, though, is an exodus to other advertising venues. Time will prove me right.
As for reducing false positives - I know they're succeeding at doing that, but that certainly isn't the only reason behind their reduced paid clicks. Something like 28% growth in Q4, now we just learned it's 2% growth in Q1 08? That's horrendous. And it's not just the reduction in false positives.
I don't have any vested interest in Google. I call it like I see it, and we will see what happens.
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
Misterdan, my company is not taking advertising away from Google. I do not compete with them at all. In fact, I use their service. That's my point. The ad revenue generated from AdSense is pathetic and many other options exist for generating better advertising revenue.
Freakyguy666, online marketing technology is a rapidly growing space with many competitors lining up to take a piece of the pie. Many many options are available to website owners (such as me) and Google is rapidly becoming a second choice play. Furthermore, a forward P/E means nothing, as does the 30% growth rate. Both of those are guesses, and analysts themselves say that it's nearly impossible to know what Google will report. Basing advice on that is not a good bet.
Globalmacro, while its true the market is pricing in a tough quarter, I'm simply saying I think it will be worse than expected, hence worse than what is priced in.
I am merely stating my observations, both as a Google customer and as a value investor. Take it with a grain of salt and do your own DD.
35 Stocks That Ben Graham Would Like Here [View article]
User 164820 - I agree 100% and that's why this isn't a list of buys, rather a list of companies to research further. Perhaps I'll try to add EPS accuracy to the screener.
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Beware the Financials Value Trap [View article]
Sell Into the Financials Rally - Morgan Stanley [View article]
In 5 years, bank and Ibank earnings will be nothing like their earnings up until mid 2007. If we look 5 years down the line, they might be slightly undervalued at todays levels, but 1 year down the line, they're overvalued. That's what Morgan Stanley is saying. I commend them for recognizing that the bottom has not been seen yet. Everyone else is just pumping.
If you're honestly looking 5 years out, you are truly a wise investor. However, I think there are better plays out there for long-term investment. For example, agriculture, like ADM, and established biotechs like Genzyme, Novartis, etc...
Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up? [View article]
Rail Carrier Trinity Appears Undervalued [View article]
Libor Jump Means More Pain for Financials [View article]
Libor Jump Means More Pain for Financials [View article]
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
I just moved 1/4 of my advertisements to a different ad network, from Google. I maintain that Google will face increased pressure and is too richly valued at $510 (or even $450). My opinion, but then again I often disagree with Wall Street.
Degu, congrats on the $100k.
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
I also rely on adsense. I understand that many individuals and businesses rely on adsense. What I'm seeing, though, is an exodus to other advertising venues. Time will prove me right.
As for reducing false positives - I know they're succeeding at doing that, but that certainly isn't the only reason behind their reduced paid clicks. Something like 28% growth in Q4, now we just learned it's 2% growth in Q1 08? That's horrendous. And it's not just the reduction in false positives.
I don't have any vested interest in Google. I call it like I see it, and we will see what happens.
Good luck to everyone.
Earnings Preview: Will Google Perform? [View article]
Freakyguy666, online marketing technology is a rapidly growing space with many competitors lining up to take a piece of the pie. Many many options are available to website owners (such as me) and Google is rapidly becoming a second choice play. Furthermore, a forward P/E means nothing, as does the 30% growth rate. Both of those are guesses, and analysts themselves say that it's nearly impossible to know what Google will report. Basing advice on that is not a good bet.
Globalmacro, while its true the market is pricing in a tough quarter, I'm simply saying I think it will be worse than expected, hence worse than what is priced in.
I am merely stating my observations, both as a Google customer and as a value investor. Take it with a grain of salt and do your own DD.
35 Stocks That Ben Graham Would Like Here [View article]
Thanks for the feedback!
Ryan
35 Stocks That Ben Graham Would Like Here [View article]