bill stenner

Short the Loonie! - Barron's

that has to be one of the most dangerous pieces of advice ive seen given!
The only way the Canadian dollar will sink is if a basket of commodities sinks. Canada is easily 1 year away from this at least. Tradition in the past in a recession is that Canada has followed behind the states in a time frame of a year. Oil, Coal, Gold, Wheat and other Grains would all have to suffer significantly to impact the Loonie. Jobs are robust in Western Canada while the manufacturing center suffers setbacks. That is due to poor government planning which allowed for putting all the manufacturing eggs into one political basket. We also have an excellent relationship with China and they will invest in Canada before the U.S. It is actually likely that we will see a massive spike in the Canadian dollar perhaps heading towards 1.20-30 because of the U.S. deterioration.
I do consider that 80% of our trade is with the U.S. and by far is our greatest trading partner. The fact of the matter is that if the U.S. is buying our resources as their dollar deteriorates this will only compound their troubles. I agree with the parity type numbers for now. My bet is that the Canadian dollar is being speculated upon by traders..before its last drop this was seen through postings that i believe are manipulating this fluctuation just as this article is. That is what really needs to be looked into. The Canadian dollar should not have swung so dramatically in the first place!