Andrew Ling

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151 Comments

    • Wed Dec 5th 19:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar, Sunpower Likely to Be Added to the Nasdaq 100 This Month
      Part of the reason the analysts are always behind is because their numbers use current data to extrapolate future earnings. For example they should've known there would be new plants coming online by 2009 and figured those into 09 earnings long before the official announcements. In terms of the "valuation" of the stock most people understand some of FSLR's advantages but few understand them all. In order to truly appreciate the business you have to understand them all. The throughput improvement was one that was overlooked all the way up until the most recent earnings. I remember a few months ago someone in the message boards insisting that FSLR's accounting was fraudulent because they were already producing more than their nameplate ratings. He had no clue about the throughput improvements and conservative ratings.
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    • Wed Dec 5th 14:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar, Sunpower Likely to Be Added to the Nasdaq 100 This Month
      Yes the throughput increase was about the best news I can imagine. Still, it was old news and already priced in. All in all I think the stock is more attractive at these levels than before the earnings announcement. Much like I said that FSLR was a better value after their first earnings report at $45 than before at $33. That first earnings report basically put the company a year ahead of schedule. This latest earnings report puts them another year ahead of an already accelerated schedule. Remember FSLR upon IPO was not expected to turn a profit until 2008.
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    • Wed Dec 5th 01:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar's $1/Watt Capex: Half the Industry Average
      Yes, any time your comment concludes with the statement "no joking" you know you have problems. Of course he could should be ending every sentence with that.
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    • Tue Dec 4th 16:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Needs to Hoard Tellurium to Sustain its Current Growth
      Well put Skywalker. It also has the right size to become a 100 bagger. Although a little large when, when I first bought shares it was a $2.5 Billion company. This is the optimal size for companies that are more than just complete speculation. I avoid micro caps like the plague. I knew it had the potential to reach 25, 50, or even 100 billion within 10 years. Who would've guessed it would happen so quickly.
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    • Tue Dec 4th 10:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Will Top Estimates Due to Favorable Exchange Rate
      Many but not all of their costs are in dollars. Being headquartered in the US much of their employee compensation is in dollars. Also much of the equipment and raw materials expenses are in dollars. The profit margin probably will indeed shrink in the short run before expanding against, since last quarter already met long term operating margin goals way ahead of schedule. Shrinking margins is part of the plan for increasing earnings. You would know that if you listened to the investor's day conference. By slightly shrinking margins into the future they plan on dramatically increasing demand.

      Anytime a company in hypergrowth has such enormous margins whether it be Ebay in the 90s or Google today it's only natural for them to increase costs and thereby increase earnings. Ebay, which used to have an amazing 90% profit margin (servers are cheap) but miniscule profits did it through hiring personel and the acquisition of Paypal and Skype.

      An analogy I like to use would be if you have a basketball player shooting 60% from the field, you should give him the ball more and let him score more often.
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    • Tue Dec 4th 10:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Needs to Hoard Tellurium to Sustain its Current Growth
      Hoarding may not be a bad idea in order to mitigate risk, just as the US "hoards" oil for the strategic petroleum reserve. Even if they were to drive up the price of tellurium that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing either as it would encourage copper refiners get their act together and to produce more. If they aren't hoarding already they must not be too concerned about future shortages.
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    • Tue Dec 4th 04:44 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Needs to Hoard Tellurium to Sustain its Current Growth
      Additionally, I found on wikipedia that 1 ton of tellurium can be extracted from each 500 tons of copper. With annual copper production at 20 million tons, this leads to 40000 tons of tellurium which is recoverable. The reason that world production is only at 1% of these levels is because of inadequate historic demand. When there is a need, copper producers will jump on board. Since tellurium is only 1% of FSLR's costs, there can easily absorb any price increases.
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    • Tue Dec 4th 04:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Needs to Hoard Tellurium to Sustain its Current Growth
      Scott, much better balanced and reasoned analysis than Mark. I guess you arent the same guy afterall. Most people including even me, don't think the current 152% growth rate is sustainable. There will be new problems such as limitations from suppliers for the construction process. This is probably why FSLR has chose to complete one Malaysian plant per quarter. This gives their equipment supplier time to supply a steady flow. I see by the fact that unlike, Mark, you realize that if tellurium supply ever does become a problem, it will have meant that FSLR has grown tremendously and is probably trading over $1000.

      Mark, quit spamming both seeking alpha and yahoo message boards with the same post over and over.
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    • Tue Dec 4th 00:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar's Momentum Is Seemingly Gone
      The funny is he wrote the article precisely when it was regaining it's momentum after it's only down month in history, August. For a long's point of view read my articles at

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      and

      seekingalpha.com/artic...
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    • Tue Dec 4th 00:49 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Taking a Bath Shorting First Solar, Inc.
      I went long 3000 shares almost the exact time you went short back in Feb, the day before the first earnings report. I'm up to 9000 shares now with a 530% YTD return on my portfolio which includes STP, SPWR and has included FXI, CCJ, and ZOLT in the past. I went long partly due to technical reasons because it closed at an all time high the day before earnings. Anyway, are you still short? Quit being so stubborn and cover your position!
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    • Tue Dec 4th 00:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Suntech Power Should Benefit From Kevin Rudd’s Victory Down Under
      Himanshu, are you still short FSLR? I can't believe anyone that realizes the potential of solar who is long STP would be short FSLR. Personally I'm long all three FSLR, STP, and SPWR with my largest position being FSLR. I figure I can't afford to miss out on any one of the three if they turn out to be the market leader 10 years down the road.

      Check out my article

      seekingalpha.com/artic...
      View article »
    • Tue Dec 4th 00:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impact of High-Priced Oil on Solar Manufacturers
      Lou, although I disagree that high oil prices will do more to harm than help companies like STP and SPWR since they production costs are only about 20% energy. Remember, FSLR has a 6 month return on investment resulting in about 5% of it's costs from energy. In other words if oil and other energy costs double FSLR's costs will go up 5% but the value of their product would double. In theory their profit margin would go from 20% to 60%. This is what I mean when I say they are the most highly leveraged to benefit.
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    • Sun Dec 2nd 16:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar's Rapidly Expanding Economies of Scale
      BTW, "Mark Anthony" known as ii2000426 on the Yahoo message boards had repeatedly made up facts, accused FSLR management of lying, and called for SEC investigations. I wouldn't take what he has to say seriously. Nobody in the yahoo boards does anymore.
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    • Sun Dec 2nd 16:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar's Rapidly Expanding Economies of Scale
      George, I'm aware of all these competing CIGS technologies. They were the main reason I was hesitant to buy FSLR back when it was $33. At the time many analysts were saying to wait and see who the winner will be. Well, they aren't saying that anymore as it's pretty obvious FSLR will be one of if not the sole winner. Even if some CIGS company manages to reach an economy of scale in which they can compete with FSLR in price, it'll probably be about 5 years down the road since none of them presently have the experience or the billions in cash necessary presently. By then FSLR will probably be trading much higher, and you'll have plenty of opportunities to sell.

      "Mark Anthony's" points are also irrelevant and there is more than enough tellurium for the foreseeable future. Once again the only supply risk would be 5-10 years down the road if FSLR continues it's pace of hypergrowth upon which the stock will be trading much higher.

      As for SPWR's high efficiency panels, this may come into play 10 to 15 down the road when PV becomes so cheap that people will want to maximize the amount of electricity they can generate. As of now it's negligible since few people even fully cover usable rooftop space.

      FSLR is well positioned for the next 3 years and the industry is well positioned for the next 40. If a better opportunity presents itself within the industry, such as a nanosolar IPO for example, there will be plenty of time to rotate out.
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    • Sun Dec 2nd 05:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Reality Check: First Solar and Tellurium
      "Scott Roberts" is likely just another account that "Mark Anthony" has. In the Yahoo message boards he uses his numerous accounts to reply to his own messages. The fact each post under different names use the same false facts proves that any time you hear mention of "Tellurium shortage" it's probably the same guy.
      View article »
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