rodcore

Oil Breaking $100 a Barrel - But Why?

Although you think you're conclusion is smart because of how convaluted it is. It's wrong because its circular. So I will give you something even more convaluted to ponder. Even if your thesis is correct and the economy is not in such bad shape... a few more months of All time high food prices + All time high energy prices + all time high personal debt will invariably trigger a true recession in the United States and will lower the price of oil. Sometimes the market gets it wrong. I got it wrong for most of 2007. Its wrong right here too.

The Bear Market is Here

I think you're absolutely right - I have had similar performance this year. Felt horrible for underperforming the market up until now because I was overly hedged. In three weeks I went from 3% to 14% on the year. This correction was inevitable, it should have happened sooner. Any rally is a good reason to continue building the short position. Gold is to be sold although I do agree partly with it being a proxy for liquidity.