Andrew Ling

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151 Comments

    • Fri May 9th 07:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together
      dicki, I saw a survey about a year ago where about 80% of Germans were willing to pay extra for their electricity if it were to come from renewables. I don't recall how much extra but it was probably about 50%. When faced with the same survey only about 10% of Americans were willing to pay extra.

      This illustrates why with the exception of China the US is the most fossil fuel dependent industrialized nation. You would think that some action would be taken with oil at $125. Although energy prices don't have a direct influence on the value of PV due to a subsidized market, they should theoretically force politicians to take action. Also, when prices reach "grid parity" the correlation will be direct.
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    • Thu May 8th 03:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together
      Check out my article about why oil is likely to goto $400, written when oil was $60, and how FSLR is my peak oil play. An electric car manufacturer or a company with new lithium-ion technology would be better, but I'm still waiting for a Tesla Motors IPO.

      seekingalpha.com/artic...
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    • Thu May 8th 02:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together
      Gumby, I don't expect oil prices to go down until they're so high that many people can't afford to drive. We're still far from those levels. As long as China's economy continues to grow and they continue to subsidize gas prices oil will keep going up.

      I didn't realize until last quarter's earnings when margins shrank how high energy prices actually squeeze margins for the short term since sales contracts are at fixed prices but manufacturing costs are variable. This could potentially hit the silicon PV manufacturers hard as they use much more energy in their manufacturing process. In the long term, however, higher energy prices is obviously a positive for solar since it makes PV a better value. Today, that may take the form of new government subsidies as a political response to high energy prices. In the future it will mean we're closer to grid parity.
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    • Sun May 4th 23:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      You must be certain you'll make 1000000% shorting fslr from $300 to $3. That must be why you have 0 short position right now. I'm also certain the world will end tomorrow but I won't let that get in the way of my trip to Europe at the end of the month.
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    • Sun May 4th 00:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      BTW even the best case scenario dont from $300 to $3 would not yield 10000%. I would know since I've rode FSLR up fully margined from $33. price volatility either shakes you out of a fully margined position or forces you hold a position less than fully margined. In theory I should be up about 3000% on FSLR but reality is quite different. Your 10000% goal on the short side would equivalent to a 1000000% goal on the upside from $3 to $300.
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    • Sun May 4th 00:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      No one in history has ever made 10000% on a short position, Mark. The odds of the earth being disintigrated by a huge asteroid tomorrow are much greater.
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    • Sat May 3rd 03:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      I can't believe you short fslr without even knowing you can't make more than the amount you put up in a short position, Mark. In order to make 10000% the stock would have to go down to $-30000 lol
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    • Sat May 3rd 03:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      I thought you were going to short from $120 to 0? If you short now and it goes to 0 will you break even or still be down? Shorting from $300 to $3 does not make you 10000% profit it makes you less than 100%. You can only double your money at best with a single short position.
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    • Sat May 3rd 02:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova
      Yes it's in Chinese so I can't see a chart. BTW the charts may be nowhere near what FSLR is paying for their tellurium as the are spot market prices. When uranium shot up to $130 the average contract price was still about 1/3 that. Since the price of te tripled but VNP's margins only increased slightly they are obviously not passing much of the increase onto FSLR. That can be viewed as a positive if you feel there will be greater price increases passed onto FSLR in the future or it can be a negative if you feel they are unable to pass the price increases on.
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    • Fri May 2nd 23:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      User 187658, why trade so often if you have limited success? 99% of investors should buy and hold. Very few can overcome the tax disadvantages of trading. I follow the market every day from open to close and still I only trade a small portion of my holdings mainly to reduce risk as I doubt I can outperform longer term trends (I know I can't outperform last year's FSLR).
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    • Fri May 2nd 22:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy
      It just depends on how my wifi access in Europe is. I'll still be trading before each close and I may be on and off all day still since market hours are 1:30-9:30pm GMT.
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    • Fri May 2nd 22:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      User 186965, FSLR offers a 25 year warranty and there is no evidence that the product will underperform after 30 years.
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    • Fri May 2nd 22:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth?
      You're not paying for just growth you're also paying for the proprietary technology. e.g. if First solar doubled their assets and earnings the company would be worth far less than double. If you assume half the value of the company is the tech then the pe would be 50. Of course it's a lot more complicated than that as the value of the tech increases as along with earnings. The tech is worth a lot more today than when I first bought FSLR 15 months ago. The increase in value of the tech offsets the slowing of earnings growth due to economies of scale.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 22:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
      Ever heard the saying those that cant do teach? Those that cant invest become analysts. It always makes me laugh when I see an analyst on t.v. with his five best picks. They rarely own any of them! Speculators practice what they preach salesmen don't. They are just salesmen.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 22:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
      Totally meaningless what the analysts recommend. Once again much like PEs I'm not aware of any study that actually found correlations between analyst ratings and price performance. When oil was $60 most analysts surveyed thought the price would be down this year. Perhaps they were just parroting the big oil official line. After all, big oil wants us to keep buying SUVs and consuming in order to keep their profits flowing.

      Numerous studies have found correlations beween long term growth rates and price performance. When I first bought FSLR I believe there were 0 analysts covering it. Only two resources I know of have a solid track record. Valueline and Investor's Business Daily. Valueline has no rating and IBD has consistently rated it an a+ and the #1 energy stock out of 85. The others are mostly oil companies. Solar stocks rarely crack the top 5.
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