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northstatebiker@yahoo.com

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  • Major Stock Market Selloff Looms As The Fed's QE3 Ends [View article]
    I have over 25 years of self-service Investment experience. In that time, I have witnessed and read so many articles that "call a top" that they are too numerous to share here.

    I do think that the Author did a good job here. I am not sure what to believe, but he covered the bases for what chemistry is needed to see a topple-over.

    I also know that we will KNOW when it has ended ONLY with price action. Nothing else matters. I use Fib theory and other TA methods and what we saw on Friday, the pop right back into the "break level" in the SPX and ES - - but the current short pattern is NOT broken UNTIL it is broken - - tells me that the PPT came in to support this market yet again. Beyond QE, what the FED will do is to sweep up every short-sold contract that they can to lift-off the ES from what might appear to be a fatal blow to the longs.

    With that, SA members can join my group which concentrates on TA setups and my particular take on the markets, but there are requirements.

    I also have to add that I AM TOTALLY rotated out of equities and simply ride the waves with the use of Options ONLY and on the SPX and IWM. The Russell is already selling off and many folks think that this fact alone signals a potential CORRECTION. Again, I think that this author did a great job in defining what a correction is and he is spot on. WE ARE SIMPLY in another pullback, until we are not: either we continue a sell off FROM resistance, OR, we break these rather shallow shorts and continue to new higher highs.

    My MONEY MANAGEMENT skills tell me that if you are UP, then take off your principle PLUS 10-20% of your upside and leave "free money" behind SHOULD we see price action take us to the 2030 to 2040 SPX levels....that range is our next upside WALL!

    dpotrv@gmail.com should you be interested.

    DJ
    Sep 28, 2014. 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Optimum Asset Allocation To Gold Is Always Zero [View article]
    This is a great article. I also disagree with the underlying assumption and one that has driven my investments pretty much for the past 20 years, since the Dot-Com cycle lows: NEVER_EVER_EVER buy and hold...and NEVER_EVER_BUY at highs.

    The market ebbs and flows. Buy on ebbs, and sell on flow highs.

    One way to accomplish this with Gold would be to sell well OTM, long-dated NAKED puts on the GLD, and use leaps to do it if they are somewhat valuable...find valuable puts, in other words, and take assignment at projected cycle lows.

    THEN: sell well OTM, or ATM, or ITM calls.....depends on your strategy.

    Take GOOG for example: buy the IPO. Sell OTM rolling 60-day covered calls at projected cycle highs until you unwind your position.

    Same with GOLD. NEVER_EVER_EVER buy and hold and NEVER_EVER_EVER buy at cycle highs and you will be a multi-million Man or Woman in a short 20 years as I am -- no brag, just fact.

    Use FIB trading and take ambush trades and you will be make more money than you ever dreamed of and that is simply just fact. Find cycle lows on Monthly charts and you cannot GO WRONG, in no way possible.

    So, GOLD is never ever ever a buy and hold and this article illustrates this fundamental reasoning flaw.

    Otherwise, I simply loved it.
    May 27, 2013. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Inflation Never Came [View article]
    The article is well written, and actually DOES explain why we think inflation SHOULD have come (but, let's remember the context) and actually did not. Inflation must be put in the context of the time span involved.

    If we measure inflation in the context of 40 years (even 50) but let's stick with what actual items DID cost us, in relation to real income, then us folks in the non-economic-theorist's world would say that INDEED inflation is rampant. I recall going to college, and in coordination with $1100 quarterly loans and a minimum-wage job, I was able to drive, pay rent, and eat. And even afford a six-pack (69 cents for Lucky Lager).

    In the meantime, rents have increased dramatically, tuition is beyond imagination, and eating and fuel costs, plus mandatory Auto Insurance makes for a minimum wage job plus loans incomplete in their intent to break-even with costs.

    Finally, the Velocity of Money is the real issue here.
    May 27, 2013. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was The Crash, Dummy [View article]
    The cash can be invested in bonds. So, your 50% cash and 50% invested would work better. Now, take one more position and that is: sell covered calls on all holdings on a pop into resistance. Better returns, now best returns.

    Just an Idea.
    May 26, 2013. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's: Full Potential Has Not Yet Recognized By The Markets [View article]
    I just met an employee of Macy's and she loves her company. She is aware of the cost cutting but apparently they are very well run from an employee perspective. She has been with them over 20 years and is well treated, and they have focused their employees on costs.
    May 26, 2013. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up Bollinger Band Alerts In Thinkorswim [View instapost]
    I use alerts in conjunction with Fib trading, which I learned from an expert, and which, if used as instructed, offer powerful support and resistance levels.

    I draw up longer-term Fibs (based upon Daily setups or even monthly setups) and trade SPX strangles, weeklies, using price alerts.

    I can walk away and just depend on TOS alerts to send me emails...open up the trader app in my Smart phone and execute a put write or call write and I am off to the races.

    My portfolio is up over $50K this year alone and I have not had ONE break of a setup due to the incredible accuracy of Fib trading.

    Don
    May 26, 2013. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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