Andrew Ling

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    • Mon Apr 21st 00:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      messages.finance.yahoo...
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    • Mon Apr 21st 00:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Here is a post I made in Feb 07 predicting 08 earnings of $1.50 when the consensus was 0. So I was also wrong, but the least wrong.

      messages.finance.yahoo...

      I'm looking for the post around the same time where I made a 5 year $400 price target, which also seems too low now. At least I don't have to raise my target every month.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 00:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      BTW, I'm unable to come out with a quarterly estimate because of the season effects of FSLR's contracts. All I know is they'll beat the high estimate due to further strengthening of the euro in the first quarter, and because they always have. I can't recall if the current estimates assume a conversion rate of $1.30/Euro still or whether they finally raised it to $1.45. Either way it makes the estimates a joke. Management commented that last quarter was unusually good due to the exchange rate and not to expect those profit margins in the future. Yet the Euro appreciated even further so margins will also. I just hope they didn't do too much currency hedging.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 00:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Jack, just look at the earnings revision history as proof that estimates are too low. Estimates are constantly revised up but have never been revised down. So if you haven't revised your estimates up in a few months, you're overdue. I would use the high estimate of 63 cents as my basis. I expect them to beat that also. I was amazed that the stock rallied 30% last quarter after earnings since I thought the market would see it coming. I won't make the same mistake this quarter and will be fully margined possibly even going intentionally over into my day trading margin for a day going into earnings. When a stock rallies 30% or more 3 of the 4 quarters it reports you'd think the market would figure it out. These volume blowout earnings days reflect the true direction of FSLR. Much of the rest of the price movement is driven by traders, profit taking, etc. Friday was a good example where FSLR has a terrible day relative to the markets, yet it was on low volume.
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    • Sun Apr 20th 23:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      dicki, why should they ever miss? Some of the best stocks in recent memory have gone 20 years without missing earnings once. I'm not positive but I think Walgreens may fall into this category. Surely it can't be just luck. Analysts are stubborn and don't care if they're wrong every single quarter as long as their analyst peers are equally wrong. Using the car analogy once again Qcells may be the car traveling the fastest currently but that's meaningless as the car with the highest top speed will ultimately overtake them.

      The two arguments against FSLR would that they may be accelerating faster now but their ultimate market size is not that great, or that they will wreck along the way. I have no reason to think either right now. Since you own CSIQ and STP you probably agree that solar is potentially a multi-trillion dollar market. I have instructed my friends to refer to me as the "Solar Baron" in the style of the old Oil Barons if this should occur. $25B market cap is a drop in the bucket.
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    • Sun Apr 20th 23:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      zawy, no way pays attention to the FSLR analysts estimates anymore. Analysts were wondering on the last conference call if they keep getting tricks into making low estimates so FSLR can beat. Management responded by basically stating the estimates are worst case scenario estimates. In other words, they are. I assume any new production coming online and efficiency gains are not figured into the estimates, which is ridiculous.

      Basically the analysts use the most simplistic model. e.g. if you saw a dragster going 125mph half way through the 1/4 mile and calculated finished time either by doubling the current running time or by adding the time it would take at the rate of 125mph you would be ridiculously off as you're forgetting about the acceleration rate. In the same way estimates are static and don't factor in either first or second growth derivatives. When I say to be exactly one step ahead of the curve and no more I mean one derivative ahead. If the market is trading on earnings you have to trade on earnings growth. If they are trading on growth to have to trade on the growth in growth, and so forth. Despite what some dart-throwing index buyers think the market is rather unsophisticated and trades mostly on earnings with less emphasis on growth and even less emphasis on growth ^ 2
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    • Sun Apr 20th 23:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Jack, read my article seekingalpha.com/artic...

      which explains why analysts are constantly way off when it comes to FSLR estimates. The reason there is such a large spread isn't because there widespread disagreement, it's simply due to the fact that some analysts are slow to update their estimates. The newest estimates are the highest and every analyst has been too low every single quarter. When FSLR went from $30 to $100 some analysts still had old price targets at $45. When they updated the target it would instantly shoot to $125. Moral of the story is don't go by analysts estimates. Do the math yourself.
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    • Sat Apr 19th 17:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The State of the Thin-Film Photovoltaic Industry
      Interesting carbon credit are only $24/ton. To put that in perspective a Prius saves about 1 ton/year. For the carbon credit trading system to work they should trade about 10 times higher. What a cutting edge speculative investment!
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    • Sat Apr 19th 17:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The State of the Thin-Film Photovoltaic Industry
      Here are quotes from a large european exchange. Those are the rates you should use for comparison since it accounts for the majority of the solar market. US prices are generally slightly lower than the lowest euro rates

      www.eex.com/en/
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    • Sat Apr 19th 16:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      Mark, where did you get the info stating that FSLR consumes 8 grams tellurium per panel? I was unable to come up with that info anywhere. FSLR's tellurium consumption isn't stated in any of their filings.
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    • Sat Apr 19th 16:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      BTW, I don't just buy continuously without selling. e.g. when I was in Europe last year and FSLR was tanking I had to reduce my margin since I wouldn't be able to follow the stock every minute due to lack of wifi. I also wanted to relax without having to deal with my investments as much. I checked my investments about 1 hour a day instead of 6 1/2 hours a day. So I sold 25% of my position on the way down from $125 at $90 and bought back at $90 when I was back in the States on the way up. I also have preplanned scenarios in which I'd sell even more than 25%, most of them involving better opportunities elsewhere such as in EVs or real estate. I'd like to see Tesla IPO, for example.
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    • Sat Apr 19th 16:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      It's impossible to lose the amount of money I made in three years of poker in a month since they have a limit to how much you can deposit. BTW I don't enjoy gambling at all. My weakness has always been not being aggressive enough. e.g. after 9-11 I wondered how Oil could be only $25. As a subscriber to peak oil theory I figured it was just a matter of time before oil hit it's equilibrium price of $300. I considered buying perhaps 10 contracts. I later decided I shouldn't question the market, and that with 2006 futures trading at the same price as 2001 peak oil theory must be wrong. If I would've only invested a small amount in 2006 oil futures back then I would've had so much more capital to invest in FSLR. Even though I could continue to play today I refuse to play for less than half what I used to make. I haven't played a single hand online since. I only play occasionally in Europe to socialize. Anyway, If FSLR goes to 0 I'll still be a full time investor as I have nearly as much real estate equity.
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    • Fri Apr 18th 19:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      From the annual report "We expect our raw material cost per watt to decrease over the next several years as costs per solar module remain stable and sellable watts per solar module increase."
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    • Fri Apr 18th 19:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      I used to post in the Yahoo message boards but no no lone. The only one with thoughtful posts was the STP boards but that has since been overcome with one line posters also.

      Just to rehash some old calculations done by others a year ago. Annual copper production is 17210000 tons. At 500 ton per 1 pound Te that = 34420 pounds of Te. at 8 grams per panel FSLR can produce about 3 MW per pound Te which already gives an indication of how negligible the costs are. 3 MW retails for over $6 million which one pound of Te according to mark costs about $300.
      Anyway at 3 MW/pound FSLR can produce 103 GW panels/year. So when the stock is trading at 10000 that will be the time to tackle potential Te supply issues.
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    • Fri Apr 18th 19:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      I'm not going to explain to you how poker is a game of skill, Mark. Even most kids know that now. The reason 99% of players lose is because of the rake you have to pay the casino which is usually about $30/hour. In high stakes games such as the 25-50 no limit I used to play at PartyPoker, the rake is a non-issue and about 75% of the players are actually winning players. Basically at the high limits a bunch of pros wait for a "fish" to show up and throw away all their money. Poker is great if you don't have a large amount of capital, but I was already playing the highest stakes online. If you aren't able to utilize your capital it's ends up similar to grinding for an hourly wage. There comes a point when investing becomes more profitable. Also in Oct of 2006 Congress took action to make it difficult to transfer funds into online casinos. The few high stakes games that were already hard to find completely disappeared. I haven't played online since.
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