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Good thoughts and analyses, with one key tragic flaw. I agree numonyx is not headed anywhere (though it will take a very long time to fall). I agree Phase Change is dead (anything after 20 years of development, that's still not manufacturable, ain't got it). I also agree that Spansion is in the leading process position.
Mar 14 15:19 pm
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All Comments by jsam »The Spansion Expansion [View article]
The tragic flaw? Exactly that: Spansion is in the leading process position. Therefore, they should also be the cost leaders... but they are not. This leads to one conclusion only: that the costs of ramping mirrorbit are staggering. It's not an easy technology by any stretch, and the costs of research, development, and ramping to high yeild can extend through the life of the product itself. Being a leader in fab technology is often associated with being a cost leader; but this is only true if the technology is manufacturable.