VintonCounty

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    • Wed Jul 2nd 16:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Minimum Wage Hikes vs. Tax Rebates - What's More Effective?
      Minimum wage, like all price controls, is harmful. It makes unemployable those not worth the minimum wage, and those worth more don't benefit. That's all anyone needs to know about that subject. Studying subsequent spending patterns is pointless, and it tells you that those studying it are bad economists.
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    • Tue Jun 3rd 21:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
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      Why Is Oil Going Up?
      Dr. No is the one who does "not take into account the mechanics of a futures driven market". That market is totally dominated by transactions in which an actual commodity is bought and sold. The other participants in futures settle their contracts with cash payments equal to the differences between contract and market prices. That is a parallel industry of side betting about what the actual commodity market prices will be. The side bets have no more effect on commodity prices than sports betting has on the scores of college football games.
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    • Sat May 3rd 01:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
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      Walter Industries a One-Stop Shop for Coal, Natural Gas and Housing
      Metallurgical coal and coking coal are the same thing.
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    • Fri Apr 25th 03:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Opportunities in Natural Gas: Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Schlumberger
      Return on capital must not be defined in GAAP, because many definitions of both the numerator and denominator are used. This data on returns on capital are of little use, because it's undefined.

      Earnings yield is the inverse of P/E, but not here. So what is it?

      SLB has the advantage of a low income tax rate and the disadvantage of a small earnings yield.
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    • Fri Apr 25th 03:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consol, Synthesis Energy: Waste Coal is the Next Boom
      It sounds like U-Gas is better than sliced bread, but Wichman does not describe it or compare it to other gasification methods. He also does not explain what waste coal is and whether it currently has no value. Without that info, I suspect U-Gas is just a story to baffle politicians with bullshit.
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    • Tue Apr 22nd 22:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!
      To Tedspick:
      I had two reasons for saying the Nature Nazis depend on computer models:
      1. Data are quite inadequate to demonstrate human effects on climate.
      2. Without a model you don't know the temperature effect of a change in CO2 concentration. I'll make just two comments on data.

      First is that accuracy is mostly terrible, and conflicting concllusions are drawn from data. Consider correlations of CO2 concentration (from ice cores) and temperature (from unreliable indirect values). Some see a correlation and say it supports the claim that increasing CO2 concentration causes increasing temperature. Others say the correlation is better with a time lag (T effect trails), supporting the view that temperature changes cause the CO2 changes.

      The other data comment is that accuracy for the last century is inadequate to support the associated claims. To detect a temperature drift of 1K/century, which the Nature Nazis claim, requires an extraordinary temperature measurement program (which did not exist). It gets worse. To detect a correlation with temperature over that 100 years requires far better accuracy, which is totally infeasible. An example of what may charitably be called inaccurate data is a comparison of surface and air temperatures. Over about the last 50 years the surface temperatures have increased, but not air temperatures (according to measured values). That is a problem for the Nature Nazis, because the greenhouse mechanism predicts the air will warm before the surface.

      To Yetiv:
      Concentrations of Hg and S in coal combustion products can be greatly reduced with "scrubbers." It's expensive, but much cheaper than removing and disposing of CO2. So, to a first approximation, coal is the cheapest way to make electrical energy in absence of onerous CO2 regulation.

      The result of a scientific study is a conclusion, not a belief. Believing pertains to religion. You may have "studied the science", but it did not influence your attitude.

      You emphasize that SCE chose PV generation. I'll comment. Regulated utilities typically must get approval for any major capital expenditure from a state utility commission. Along with the approval, the commission promises to allow electric rates sufficient for a guaranteed return on invested capital (ROIC). If the CA commission approved PV (which surely it did), SCE would not care whether PV is cost-competitive. So SCE's choice might only indicate CA goofiness.

      To all:
      This discussion has two ethical questions hiding in plain view.

      1. Is government justified in forcing us to use a particular type of electrical power generation? The Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution both say the national government cannot impose such political choices on us. Congress routinely ignores those stuffy documents, of course. Those who care about this should understand how things work. The subsidy on PV generation, for example, is, I think, a production tax credit. A production tax credit may not literally be a subsidy, but it distorts the market like one. Also, Congress tends to use sneaky methods. If there are choices A and B, and Congress wants us to use A; it may achieve that result by imposing burdens on use of B. Taxing CO2 emissions, if it happens, would be such a burden.

      2. Is it moral to advocate (mandatory) government actions that make Americans less prosperous? Friends of farmers recently did that by mandating use of ethanol in motor fuels and precluding any source but American corn. The propaganda drums are beating to change American opinions about electrical energy, so be alert.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 16:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Aurelian and Corriente Shares Down as Equador Suspends Mining Exploration
      This illustrates the main risk to mining companies: thieving governments. Mining companies must operate where the minerals are, and they must invest much capital in mine development. If the host government then imposes high royalty/tax or seizes majority interest at dictated price, the miner can't afford to leave. All it can do is avoid that country in the future, but that can cause missed opportunities. A country's government can swing from honest to pirates to honest again to pirates again during the long lifetime of a mine. This can make a small miner insolvent. Conclusion: big miners are safer.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 15:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There!
      Coal is the winner unless you shackle it with the requirement that the generator not emit CO2, also known as plant food. Why would anyone want to impose that restriction? The Nature Nazis say that manmade CO2 is making Earth warmer. That sounds desirable to me, but consider how the Nature Nazis reached their conclusion about man's effects on climate. They got it from inaccurate computer models. The models compute heat balances, and the associated temperatures, for particular places on Earth. Rate of energy inflow from the superhot sun is computed for an assumed Earth temperature; and also the rate of energy transfer from Earth to space (at nearly absolute zero temperature) is computed for the same assumed temperature. In the models, the correct temperature is the one for which rates of inflow and outflow are equal. The Nature Nazis worry about a temperature change of 1K over a century; so, to be useful, a model must be extremely accurate. No models now are even close to useful accuracy, and they won't attain it within current lifetimes. The punch line is that imposing a CO2 emission limit on coal-fired generators is completely arbitrary.
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    • Thu Apr 3rd 05:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bullish on Commodities? Consider DryShips
      DRYS has assets/equity ratio of 2.29. That amount of liabilities is not big; but it might worry investors, because shipping is cyclical. What if day rates were a fifth of present value, as in 2006? Would DRYS be able to make loan payments? Worse, ship values would fall; and lenders would probably demand more collateral. Normally I would say that lenders have incentive to consider such circumstances, so it must be safe. But we have seen recently that lenders sometimes fall under a spell and enter loan contracts they later regret.

      I compared Dryships (DRYS) with Diana Shipping (DSX). I found a data reliability problem for return on assets (ROA). For DRYS, Morningstar says 27%; Yahoo Financial says 13.7%; and I calculated 474.6/2346.9=20.2% from the 20-F form. That affects return on equity (ROE), because ROE=2.29 x ROA. For DSX, Morningstar says 18.45%; Yahoo says 9.99%; and the 2007 annual report gives 134.2/944.3=14.2%.

      Another thing that might make investors nervous is that DRYS retains most of its earnings for buying more ships. In a normal business, investors could be fairly confident that the retained earnings would build equity. But if a ship glut developed, ship values would fall; and it might be a long time before the retained earnings add their weights to the equity line. It's a wild business, suitable only for the bold.

      On a happy note, I am amazed that no one comments on the most beautiful feature of international shipping: shippers pay no income tax.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 17:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Bull Made Of Steel
      Nothing about the balance statements? Maybe some of these companies have better ROICs than others; how important is that? A comparison of steel scrap prices to prices for ore and coke would help comparing minimills with integrated steel mills. My point is that one should not make any decisions based only on this report.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 16:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hillary, Greenspan and Volcker
      I don't like for money the government takes from me at gunpoint to be used to subsidize other people's mortgage payments. That is what Hillary is describing, and I would not call it outstanding.
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    • Tue Mar 25th 16:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Dollar Paradigm Shift Underway
      Author should have clearly stated his theme in the first paragraph. (He only hinted it was about a paradigm shift of some kind.) I skimmed the first half, looking for the theme, and quit when I found none.
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    • Thu Mar 6th 16:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's Getting Harder to Keep on Truckin'
      Re the New York limos, this is another instance of politicians saying we must accept their preferences rather than following our own. Other examples are auto fuel (octane and must contain ethanol), CAFE, toilets (water per flush), shower heads (minimum flow resistance), lawn mowers (deadman handle), wood finishes (no oil vehicle), cash movements (must be less than $10,000) and cigarette ads (verboten). A complete list would probably exceed a thousand pages. The explanation is that Americans are effeminate sheep, afraid to insist on making their own choices.
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    • Sun Feb 24th 03:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Merck Heads for Another Catastrophe
      Please don't write about something that you know nothing about.
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    • Wed Dec 5th 01:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Paulson Needn't Worry About Litigation Risk in His Mortgage Plan
      I think the investments being discussed are bonds. Bond contracts specify specific payment amounts at specific intervals. Suppose I held such a bond, and the issuer arbitrarily changed either the payment schedule or amount. Couldn't I go to some court and petition to have the issuer declared insolvent and have some of his assets liquidated to satisfy my claim?
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