Dawson Lodge

PowerShares Clean Energy ETF Lights Up Gloomy Market

Well I can't fault your marketing but I think your timing needs work.

"the stock market is not a barometer of current conditions, but rather an anticipatory mechanism"

Well that came right out of a book, but is simplistic in the extreme, and is largely rubbish. Some issues reflect history, some reflect the present, some reflect anticipation. And that's just today, it could be different next week.

"assuming this recession is of average length"
Assumptions are suicide for a trader but you are still young and will learn this.

"we believe we are closer to the end of this bear market than the beginning" Based on what?
Tea leaves? A feeling? Or just plain delusion?

"inflation ultimately affects all prices, including stocks"
I suspect that your time sampling is pretty short.
Suggest you get a good economics history book to learn about the numerous exceptions. The air money created by the FED is just barely able to replace the digits evaporating from asset melt-down. Read some
Hayek will ya?

"At some point in the months ahead, these funds will begin to move back into the stock market as investors grow tired of earning a negative real return (after inflation) on their savings"

More book-rubbish from the inexperienced. Yeah investors will take their negative-return cash and put
it into a bonfire. Not this time amigo......

"Stock prices are likely to be meaningfully higher by the end of the year than they are today"
Based on what? Coin flips?

"the current cyclical bear market may be more than half over". Which cycle are you talking about? Your christmas club cycle? How about the 4 year, 11 year, 19 year, 60 year, 200 year cycles? Do you know AnyThing about monetary economics? Or just college rubbish?
You ARE fundamentally correct about alternative energy, but buying this ETF after a massive H&S distribution pattern is suicide. Some of the issues inside are bullish, some are bearish, it's a kludge.

"Quantitative vigor" to me just means econometrics
on steroids, accounting is not trading.

And ETFs are not "investments", they are vehicles for speculation.

I admire your ambition J.D., but I think you have a lot
to learn in some critical areas. Like economics, technical analysis, and timing. You may be a good accountant and marketer, but better round up a real trader before you crash & burn your "clients".
Although I doubt that you understand how little you know.................

have potential,