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  • Bond yields drop after Fed holds rate  [View news story]
    And don't forget to take advantage of that arbitrage, brought to you by your favorite etfs. If you don't believe me, go look at the 52 week low for spy, ivv, and voo. Nothing like a 20% gain due to arbitrage on ivv.
    Sep 18, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond yields drop after Fed holds rate  [View news story]
    The bond market is a short term trade like everything else. Do long bonds at your own risk, and plan on capital gain, not yield, because that's the trade. I'll take the sp500 stock index, complete with its exposure to, well, everything!
    Sep 18, 2015. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Madness, And I'm Not Talking Hoops  [View article]
    I think the M1/M2 component belongs to the consumer, not the FED. This is the real deal, that consumers just haven't unleashed yet. We need to stop bashing the Fed for simply providing liquidity to bank reserves by way of buying treasuries. The fed is simply allowing the loans if the consumer horse wants to drink. The consumer horse hasn't been very thirsty, but the corporations had no problyem using the credit to issue bonds to finance buy backs. So for the remainder of this year we will see whther the rubber meets the road. Will the consumer actually see enough useful product out there to spend some money, and kick up the M1 velocity, and generate real earnings, OR, will stocks drown because buy backs are slowing down, revealing the emperor with no clothes.
    Apr 2, 2015. 12:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Crash Just Getting Started - Levered Under-Hedged Juniors Like Magnum Hunter In Jeopardy  [View article]
    Never thought I'd be looking at the SP500 trade as it relates to the weekly oil supply report. A few years back natural gas and contango (i.e. UNG) scared me away from the commodity trade in general. Not to mention MLP issues with futures. So here we are looking at USO, supplies, contango, etc., all wrt SP500. My crystal ball says get ready to rock this summer. This is being referred to as a transfer of wealth to the consumer. I like that! If multi-nationals cannot compete on price oversees then drop the price and compete. I can't help but think this is another smoke and mirrors play. A bit more real because this is in fact hitting the bottom line. Welcome to some fundamentals for a change. Keep rates the same and live with a sub 2% GDP for a while.
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs  [View article]
    OBTW, it was you Bill that said in summer of 2013 that bonds were oversold. Indeed you were spot on with that assessment. Unlike your critics, I do listen to you and maybe your buddy Gundlach, because I think you guys know the bond market better than anyone else. Ignoring interest rate perceptions Please tell me, WHY do long treasuries ALWAYS get the higher bid in riskoff situations? Who in their right mind would buy a 30 year bond during 2004 to 2007, when they could have dollar averaged a T-Bill closing the spread gap over the sme time period. Why do pension funds need 30 year issues. Why not trade the short term stuff.
    Mar 15, 2015. 12:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Going To The Dogs  [View article]
    The squeeze should not be put on the consumer, either by pressuring them to spend more in the stores, the stocks, or the savings. It is what it is. IMO, consumers need to have a balance between their spending for the better economy, their confident investing, and debt/savings. Disinflation or deflation to me lately means there is simply too much choice out there, most of it serving no value to society. And it has come at the expense of improvements in infrastructure, education, and yes, even health. So the ME mentality no matter what age you are has set up shop for a while, and unless we the world open borders and redistribute wealth, even at a minimal level, there will be no cashing in on population growth with its huge demand side, which I think is the ultimate driver.
    Mar 15, 2015. 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Will Not Raise Rates... Here's Why  [View article]
    Bonds and rates can go pound sand. Buy some SH low, sell it high with the next broad (stocks, bonds, efa, eem, gld, ???) market crying fit.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour  [View news story]
    Bonds and rates can go pound sand. I'll trim the flaps with SH, thank-you.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Sell-Off: Assessing The Damage And Opportunities  [View article]
    Nice work. To your point, I think the selloff was mixed somewhat. Healthcare and Staples dropped quite a bit as well, where tech and discretionary lost the least. Combine the sector story with tlt and gld, and what I saw was a lot of posturing into cash, getting ready to pounce backe in, while not losing too much ground on what could be winners this year in tech and discretionary. So as much as this was a down day, I do not in the slightest view it as a defensive day. Lets call it stealth offense. I am playing seven sectors right now, and dipped my toe into tlt AGAIN, hoping someday to get the nerve to dollar average that beast down to 80 bucks or so, while drawing 3%. However, when the market rallies again, and tlt falls hard, I'll probably dump the insurance again.
    Mar 8, 2015. 12:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Chart Is Worth 1,000 Words  [View article]
    Also, all one has to do is check out what happened between 2004 and 2007. Yes, plot the 3 month, the ten year, and the 30 year all on one chart, and voila, what a surprise. Short term rates went from 1 to 5 percent or so, but the 10 and 30 held pretty firm. The 30 year actually drifted down. Gee, the infamous inverted curve! My conclusion, most advisors and news talking heads can only comprehend price based on calculated rate/duration, and never factor in the risk off/capital gain associated with the treasuries. If you applied their brain dead price change vs yield/duration to the 30 year note, they would have the price going to zero, and effective yields skyrocketing to double digits. So IMO, the only guys that get it right are the big money pension funds/annuity providers that need to cut checks to pensioners every month. They are the ones that respect the risk-free 2-3 percent interest. And don't worry, they'll deal with inflation when it happens too.
    Feb 27, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity  [View article]
    So does this mean the new Apple ITV will be integrated into the new ICAR. Hold on. I had an old 32inch diagonal which I finally upgraded to a lighter flatter Sony. I thought to myself when I brought it home and fired it up that Apple is essentially missing a no brainer move. Apple, will you please integrate the Apple TV hockey puck, a kinect like sensor, and an XBOX like game box into a single OSX-smart flat screen TV? Pretty please! I'll even buy your variety of custom controllers, suited for whatever game I buy on ITUNES. Then maybe rollout the car!
    Feb 21, 2015. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour  [View news story]
    shiller is taking his US cape of more than 25, and basically taking a trip to european stocks. he says he has half his weight currently in the US equities. i wonder how much european exposure he plans?
    Feb 18, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Companies most bearish on earnings outlooks since 2008  [View news story]
    When the big guys start to buy the insurance a la the 10 and 30 year bills, and when the resulting yields are well below (10 year) or near (30 year) the s and p yield, then the roof is either going to collapse, or we are at the dawn of a mega bull. Hence the volatility.
    Jan 31, 2015. 12:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil, Contagion And Equities: U.S. Equities Are The Next Shoe To Drop  [View article]
    You mention xle and energy related stocks. The s and p is much more diversified than that. Nevertheless, if sentiment wants to take it down, I say, as with Ebola, bring it on. The consumer benefit compared to the extended fallout due to this is roughly 2:1. So once again, as was the case in October, I'll buy the 2 and 4 percent dips all the way down to the Marc Faber rule of thumb, which is a willingness to accept a downside of 50% invested. I only reference him because this particular comment made several weeks ago pretty much mimicked the philosophy I use. Good or bad, I like the validation. Buy the s and p smart and low. Sell specific shares smart and high.
    Dec 16, 2014. 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks close higher for fifth straight week  [View news story]
    Gold rising, treasuries holding tight for almost two weeks. Looking like another dip and buy for the S and P? Organizations that need to cover with fixed income are doing it, long and intermediate. S and P P/E creeping to 20. The bet now is will the market stand earnings yields below 5% without correcting down the road? My history says no.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment