Dawson Lodge

Shorting Coal on Extraordinary Short-Term Demand

Your logic is flawless Stephen but I think your timing is premature.

I believe the recent rallies just highlight a
supply demand imbalance (thats what moves markets) that was hidden until the crunch.

It's not like we're going to run out of coal (or oil either). It's just that we can't get it out and shipped to where it's needed fast enough.

This is a demand pull, supply push is at capacity.

This cycle looks to be a bit bigger than a couple of months. But your point is well taken, and the scale will tip towards oversupply (or reduced demand) soon enough.

Besides, coal in the yard is better than dollars (US) in the bank. That won't change for awhile either.......