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    • Wed May 7th 13:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Better To Be Lucky Than Smart: The Bear Market is Over
      I'll take dumb luck over brains any day. Agree with fatcat on the luck/fate of the consumer = the future. And also interesting is this excerpt of an interview with Richard Russell, "Dow Theory Letters..." SA 4/14

      "Question: Russell, please answer this, at the January 2008 lows, stock values never came close to what we expect at a primary bear market bottom. What do you make of that?

      Answer: I’ve thought about this situation, just as I thought about this same situation at the October 2002 lows. My answer is the following – neither October 2002 nor January 2008 represented a major or primary bear market bottom. Both, I believe, were important secondary or cyclical correction-bottoms within a continuing primary bull market. I see no other explanation. Remember, one of the most important Dow Theory concepts is that bear markets end with stocks at great values. Stocks were not great values in the classic sense at October 2002 or January 2008.

      Question: Wait, Russell, whoa – are you telling me that we’ve been in a primary bull market ever since the early 1980s, and that we’re still in that same primary bull market?

      Answer: That’s correct. That’s what I’m saying. Somewhere ahead we’re finally going to enter a true primary bear market, maybe one of the greatest and most tragic in history. That future bear market will end with something we haven’t seen since the 1980 to 1982 period, and I’m talking about great values in stocks. And when I say great values I’m talking about blue-chip stocks selling in single-digit price/earnings ratios while at the same time providing dividend yields of 6-7-8%, the kind of yields we last saw at the lows of the early 1980s.

      Question: What do you think could bring stocks down to those levels? What might the market be discounting?

      Answer: Here I’m only guessing, but I think it could be the dollar losing its reserve currency status. If that happens, the US would no longer possess the incredible and singular privilege of printing the same money in which it is indebted. In other words, the dollar would no longer be accepted by the rest of the world as the reserve currency. And the US could no longer print itself into solvency.

      Question: Russell, to get back to your previous statement, you said that we are still in a primary bull market – the same one that started from the lows of the early 1980s. If that’s correct, if we’re still in a bull market, then almost by definition shouldn’t we see new highs in the major stock averages somewhere ahead?

      Answer: Strange, almost impossible as that may seem, yes I think there’s a definite chance that somewhere between 2008 and 2010 we will see new highs in the major Averages. The stock market occasionally does the totally unexpected, and you can put ‘new highs’ in the major stock averages on that list.

      Consider the following – pessimism has now enveloped almost the entire nation. Estimates of home foreclosures are running into the millions of units. The American consumer is buried in debt and stranded with little or no savings. Manufacturing is slowing down in the US. Leading analysts are competing with each other with bearish forecasts. People are calling the Fed impotent or even helpless in the face of the enormity of the problems we face. On top of everything else, the unfunded liabilities in Medicare and Social Security are running into the multi-trillions of dollars. The presidential candidates do not even want to talk about the nation’s potential liabilities. And on top of everything else, we’re mired in one of the longest and most expensive wars in US history.

      Yet slowly, almost imperceptibly, the major stock averages have been building huge bases. Since January 22, the majority of stocks have stopped going down – in fact, they’ve been rising.

      In the face of these improving market conditions, the short interest on the NYSE continues to build. The latest statistics, covering the latest two-week period to March 31, show that the short interest on the NYSE has risen to an all-time record high of 16.142 million shares sold short. If I’m correct, if we have concluded a correction in an ongoing bull market, then this is an explosive situation with a record number of shorts locked in on the wrong side of the market. As the market slowly builds strength, these shorts will be forced to cover.

      Question: Russell, what kind of fundamentals would you expect to accompany a resumption of the primary bull market?

      Answer: An incredible amount of fiat paper (currencies) is being injected into the world markets. There’s also a mind-numbing amount of currency on the sidelines. There is more than $3.5 trillion parked..."
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    • Mon May 5th 08:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Data: Crybabies and Deceivers
      Cash 101. Caveat emptor. Even though the game is extremely complex, when you boil it all down you are left with the fact that when one spends more than they earn, sooner or later, trouble ensues. Some people seem to get this and some don't. Can't really blame the big bad bankers who push little plastic cards, or untenable mortgages, knowing full well that they are making it easy for people to over extend themselves. They know they have a cash machine in the financially illiterate public. Shame on them? Sure. May they rot in hell? Why not. It is usury after all. But it's also cash 101 for a lot of us... if your outgo gets ahead of your income, your upkeep becomes your downfall.
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    • Fri May 2nd 09:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bring Back Greenspan?
      sivere... I'm sure your hearts in the right place, but I'm not going to a site that says "take back the fed" because we never had the fed. The fed belongs to the bankers, and the gov, and they're not going to let anybody take it away from them. They only need the economy like a self sufficient farmer needs his cow. Except that the farmer probably takes better care of his cow. You'll have to take Congress back first.
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    • Fri May 2nd 09:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bring Back Greenspan?
      If you read his book, "Age of Turbulence", he eloquently predicts the possibility that with newer technology, the creation of new complex credit derivatives that even those who created them don't understand, the likely hood was high for the probability of a crisis in the credit markets sometime soon. If he saw the curve coming, why didn't he use his brakes?

      President Woodrow Wilson after creating the Federal Reserve said:

      "A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."
      ~ Woodrow Wilson ... quoted from wikipedia, again... atrobb
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    • Fri May 2nd 08:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fed Remains Dovish - Why?
      President Woodrow Wilson after creating the Federal Reserve said:

      "A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."
      ~ Woodrow Wilson from wikipedia

      The history of the fed is fascinating andlike the book say's, reads like a crime story. It's also complex in that who would want 485 lawyers (Congress) arguing fiscal policy. Difficult re how do we wrest power from the most powerful group in the world. Disgustingly cruel with respect to it's miss management of America's money. And, complex again because there has to be a strong, intelligent, and legal
      regulatory system for the economy. The fact that congress made it legal doesn't change the fact that it's still un-constitutional. The fed serves the banks, not the electorate.
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    • Fri May 2nd 08:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Many thanks to Seeking Alpha!
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    • Thu May 1st 07:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Federal Reserve Become Too Powerful?
      From Wikipedia;

      President Woodrow Wilson after creating the Federal Reserve said:

      "A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."
      ~ Woodrow Wilson
      These "dominant men" are taking care of themselves first.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 13:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Federal Reserve Become Too Powerful?
      Jim Frugal... it appears to be a fait acompli for the chiefs you mention. Where's the SEC in all this. Irrational reward system and selective enforcement.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 11:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      From Housing to Employment: We're in Big Trouble
      Is there a "Morbid Hazard" rule?
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    • Wed Apr 30th 10:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Federal Reserve Become Too Powerful?
      You missed the point, SageNot. Fiscal policy needs management obviously. Quality management would be nice don't you think? The problem is how to get there from here. Mr. Mason is just saying that the Fed is becoming less capable and more powerful.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 08:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has the Federal Reserve Become Too Powerful?
      The Federal Reserve is not accountable to the electorate. It's clear that it is accountable to big money. As we fight to bring Democracy to other parts of the world, maybe we should fight to bring it to the United States of America. Great article by John M. Mason.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 06:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      12 Notes on the Manic Capital Markets
      The big banks are quite cowardly in the game of life. Following the link ... "we can't capitalize earnings here", you read the authors take on level 3 classifications, and gee whiz, I wish I could play by those rules. If I make -$300k, I just enter $800k and write myself into the black. "Mark to Make Believe" lol
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    • Tue Apr 29th 10:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Be Distracted By Greenspan-Blaming
      sivere... We've never had the Fed. Constitutionally, Congress is the only entity that can legally print money. If we had 485 lawyers arguing about fiscal policy, yikes! The Fed is the central bankers third swing and a hit after two misses. Jefferson's nightmare for America. If the government was smart they'd come clean about the Federal Reserve Act, and then fool us with more fancy rhetoric into thinking we can have a say about our banking system. You know, like we have a say about our health care system, energy policy, education, tax code, etc. Democracy seems like the inheritance that our clever uncle was able to finesse away from us because he knows the estate lawyer.
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    • Tue Apr 29th 09:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Be Distracted By Greenspan-Blaming
      Roger, if I read you right, you are saying quit crying in your soup. Greenspan is the Hercules of obfuscation. Politicians love obfuscation. Why do you think he retained the (non-elected) top job in Washington for 19 years? If your the president of a company for 20 years and the company is going to go belly up immediately after you leave unless you can get a $30 billion loan from your uncle ... you don't look so good, no matter how well you can speak.
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    • Mon Apr 28th 11:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Big Money Is Betting on Inflation, Not the Economy
      galewhitaker... My questions too. Talking about $200 oil, or $70 oil if they boost the dollars value 10%... who's side is the gov on? Why is that even a question if it's in their power to do. $200 oil kill's a lot of consumers dead. GDP has to shrink to what $5 trillion? Dramatic maybe, but this stinks of an agenda that one can't find written between the lines.
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