Andrew Ling

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    • Wed Apr 23rd 03:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      According to this article your world production numbers are completely wrong since they are based on the production of only Canada Japan and Peru, which account for 1/6 of total world copper production. Total world production is likely 700-800 tons/year.

      www.resourceinvestor.c...

      Also, production is increase. Just yesterday new tellurium was discovered

      " Mexivada discovers porphyry molybdenum, silver-tellurium, and gold systems at Moly Dome, Nevada; begins tellurium exploration program "
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 22nd 16:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      ITs really very simple. The only reason to give more information than required is to pump the stock. Any additional information can be used against you. Take Nanosolar's case. If they keep blabbing about how great their CIGS tech is, maybe a large player will get into their industry, such as sharp or fslr. When you strike gold you keep you mouth shut.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 22nd 01:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      Judging by how slowly the revenue is climbing it's obvious that you are overestimating VNP's te production at 25 tons a quarter. With Te prices rising according to your chart and the quoted $300/kg price Te would account for about 80% of VNPs revenues. If that were the case you'd see a much greater spike in revenues and profit margins.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 22nd 00:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      Well which one is it? .25 grams per watt is actually 15 grams per panel not 8. Remember the old article about Tellurium shortage by Scott Roberts seemingly the only other person in the world concered about te shortage?

      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      For some reason I tend to trust his annual production estimates of 400 tons/year over yours. He also has te costs at 1 cent per watt or 1% of overall costs.

      BTW FSLR also does not allow any non authorized personel in their plants including media. Does that mean they're murdering people in there? In case you didnt notice FSLR management is the complete opposite of Nanosolar. More average people have probably heard of Nanosolar than FSLR. They don't hype constantly they just deliver. A good strategy considering before you know it they'll have silently dominated the market.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 23:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy
      You're accusing me of manipulating a stock with a market cap of $25B? Minus well accuse me of pumping up the entire US market with my postings. Lemme guess you lost money shorting FSLR. One of my last four articles was a double post indeed. Not sure if that was my mistake or seekingalpha's. The other three are completely different. Did you even read them? One compares FSLR with Sharp and AMAT. Another looks at the long term technicals. The latest is FSLR and SPWR.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 23:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy
      tessant, spwr's strength is not in their costs. The problem for STP is it's not their strength either when faced with FSLR's $1.12/watt product. SPWR can at least find a niche. If women are willing to spend $20K on a handbag surely people will be willing to spend a few thousand extra just for a nice modern looking solar array.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 20:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy
      I've thought about buying FSLR calls right before earnings but decided against it because the premium that you pay for a comparable amount of leverage in spreads is much greater than the cost of margin interest. Also it's difficult to fill the order sizes I would want and options income is short term cap gains. I'm considering intentionally going over my 50% margin requirement the day before earnings into my 25% day trading margin requirement but once again cap gains becomes a problem. If it goes up I'll have a huge tax liability in the highest bracket. If it goes down I could have a huge loss which will be hard to balance out with gains. I'm going to have to run some assumed probabilities to see if the potential gains is worth it. Reminds me of the money management dilemmas I used to face in my poker days.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 19:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      Yup he's not even smart enough to realize he can't cause panic selling in a $25B stock. The more I look into it the more his 8 grams tellurium/panel number looks made up. I seriously doubt he's the only person outside of the company that knows how much Te is consumed.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 18:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy
      BTW, unless you're an experienced swing trader you shouldn't be concerned about the price of the stock. Trying to time the market and therefore having an underinvested position are the biggest mistakes retail investors make. I've told my friends and family members this who have all made money in FSLR but all got in and out. All ended up losing money trying to buy back at a lower price. I have also lost money trying this although I only allocate 10% of my holdings for trading, albeit still a large number of shares.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 18:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar and SunPower: Competitors With Synergy
      Yes I would buy more at these levels if I wasn't already fully margined. Earnings are next Wed and FSLR has gained 30%+ 3 of 4 times upon reporting earnings. If FSLR breaks out above $300 the sky is the limit. If I were to see rampant speculation is this stock I would sell part of my holdings but I have yet to see that. It is still being accumulated in large chunks by institutional investors. With very favorable exchange rates in the 1st quarter expect more of the same.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 17:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      Mark's entire argument hinges on the fact that FSLR consumes 8 grams Te per panel. I have no clue where he obtained this fact from since I have read every word from every official FSLR release and never heard any mention of the amount of Te consumed per panel, per plant, per quarter, or otherwise. I wouldn't be surprised if he just pulled the number out of thin air.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 17:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!
      I understand your point Jack I've done the math myself numerous times. The problem is that the $1.8B coal plan is a one of a kind project. They can surely build "clean coal" plants for less if motivated or forced too. How much does a conventional coal plant cost to build?

      At present time comparing conventional forms of generation with renewables is like apples to oranges. Either the apples (dirty fuels) need to be hindered so people choose oranges or the oranges (renewables) need to turn into apples by competing on cost alone regardless of emissions.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 11:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!
      Governments are going the wrong route in subsidizing solar. The correct way to go is either subsidizing research directly or creating a government backed loan program. People don't want to pay $30K upfront for a PV system. Nor do they want to pay $20K up front with subsidies. Subsidizing research directly would maximize benefit to the public whereas finance subsidies would have a major impact on sales and maximize benefit to investors.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 11:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Zawy good analysis, but why even bother using those old exchange rates? We already know what the exchange rate was for the entire first quarter, $1.55. BTW, it's good news that earnings are being released earlier than expected, in 8 days, only 2 1/2 months after the last earnings. I was worried FSLR might lose some steam after touching 300 for only 1 tick and selling off on low volume. Now I expect a breakthrough above 300 post earnings.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 11:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!
      The problem is you're assuming utilities care whether their energy generation is clean or not. It's unbelievable to me that energy companies besides BP haven't jumped all over technologies like solar. Big oil has the most to benefit from renewables since they get the bonus propaganda boost which the pure plays don't need. It's also the perfect marriage because big oil has nothing to invest in with little oil left to be discovered in the world. The most likely reason is that big oil has an aversion to renewables and an us vs them mentality.
      View article »
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