Dawson Lodge's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/126090/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/95583-moody-s-fitch-s-p-sec-are-all-useless?source=feed#comment-255484 255484 ]]> Mon, 15 Sep 2008 22:51:45 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90898-time-to-ban-ceos-and-senators-from-derivatives-markets?source=feed#comment-230668 230668 Well, that's over. After this depression merit will again rise to the fore. Speculation is a holy advocation. It is the foundation of true capitalism (we ain't seen much of that in these huge companies). Speculators add liquidity to markets, damping excesses by taking risks. They are the people that business operators should transfer the risks to, instead of gambling with their profit margins.

Any CEO that spouts this ignorance should be removed by their board. If these guys are not smart enough to calculate at what price fuel costs will negatively impact their operating margins, and use the market for price insurance as it was intended, they better read some Ron Paul.
They are the speculators. Essentially they were short energy and were wrong. Speculating with the capital of their shareholders. It is just incompetence.

If I can lock in a price for fuel that guarantees my margins, I had better do it. If I don't, it is pure negligence,
the tools are there. If you can't manage risk, and get caught with your pants down, go back to school.

Better yet, hire a rogue economist that understands the realities of the market, can use cycles and trends to identify the risks, and understands your business.

My clients didn't get caught with "unexpected" price rises,
because I have trained them to be pro-active risk managers. Anybody caught by "surprise" shouldn't be blaming the guys who provide the grease that makes capitalism work. Or maybe they would prefer the
Chinese system, where gross misallocations of resources are made for political reasons. They will
crash like Russia.
Great article.

]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:01:55 -0400 Well, that's over. After this depression merit will again rise to the fore. Speculation is a holy advocation. It is the foundation of true capitalism (we ain't seen much of that in these huge companies). Speculators add liquidity to markets, damping excesses by taking risks. They are the people that business operators should transfer the risks to, instead of gambling with their profit margins.

Any CEO that spouts this ignorance should be removed by their board. If these guys are not smart enough to calculate at what price fuel costs will negatively impact their operating margins, and use the market for price insurance as it was intended, they better read some Ron Paul.
They are the speculators. Essentially they were short energy and were wrong. Speculating with the capital of their shareholders. It is just incompetence.

If I can lock in a price for fuel that guarantees my margins, I had better do it. If I don't, it is pure negligence,
the tools are there. If you can't manage risk, and get caught with your pants down, go back to school.

Better yet, hire a rogue economist that understands the realities of the market, can use cycles and trends to identify the risks, and understands your business.

My clients didn't get caught with "unexpected" price rises,
because I have trained them to be pro-active risk managers. Anybody caught by "surprise" shouldn't be blaming the guys who provide the grease that makes capitalism work. Or maybe they would prefer the
Chinese system, where gross misallocations of resources are made for political reasons. They will
crash like Russia.
Great article.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67912-powershares-clean-energy-etf-lights-up-gloomy-market?source=feed#comment-124973 124973
"the stock market is not a barometer of current conditions, but rather an anticipatory mechanism"

Well that came right out of a book, but is simplistic in the extreme, and is largely rubbish. Some issues reflect history, some reflect the present, some reflect anticipation. And that's just today, it could be different next week.

"assuming this recession is of average length"
Assumptions are suicide for a trader but you are still young and will learn this.

"we believe we are closer to the end of this bear market than the beginning" Based on what?
Tea leaves? A feeling? Or just plain delusion?

"inflation ultimately affects all prices, including stocks"
I suspect that your time sampling is pretty short.
Suggest you get a good economics history book to learn about the numerous exceptions. The air money created by the FED is just barely able to replace the digits evaporating from asset melt-down. Read some
Hayek will ya?

"At some point in the months ahead, these funds will begin to move back into the stock market as investors grow tired of earning a negative real return (after inflation) on their savings"

More book-rubbish from the inexperienced. Yeah investors will take their negative-return cash and put
it into a bonfire. Not this time amigo......

"Stock prices are likely to be meaningfully higher by the end of the year than they are today"
Based on what? Coin flips?

"the current cyclical bear market may be more than half over". Which cycle are you talking about? Your christmas club cycle? How about the 4 year, 11 year, 19 year, 60 year, 200 year cycles? Do you know AnyThing about monetary economics? Or just college rubbish?
You ARE fundamentally correct about alternative energy, but buying this ETF after a massive H&S distribution pattern is suicide. Some of the issues inside are bullish, some are bearish, it's a kludge.

"Quantitative vigor" to me just means econometrics
on steroids, accounting is not trading.

And ETFs are not "investments", they are vehicles for speculation.

I admire your ambition J.D., but I think you have a lot
to learn in some critical areas. Like economics, technical analysis, and timing. You may be a good accountant and marketer, but better round up a real trader before you crash & burn your "clients".
Although I doubt that you understand how little you know.................

have potential,




]]> Tue, 11 Mar 2008 02:14:58 -0400
"the stock market is not a barometer of current conditions, but rather an anticipatory mechanism"

Well that came right out of a book, but is simplistic in the extreme, and is largely rubbish. Some issues reflect history, some reflect the present, some reflect anticipation. And that's just today, it could be different next week.

"assuming this recession is of average length"
Assumptions are suicide for a trader but you are still young and will learn this.

"we believe we are closer to the end of this bear market than the beginning" Based on what?
Tea leaves? A feeling? Or just plain delusion?

"inflation ultimately affects all prices, including stocks"
I suspect that your time sampling is pretty short.
Suggest you get a good economics history book to learn about the numerous exceptions. The air money created by the FED is just barely able to replace the digits evaporating from asset melt-down. Read some
Hayek will ya?

"At some point in the months ahead, these funds will begin to move back into the stock market as investors grow tired of earning a negative real return (after inflation) on their savings"

More book-rubbish from the inexperienced. Yeah investors will take their negative-return cash and put
it into a bonfire. Not this time amigo......

"Stock prices are likely to be meaningfully higher by the end of the year than they are today"
Based on what? Coin flips?

"the current cyclical bear market may be more than half over". Which cycle are you talking about? Your christmas club cycle? How about the 4 year, 11 year, 19 year, 60 year, 200 year cycles? Do you know AnyThing about monetary economics? Or just college rubbish?
You ARE fundamentally correct about alternative energy, but buying this ETF after a massive H&S distribution pattern is suicide. Some of the issues inside are bullish, some are bearish, it's a kludge.

"Quantitative vigor" to me just means econometrics
on steroids, accounting is not trading.

And ETFs are not "investments", they are vehicles for speculation.

I admire your ambition J.D., but I think you have a lot
to learn in some critical areas. Like economics, technical analysis, and timing. You may be a good accountant and marketer, but better round up a real trader before you crash & burn your "clients".
Although I doubt that you understand how little you know.................

have potential,




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67231-investing-in-platinum-profit-from-south-africa-s-energy-squeeze?source=feed#comment-122550 122550
www.platinumgroupmetal...

The link: "Western Bushveld joint venture video" is one of the most fascinating 3D geology presentations I have ever seen:

javascript:Film('platinumgroupmetals.ne...')

]]> Wed, 05 Mar 2008 14:57:44 -0500
www.platinumgroupmetal...

The link: "Western Bushveld joint venture video" is one of the most fascinating 3D geology presentations I have ever seen:

javascript:Film('platinumgroupmetals.ne...')

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66123-the-anatomy-of-a-bear-market?source=feed#comment-120022 120022 What people don't remember is that the US declared bankruptcy in 1971, and the time since has been a tissue paper (FED) fantasy.
This kind of mass delusional hysteria occurs every 60 years or so, when debt-money evaporates faster than it can be created.
The masses remain in denial until stuffing their faces becomes painful to the wallet, and it costs a week's pay to see the superbowl.
There has been no profit for 30 years. The stored wealth of America has been incinerated to build military empires (US & Soviet).
The treasury has been looted, the capital has been squandered, the owners of the US government have
their Swiss chalets well stocked.
When you can invest a buck you have, (not a buck you borrow) and make a buck profit in a few months, that's when the cycle has bottomed.
Sell the gold and buy stocks around 2015. ]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 01:30:31 -0500 What people don't remember is that the US declared bankruptcy in 1971, and the time since has been a tissue paper (FED) fantasy.
This kind of mass delusional hysteria occurs every 60 years or so, when debt-money evaporates faster than it can be created.
The masses remain in denial until stuffing their faces becomes painful to the wallet, and it costs a week's pay to see the superbowl.
There has been no profit for 30 years. The stored wealth of America has been incinerated to build military empires (US & Soviet).
The treasury has been looted, the capital has been squandered, the owners of the US government have
their Swiss chalets well stocked.
When you can invest a buck you have, (not a buck you borrow) and make a buck profit in a few months, that's when the cycle has bottomed.
Sell the gold and buy stocks around 2015. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66114-gold-s-golden-rule?source=feed#comment-120014 120014 China has instructed the debt cartel to surrender the gold, a nice forward offer at $1000 per ounce.
It's a done deal except for the clearing.
If not surrendered voluntarily, it will be bought in the open market, thereby crashing the monopolist's precious US dollar (faster and sooner), and blowing the FED out of the water, which doesn't help either side.
The Chinese are tough but they are practical. They have given the globalists enough rope to hang themselves.
The new kids on the block (in NY) can't compete with thousands of years of trading expertise. All warfare (including economic) is a game of deception. Nixon though he was going to get over on these guys.
hahahahahahahahaha
]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 01:02:23 -0500 China has instructed the debt cartel to surrender the gold, a nice forward offer at $1000 per ounce.
It's a done deal except for the clearing.
If not surrendered voluntarily, it will be bought in the open market, thereby crashing the monopolist's precious US dollar (faster and sooner), and blowing the FED out of the water, which doesn't help either side.
The Chinese are tough but they are practical. They have given the globalists enough rope to hang themselves.
The new kids on the block (in NY) can't compete with thousands of years of trading expertise. All warfare (including economic) is a game of deception. Nixon though he was going to get over on these guys.
hahahahahahahahaha
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65795-time-to-sell-russian-etfs-and-stocks?source=feed#comment-119589 119589 I think mininimizing risks and losses is the PRIMARY
part of managing investments.
Why anyone would gamble (there is a distinction between investing and gambling) in Russia is beyond me. Or China (50% rigged market) for that matter.

I have more opportunities on my radar (long and short) in the civilized world than I can take advantage of. The work comes in deciding which 100 issues out of a couple hundred to deploy into.
Who knows what the hell is happening in a communist country? ]]> Wed, 27 Feb 2008 03:10:02 -0500 I think mininimizing risks and losses is the PRIMARY
part of managing investments.
Why anyone would gamble (there is a distinction between investing and gambling) in Russia is beyond me. Or China (50% rigged market) for that matter.

I have more opportunities on my radar (long and short) in the civilized world than I can take advantage of. The work comes in deciding which 100 issues out of a couple hundred to deploy into.
Who knows what the hell is happening in a communist country? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65912-portfolio-recovery-will-be-the-mother-of-all-short-squeezes?source=feed#comment-119071 119071 even if it was mostly short covering, there's probably not a lot of suppy out there to kill ya. There may be a larger wave in effect however so I would trail the stops and wouldn't bet the farm. Looks like you are one of the few guys that can analyze this kind of outfit, too complicated for me, well done .]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 02:57:39 -0500 even if it was mostly short covering, there's probably not a lot of suppy out there to kill ya. There may be a larger wave in effect however so I would trail the stops and wouldn't bet the farm. Looks like you are one of the few guys that can analyze this kind of outfit, too complicated for me, well done .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65780-friday-s-turnaround-raid-on-the-shorts?source=feed#comment-119060 119060 such transparant intervention, you know the FraudReserveSystem were the only guys who could drop a billion in 5 minutes, the volume was awesome!

It just indicates the desperation factor, the banks are hanging by a thread. It's all the same to me, I made money on my hedges and put it into wheat. Took out more dough from that panic and now ready to sell more banks when this cat bounce fails!
hahahahahahahahahah
]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 01:32:01 -0500 such transparant intervention, you know the FraudReserveSystem were the only guys who could drop a billion in 5 minutes, the volume was awesome!

It just indicates the desperation factor, the banks are hanging by a thread. It's all the same to me, I made money on my hedges and put it into wheat. Took out more dough from that panic and now ready to sell more banks when this cat bounce fails!
hahahahahahahahahah
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65816-ship-finance-ltd-steady-and-profitable?source=feed#comment-119057 119057 company too,they are great managers.
I am sure there are a few guys out there building a position buying the dips and hedging on rallies.
You can take this kind of cash flow to the bank and
I'd be doing it myself if I had the capital.
For now those dividends are paying for a lot of
Margaritas!]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 01:19:54 -0500 company too,they are great managers.
I am sure there are a few guys out there building a position buying the dips and hedging on rallies.
You can take this kind of cash flow to the bank and
I'd be doing it myself if I had the capital.
For now those dividends are paying for a lot of
Margaritas!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65087-shorting-coal-on-extraordinary-short-term-demand?source=feed#comment-117326 117326
I believe the recent rallies just highlight a
supply demand imbalance (thats what moves markets) that was hidden until the crunch.

It's not like we're going to run out of coal (or oil either). It's just that we can't get it out and shipped to where it's needed fast enough.

This is a demand pull, supply push is at capacity.

This cycle looks to be a bit bigger than a couple of months. But your point is well taken, and the scale will tip towards oversupply (or reduced demand) soon enough.

Besides, coal in the yard is better than dollars (US) in the bank. That won't change for awhile either.......]]> Wed, 20 Feb 2008 02:11:30 -0500
I believe the recent rallies just highlight a
supply demand imbalance (thats what moves markets) that was hidden until the crunch.

It's not like we're going to run out of coal (or oil either). It's just that we can't get it out and shipped to where it's needed fast enough.

This is a demand pull, supply push is at capacity.

This cycle looks to be a bit bigger than a couple of months. But your point is well taken, and the scale will tip towards oversupply (or reduced demand) soon enough.

Besides, coal in the yard is better than dollars (US) in the bank. That won't change for awhile either.......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65134-platinum-and-rhodium-two-metals-on-fire?source=feed#comment-117317 117317 Will be watching for your work in cobalt, vanadium,
telurium? Best rgds]]> Wed, 20 Feb 2008 00:40:22 -0500 Will be watching for your work in cobalt, vanadium,
telurium? Best rgds]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65098-the-iranian-oil-bourse-a-bourse-with-no-basis?source=feed#comment-117290 117290 Coincidentally, we've had all your favorite stocks for quite a while, those trusts are effectively an investment in Canadian dollars (the strongest currency), invested in a cash stream from the most bullish commodity (oil).
We put all our dividends into GLD shares (the safest savings).
Three strikes, the dollar's out !!!!]]> Tue, 19 Feb 2008 22:12:45 -0500 Coincidentally, we've had all your favorite stocks for quite a while, those trusts are effectively an investment in Canadian dollars (the strongest currency), invested in a cash stream from the most bullish commodity (oil).
We put all our dividends into GLD shares (the safest savings).
Three strikes, the dollar's out !!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62275-new-models-show-700-billion-in-credit-losses?source=feed#comment-116782 116782 Are there any stocks that would benefit from a rush to apartment rentals?]]> Sun, 17 Feb 2008 14:15:28 -0500 Are there any stocks that would benefit from a rush to apartment rentals?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63851-the-uptick-rule-a-k-a-the-dangers-of-dog-piles?source=feed#comment-115632 115632 task (maybe the SEC is packed with quants, I don't know) and in any event, the purpose of the market
being price discovery, it is illogical to dictate a bias
either bullish or bearish. Bull raids and bear raids are
always a possibility, if you're not able to play, it's better to stay out. Luckily for the bears, gross ineptitude in the area of risk management is the norm,
and innocence on the part of passive money (your pension fund) is also the norm, so if the idea that
values can actually decline is unfathomable, too bad.
What is more interesting to me, is the timing of this
"regulatory" shift. It just says to me that the guys at the top (who own the SEC), wanted to be ready for a great bear market. I always follow the smart money.]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2008 02:34:43 -0500 task (maybe the SEC is packed with quants, I don't know) and in any event, the purpose of the market
being price discovery, it is illogical to dictate a bias
either bullish or bearish. Bull raids and bear raids are
always a possibility, if you're not able to play, it's better to stay out. Luckily for the bears, gross ineptitude in the area of risk management is the norm,
and innocence on the part of passive money (your pension fund) is also the norm, so if the idea that
values can actually decline is unfathomable, too bad.
What is more interesting to me, is the timing of this
"regulatory" shift. It just says to me that the guys at the top (who own the SEC), wanted to be ready for a great bear market. I always follow the smart money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63720-goodbye-commerce-bancorp-vernon-hill-mourns-the-end-of-an-era?source=feed#comment-115631 115631 with debit cards for those of us that want our bank backed with real assets? Let's talk...]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2008 02:16:55 -0500 with debit cards for those of us that want our bank backed with real assets? Let's talk...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61431-shorting-etfs-goodbye-to-the-old-risks?source=feed#comment-113145 113145 Our partnership has spent a year building a position in recession-resistant industries.
When the head & shoulders top in the indexes was confirmed, we laid on hedges short EFT indexes and index futures to protect the portfolio.
Now we are adding crash resistant stocks at support, and selling poor performers on rallies. The hedges are now the core position, since the bear has been confirmed....]]> Mon, 28 Jan 2008 01:09:17 -0500 Our partnership has spent a year building a position in recession-resistant industries.
When the head & shoulders top in the indexes was confirmed, we laid on hedges short EFT indexes and index futures to protect the portfolio.
Now we are adding crash resistant stocks at support, and selling poor performers on rallies. The hedges are now the core position, since the bear has been confirmed....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45569-great-society-part-ii-fed-tries-to-save-itself-from-itself?source=feed#comment-108434 108434 Sat, 05 Jan 2008 15:33:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/47146-the-evolution-of-the-hedge-fund-industry?source=feed#comment-108433 108433 The air is leaking from the baloon.Market transparency is possible in real time via the internet. Regulation is a fraud for the purpose of making sheep think everything is OK. Nothing could be further from the truth........]]> Sat, 05 Jan 2008 15:25:40 -0500 The air is leaking from the baloon.Market transparency is possible in real time via the internet. Regulation is a fraud for the purpose of making sheep think everything is OK. Nothing could be further from the truth........]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58158-new-electric-vehicles-coming-soon?source=feed#comment-106648 106648 Sun, 23 Dec 2007 16:36:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/55612-comparing-crude-oil-price-trends-across-10-currencies?source=feed#comment-105130 105130 I'd like to see it with the little (trade weighted) currencies left out, and be curious to see gold in there (it's a 'currency' too). As a matter of fact, I see a pretty good pattern correlation between oil & gold lately anyway. If Saudi and Iran are linking to gold and Euro, would make sense for them. bst rgds-]]> Thu, 13 Dec 2007 01:44:15 -0500 I'd like to see it with the little (trade weighted) currencies left out, and be curious to see gold in there (it's a 'currency' too). As a matter of fact, I see a pretty good pattern correlation between oil & gold lately anyway. If Saudi and Iran are linking to gold and Euro, would make sense for them. bst rgds-]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/56405-energy-trader-o-day-and-n-a-natural-gas-tankers?source=feed#comment-105105 105105
here's an update on SFL (12)

"vulnerable charts will see the worst damage".

Your article written 7 days ago, but SFL has since
rallied off oversold support to break out and now consolidating. Some supply overhead but odds
appear that a low is in for awhile. Probable worst
case is further sideways consolidation but at 8%
a comfortable place to park. bst rgds -
]]> Wed, 12 Dec 2007 22:01:25 -0500
here's an update on SFL (12)

"vulnerable charts will see the worst damage".

Your article written 7 days ago, but SFL has since
rallied off oversold support to break out and now consolidating. Some supply overhead but odds
appear that a low is in for awhile. Probable worst
case is further sideways consolidation but at 8%
a comfortable place to park. bst rgds -
]]>