Dr. No is the one who does "not take into account the mechanics of a futures driven market". That market is totally dominated by transactions in which an actual commodity is bought and sold. The other participants in futures settle their contracts with cash payments equal to the differences between contract and market prices. That is a parallel industry of side betting about what the actual commodity market prices will be. The side bets have no more effect on commodity prices than sports betting has on the scores of college football games.
Why Is Oil Going Up? [View article]