Dawson Lodge

22 Comments

    • Moody's, Fitch, S&P, SEC Are All Useless [view article]
      Absolutely correct !!! The ratings agencies and the SEC should be abolished and indicted for constructive fraud, racketeering, and money laundering. They are all corrupt, and a worthless sham designed to part the ignorant from their assets. Of course it all stems from the original grand fraud, the private Federal Reserve System, the greatest Ponzi scheme ever invented, designed to transfer the wealth of the American citizen to the state. Karl Marx, your shell game worked. Welcome to the United Soviet States of America!
      Sep 15 10:51 PM
    • Time To Ban CEOs and Senators from Derivatives Markets [view article]
      Well said. It's all about the Peter principal. Any clown that whines about speculators is just demonstrating his ignorance and collectivist leanings. Probably a Keynesian, and got his position through cut-throat office politics instead of merit.
      Well, that's over. After this depression merit will again rise to the fore. Speculation is a holy advocation. It is the foundation of true capitalism (we ain't seen much of that in these huge companies). Speculators add liquidity to markets, damping excesses by taking risks. They are the people that business operators should transfer the risks to, instead of gambling with their profit margins.

      Any CEO that spouts this ignorance should be removed by their board. If these guys are not smart enough to calculate at what price fuel costs will negatively impact their operating margins, and use the market for price insurance as it was intended, they better read some Ron Paul.
      They are the speculators. Essentially they were short energy and were wrong. Speculating with the capital of their shareholders. It is just incompetence.

      If I can lock in a price for fuel that guarantees my margins, I had better do it. If I don't, it is pure negligence,
      the tools are there. If you can't manage risk, and get caught with your pants down, go back to school.

      Better yet, hire a rogue economist that understands the realities of the market, can use cycles and trends to identify the risks, and understands your business.

      My clients didn't get caught with "unexpected" price rises,
      because I have trained them to be pro-active risk managers. Anybody caught by "surprise" shouldn't be blaming the guys who provide the grease that makes capitalism work. Or maybe they would prefer the
      Chinese system, where gross misallocations of resources are made for political reasons. They will
      crash like Russia.
      Great article.

      Aug 14 06:01 PM
    • PowerShares Clean Energy ETF Lights Up Gloomy Market [view article]
      Well I can't fault your marketing but I think your timing needs work.

      "the stock market is not a barometer of current conditions, but rather an anticipatory mechanism"

      Well that came right out of a book, but is simplistic in the extreme, and is largely rubbish. Some issues reflect history, some reflect the present, some reflect anticipation. And that's just today, it could be different next week.

      "assuming this recession is of average length"
      Assumptions are suicide for a trader but you are still young and will learn this.

      "we believe we are closer to the end of this bear market than the beginning" Based on what?
      Tea leaves? A feeling? Or just plain delusion?

      "inflation ultimately affects all prices, including stocks"
      I suspect that your time sampling is pretty short.
      Suggest you get a good economics history book to learn about the numerous exceptions. The air money created by the FED is just barely able to replace the digits evaporating from asset melt-down. Read some
      Hayek will ya?

      "At some point in the months ahead, these funds will begin to move back into the stock market as investors grow tired of earning a negative real return (after inflation) on their savings"

      More book-rubbish from the inexperienced. Yeah investors will take their negative-return cash and put
      it into a bonfire. Not this time amigo......

      "Stock prices are likely to be meaningfully higher by the end of the year than they are today"
      Based on what? Coin flips?

      "the current cyclical bear market may be more than half over". Which cycle are you talking about? Your christmas club cycle? How about the 4 year, 11 year, 19 year, 60 year, 200 year cycles? Do you know AnyThing about monetary economics? Or just college rubbish?
      You ARE fundamentally correct about alternative energy, but buying this ETF after a massive H&S distribution pattern is suicide. Some of the issues inside are bullish, some are bearish, it's a kludge.

      "Quantitative vigor" to me just means econometrics
      on steroids, accounting is not trading.

      And ETFs are not "investments"... they are vehicles for speculation.

      I admire your ambition J.D., but I think you have a lot
      to learn in some critical areas. Like economics, technical analysis, and timing. You may be a good accountant and marketer, but better round up a real trader before you crash & burn your "clients".
      Although I doubt that you understand how little you know.................

      have potential,




      Mar 11 02:14 AM
    • Investing in Platinum: Profit from South Africa's Energy Squeeze [view article]
      Great info Sam. If you are a platinum fan, check out this mine:

      www.platinumgroupmetal...

      The link: "Western Bushveld joint venture video" is one of the most fascinating 3D geology presentations I have ever seen:

      javascript:Film('platinumgroupmetals.ne...')

      Mar 05 02:57 PM
    • The Anatomy of a Bear Market [view article]
      Sure there will be a time to recapitalize producers. But not when it takes $4 of debt to generate $1 of production.
      What people don't remember is that the US declared bankruptcy in 1971, and the time since has been a tissue paper (FED) fantasy.
      This kind of mass delusional hysteria occurs every 60 years or so, when debt-money evaporates faster than it can be created.
      The masses remain in denial until stuffing their faces becomes painful to the wallet, and it costs a week's pay to see the superbowl.
      There has been no profit for 30 years. The stored wealth of America has been incinerated to build military empires (US & Soviet).
      The treasury has been looted, the capital has been squandered, the owners of the US government have
      their Swiss chalets well stocked.
      When you can invest a buck you have, (not a buck you borrow) and make a buck profit in a few months, that's when the cycle has bottomed.
      Sell the gold and buy stocks around 2015.       Feb 28 01:30 AM
    • Gold's Golden Rule [view article]
      This gold liquidation by the IMF is a creditor forced sale.
      China has instructed the debt cartel to surrender the gold, a nice forward offer at $1000 per ounce.
      It's a done deal except for the clearing.
      If not surrendered voluntarily, it will be bought in the open market, thereby crashing the monopolist's precious US dollar (faster and sooner), and blowing the FED out of the water, which doesn't help either side.
      The Chinese are tough but they are practical. They have given the globalists enough rope to hang themselves.
      The new kids on the block (in NY) can't compete with thousands of years of trading expertise. All warfare (including economic) is a game of deception. Nixon though he was going to get over on these guys.
      hahahahahahahahaha
      Feb 28 01:02 AM
    • Time To Sell Russian ETFs and Stocks [view article]
      Interesting stuff. You say "Minimizing risks and losses is an important part of managing investments".
      I think mininimizing risks and losses is the PRIMARY
      part of managing investments.
      Why anyone would gamble (there is a distinction between investing and gambling) in Russia is beyond me. Or China (50% rigged market) for that matter.

      I have more opportunities on my radar (long and short) in the civilized world than I can take advantage of. The work comes in deciding which 100 issues out of a couple hundred to deploy into.
      Who knows what the hell is happening in a communist country?       Feb 27 03:10 AM
    • Portfolio Recovery Will Be the Mother of All Short Squeezes [view article]
      This looks like a reasonable gamble if you're long with a stop at 33. Odds are 70% that the bottom is in at 27,
      even if it was mostly short covering, there's probably not a lot of suppy out there to kill ya. There may be a larger wave in effect however so I would trail the stops and wouldn't bet the farm. Looks like you are one of the few guys that can analyze this kind of outfit, too complicated for me, well done .       Feb 26 02:57 AM
    • Friday's Turnaround: Raid on the Shorts [view article]
      Well-put Bill, will be checking your site. Yeah I was rolling on the floor when I saw this explosion, it was
      such transparant intervention, you know the FraudReserveSystem were the only guys who could drop a billion in 5 minutes, the volume was awesome!

      It just indicates the desperation factor, the banks are hanging by a thread. It's all the same to me, I made money on my hedges and put it into wheat. Took out more dough from that panic and now ready to sell more banks when this cat bounce fails!
      hahahahahahahahahah
      Feb 26 01:32 AM
    • Ship Finance Ltd: Steady and Profitable [view article]
      Nice report Tim, will check out your site. I love this
      company too,they are great managers.
      I am sure there are a few guys out there building a position buying the dips and hedging on rallies.
      You can take this kind of cash flow to the bank and
      I'd be doing it myself if I had the capital.
      For now those dividends are paying for a lot of
      Margaritas!       Feb 26 01:19 AM
    • Shorting Coal on Extraordinary Short-Term Demand [view article]
      Your logic is flawless Stephen but I think your timing is premature.

      I believe the recent rallies just highlight a
      supply demand imbalance (thats what moves markets) that was hidden until the crunch.

      It's not like we're going to run out of coal (or oil either). It's just that we can't get it out and shipped to where it's needed fast enough.

      This is a demand pull, supply push is at capacity.

      This cycle looks to be a bit bigger than a couple of months. But your point is well taken, and the scale will tip towards oversupply (or reduced demand) soon enough.

      Besides, coal in the yard is better than dollars (US) in the bank. That won't change for awhile either.......       Feb 20 02:11 AM
    • Platinum and Rhodium: Two Metals On Fire [view article]
      Nice work Neville, I'm all over the PGMs, stock, warrants, ADR preferreds, now pennys, love the metal and the industry! Don't mind the profits either!
      Will be watching for your work in cobalt, vanadium,
      telurium? Best rgds       Feb 20 12:40 AM
    • The Iranian Oil Bourse: A Bourse with No Basis [view article]
      Interesting news, I was waiting to hear about it, I though they were going to trade in Euros, no doubt there will be a FOREX component to the bourse. Hey, we'll even take gold!
      Coincidentally, we've had all your favorite stocks for quite a while, those trusts are effectively an investment in Canadian dollars (the strongest currency), invested in a cash stream from the most bullish commodity (oil).
      We put all our dividends into GLD shares (the safest savings).
      Three strikes, the dollar's out !!!!       Feb 19 10:12 PM
    • New Models Show $700 Billion In Credit Losses [view article]
      Nice work, and your points are well taken about officials (read looters) downplaying the disaster. How about an arbitrage, sell the financials and buy the rental owners.
      Are there any stocks that would benefit from a rush to apartment rentals?       Feb 17 02:15 PM
    • The 'Uptick Rule' (A.K.A The Dangers of Dog Piles) [view article]
      Man, let me tell ya, market surveillance and documentation if a stock was sold on an uptick, unchanged, or a downtick, seems like an insane
      task (maybe the SEC is packed with quants, I don't know) and in any event, the purpose of the market
      being price discovery, it is illogical to dictate a bias
      either bullish or bearish. Bull raids and bear raids are
      always a possibility, if you're not able to play, it's better to stay out. Luckily for the bears, gross ineptitude in the area of risk management is the norm,
      and innocence on the part of passive money (your pension fund) is also the norm, so if the idea that
      values can actually decline is unfathomable, too bad.
      What is more interesting to me, is the timing of this
      "regulatory" shift. It just says to me that the guys at the top (who own the SEC), wanted to be ready for a great bear market. I always follow the smart money.       Feb 11 02:34 AM
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