Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Going back to a comment by Matt Blackman from his article, Back to the Future in the Credit Derivative Time Machine, SA March 10
"As Jim Grant said in his March 2007 interview, the CDO creators and rating agencies built their models that basically discounted the probability for a real estate price meltdown (since median prices had not dropped significantly since the Great Depression). There were no contingencies for such an event as evidenced by the fact that a large number of SIVs did not have accompanying mortgage documents (which is now rendering them unenforceable in the courts). In other words, such an outcome was considered a black swan event when such events were determined to be near impossibilities.
My contention is that mortgages represent a relatively small part of the total $530 trillion derivatives market that has been built on similar assumptions. Like a black hole, few have any idea how these instruments work and what will happen when the unexpected happens." Looks like we are beginning to see how they work.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Re "Greenspan on the US Economy..." Greenspan is great with words, great to read and listen to. But something stinks around the Fed. In his book "The Age of Turbulence" he writes"...Rising leverage appears to be the result of vast improvements in technology and infrastructure, not significantly more risk-inclined humans. Obviously, a surge of debt leverage above what the newer technologies can support invites a crisis. I'm not sure where the tipping point is." (slightly paraphrased) And now "...We have not confronted a situation like this in over half a century," and, "The problem is not the lack of regulation but unrealistic expectations about what regulators are able to prevent." Well someone should explain the $530 trillion in cdos as it rips it's way through the belly of the economy like a butchers knife.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Back to the Future in the Credit Derivative Time Machine, SA March 10
"As Jim Grant said in his March 2007 interview, the CDO creators and rating agencies built their models that basically discounted the probability for a real estate price meltdown (since median prices had not dropped significantly since the Great Depression). There were no contingencies for such an event as evidenced by the fact that a large number of SIVs did not have accompanying mortgage documents (which is now rendering them unenforceable in the courts). In other words, such an outcome was considered a black swan event when such events were determined to be near impossibilities.
My contention is that mortgages represent a relatively small part of the total $530 trillion derivatives market that has been built on similar assumptions. Like a black hole, few have any idea how these instruments work and what will happen when the unexpected happens."
Looks like we are beginning to see how they work.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
Greenspan is great with words, great to read and listen to. But something stinks around the Fed. In his book "The Age of Turbulence" he writes"...Rising leverage appears to be the result of vast improvements in technology and infrastructure, not significantly more risk-inclined humans. Obviously, a surge of debt leverage above what the newer technologies can support invites a crisis. I'm not sure where the tipping point is." (slightly paraphrased) And now "...We have not confronted a situation like this in over half a century," and, "The problem is not the lack of regulation but unrealistic expectations about what regulators are able to prevent." Well someone should explain the $530 trillion in cdos as it rips it's way through the belly of the economy like a butchers knife.