Andrew Ling

Total Rating:
0 / 0

151 Comments

    • Fri Apr 18th 19:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted
      FSLR didn't respond to you? What a shock. Maybe you should go straight to George W. for a response then? Most companies aren't in the habit of responding to loons unless they have a team of dedicated customer service professionals located in India to do so.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 18:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Considerations on Investing in China
      Duder has some good points. As a Chinese-American I visited Shanghai for the first time last year and talked to some random people for an uncensored view of the country. I saw less homeless than in S.F., and the people were generally content. The vast majority agree with such laws as 1 child per family which has outraged many Americans. Additionally, even my uncle's housekeeper seemed to be more knowledgeable of politics than the average American.

      As soon as I got home I purchased a bunch of FXI. I've since sold it all as I feel alternative energy is a much better investment.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 18:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Today's 52-Week High List: Energy Dominates
      FSLR is not an industrial!
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 18:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      I don't acknowledge him because he is one of the worse spammers from a board full of spammers on "Yahoo message boards." Every one of his points were disproven by various posters last year. I don't recall the specifics but one poster showed how if te prices were to rise tenfold it would still have virtually no effect on FSLR's cost basis. Another showed that production had already risen above the "maximum world output" that he's claimed. He's been rotating ridiculous arguments for over a year now all of which have been soundly disproven. At another point he said Te, being toxic, was going to be banned internationally. At another point he claimed he was about to purchase large amounts of Te as an investment! Perhaps he's like to purchase a few tons of Uranium as well? If he hadn't have so pitifully lost so much money shorting the stock it would be comic. Additionally he uses multiple accounts to reply to, compliment himself, and keep his threads alive.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 12:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      BTW, when you're well in the black tax laws also encourages greater risk taking. You don't want to carry over a heavy loss without an offsetting gain that year. With large gains I can simply match recent losses by selling some earlier purchases. Again, it's another case of taking losses immediately but deferring long term gains indefinitely. Also a margin interest account can be used for your living expenses. Compare that to positive cash flow real estate where the income towards living expenses would be taxed at the highest rate. According to my Turbotax calculations real estate expenses are not deductable towards equities gains whereas margin interest obviously is. In other words borrowing from a margin account has far greater tax benefits than for a mortgage, not to mention a lower interest rate if you're in the highest tier like me. When the fed starts to raise I will sell off some of my margin holdings.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 12:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Fxtrader I would've agreed with you a few years ago. I used to invest in Valueline's top 100 stocks as they have a great track record. However, FSLR is a great example of what's wrong with Valueline's methodology and what's right with IBD's. When Valueline initiated coverage on FSLR the stock was trading as around $100 and they had a 5 year price target somewhere around $50. I had to determine whether the stock was indeed overvalued. Since it has been consistently rated the #1 energy stock by IBD I decided it wasn't. Valueline along with every analyst covering the stock has been behind the curve. Read some of my articles on peak oil, and FSLR's advantages.

      For the intermediate term horizon as long as FSLR maintains the #1 position from a technological standpoint their stock will go up. Even if they lose the #1 position I'll have plenty of time to sell, probably at a higher level than it's at now since the market is so slow to react to technological news. It took the market approximately 18 months AFTER the release of the products to decide the Wii and the IPhone were a success. It still hasn't figured out that the game is over for the like of AMD and Ford, which is why AMD took the market down upon reporting lousy earnings.

      You don't have to worry about me my family and friends have been warning me for years to take it easy at the poker table, etc. I never played a hand of poker until I finished reading 5 or 6 books. 99% of poker players lose but I had a streak of 34 straight winning months. FSLR has also been up ever month since IPO except 2. In a game where most players actually win of course I'm going to be as aggressive as possible without endangering my entire bankroll. As I said I also have assets in real estate.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 00:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Jack, PEs are only a useful tool for mature companies. Furthermore it should only be used to compare competitors in the same industry. FSLR doesn't really have competitors right now with a installed price 20% below the other major players. A PE of 200 on a company growing at 150% is meaningless. If you're comparing Exxon to Shell, maybe it's slightly useful. When I first bought FSLR it was supposed to break even in 2008. My how things have changed. A better way to value the company would be to try to figure out what the company would be worth, to say, GE. When Myspace and Youtube were snatched up they had no earnings to speak of, and newscorp and google took a lot of flak because of it. Now those deals look like steals.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 00:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      On Poker and Investing: Let Your Winners Run, Cut Your Losses Quickly
      I was forced to sell a few thousand shares on the way down due to margin calls but at $300 I hit the same equity that I had previously at $280. By the way I did go through the .com cycle and my mistake there was picking stocks without "durable competitive advantage" as Warren Buffet said. The stocks that had it, like Ebay, came out fine.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 00:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Will Top Estimates Due to Favorable Exchange Rate
      Well I was right on this one and the stock jumped over 30% on earnings once again. The 3rd time in 4 quarters of earnings that has happened. The same exact factors have occured once again for 1st quarter earnings in mid May. Once again I expect FSLR to beat the highest estimate due to the exchange rate averaging approximately $1.55/Euro during the quarter while estimates were based on $1.45/Euro.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 00:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Also, noticed how FSLR plummeted down to the old high at $280 today and then bounced. The longer it can hold above $280 the greater the confirmation that we're in a new up leg.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 18th 00:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Defensive investing is an oxymoron. Last year I was recommending STP, SPWR, FXI and CCJ to many of my family and friends who I thought didn't have the stomach for FSLR. Early this year when FSLR outperformed all the other "cheaper and safer" solar plays I realized what a mistake this was. I only recommend FSLR now.

      Zawy, what happens between 2012 and 2016 is irrelevant. Looking too far in the future is the most common mistake of engineer-investors. Just like in poker you want to think exactly one step ahead of your opponent and no more. e.g. if you're opponent thinks you have aa then it helps to think he thinks you have aa. But if he's an idiot and doesnt care what you have then it's a mistake to think he thinks you have aa.

      A good example of this is the threat from CIGS. I nearly passed up FSLR at $33 because of Nanosolar's outrageous claims. Then I realized that it was in too early of a phase and that most people hadn't even heard of CdTe yet let alone CIGS. If less than 1% of investors have heard of the tech it's probably too early to invest. If more than 75% it's probably too late. When you think of Intel, Microsoft, Ebay 75% penetration was the exit point where you could've rotated into a newer generation of tech stock.
      Since this article was my first based on momemtum, I figure FSLR won't be a household name for several more years. Still plenty of upside.

      s.frankola, judging by volume alone FSLR is trading $1.8B a day. In other words if they split 10-1 they would often be the #1 most active on the nasdaq. That by itself shows tenfold potential. BTW, the day after I first bought the stock at $33 it jumped to $45 and shorts declared it was overvalued. I put a 5 year price target of $400 on it. Obviously I think it's going higher than that now. When I think it no longer has a tenfold increase left, I'll sell it and buy something that does.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 17th 23:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      coloradoZman, my info comes from etrade. I tend to favor etrade's figures over yahoo's since etrade breaks them down e.g.

      * Brokerage Firms
      2.50% Holdings
      * Investment Managers
      41.80% Holdings
      * Strategic Entities
      49.90% Holdings
      * Non-Institutional
      5.80% Holdings


      Also yahoo is notorious for having inaccurate and outdated info. Their short interest data is rarely ever accurate. It's possible, however, that etrade is double counting people who qualify for two categories.

      Zawy, I've never played poker on someone else's bankroll because I've never needed to, but many pros do. Also in poker no one in their right mind would lend you money at Broker Call - 1% or 3% annually like I negotiated from Etrade. In real terms it's actually closer to 2% since the interest paid can immediately be offset but the gains can be deferred as long term gains indefinitely.

      My primary investment used to be real estate before FSLR started skyrocketing. Luckily I sold several houses last year, but I still have a lot of exposure to the declining dollar. FSLR acts as a hedge against the declining dollar and rising energy prices, which is part of the reason I have no problem pyramiding up fully margined.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 17th 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The State of the Thin-Film Photovoltaic Industry
      Steve that is not quite right. Check out solarbuzz's method for calculating cost/kwh you guys. $5/watt installed costs about 21 cents/kwh, so $3/watt installed would be 12.5 cents/kwh. Under $2.50/watt installed is the magic number.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 17th 13:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Sistah, although a general market pullback is probably the greatest risk in the short term to FSLR, it has demonstrated the ability to outperform it's peers in early 08. I didn't expect FSLR to take much of a hit even in a severe recession since I expect energy prices to continue to rise. It's hard to say whether the early 08 selloff in solar was due to the broader markets or a solar specific problem, since they've rallied back furiously during only a mild market rally.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 17th 12:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up
      Also, I find it hilarious when people accuse FSLR of being in a "bubble." In order to know it's a bubble you have to know what the stock is really worth. If you "know" the stock is really worth $30, then it's a bubble. If you "think" the stock is really worth $200, what makes a run from $30 to $300 a bubble but not $30 to $200?

      The bearish argument against FSLR is one based on short term valuations. That should be left to swing traders to figure out and not long term investors.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»